Tuesday, December 22, 2009

Paul leads big

If there was any doubt Rand Paul is a serious candidate for the Republican Senate nomination in Kentucky it can be cast away. Our first poll of the race finds him leading Trey Grayson 44-25.

Paul is, as the conventional wisdom suggests, drawing his strongest support from Republicans who are unhappy with their party. He has a 54-22 lead over Grayson with voters who are unhappy with the GOP in Congress and a 54-18 advantage with folks who think the party's grown too liberal.

His support is broader than that though- he has a 40-25 lead even with people who like the job Republicans in Congress are doing and a 38-28 advantage with ones who are comfortable with where their party is ideologically.

Despite Paul's early advantage this race could change a lot between now and the election, primarily because neither of the candidates are all that well known at this point. A plurality don't know enough about Paul to have formed an opinion of him and a majority have no feelings one way or the other yet toward Grayson.

Among those who do have perceptions formed about them 39% view Paul favorably to 13% unfavorable and 22% view Grayson favorably to 15% unfavorable.

Paul's current strong standing certainly speaks to the increasingly favorable prospects for candidates running against the Republican establishment across the country, especially on the heels of polling last week showing Marco Rubio closing in on or even taking the lead against Charlie Crist. It's going to be interesting to see if a lot more of these insurgent candidates crop up as we turn the calendar to 2010.

Full results here


Unknown said...

Great news!

The liberty movement is gaining momentum!


Anonymous said...

Word on the street is that Grayson is considering taking his chances by dropping out of the Republican primary and running as a Democrat. The Washington insiders have invested too much in him and this may be the only way he can win the Senate seat.

Anonymous said...

Paul gains a lot of credibility thanks to his family name. Let's get him out there talking to voters one-on-one and in front of the public in a rally or two before his eventual election.

Anonymous said...

Dr Paul has been working very hard, and it appears to show in this poll. Perhaps this will encourage Mr Grayson to be more open to debates.

Matthew said...

I'd be a lot happier about this if Rand were a chip off the old block. I am hearing whispers here and there that he is not the man his father is.

Anonymous said...

Hey Anonymous,

You must not be in KY. He's been all over the place since around May or June. Speaking at all kinds of public events and Republican events as well. He is working hard for this, it did just come from his family name. That has helped, no doubt, but there has been a tremendous amount of effort behind these polling numbers.

No success comes without effort.

Unknown said...


Quit trolling. Rand is out there for all to see and has baan for a while. There is absolutely no reason to believe he won't represent Kentuckians as well as his father does Texans!

John Washburn said...

My depressing fear is that Rand Paul will recieve the most votes as cast by electors but not the most votes as reported by the black box election machines.

I hope and pray I am incorrect.

Anonymous said...

good news for the Democratic Party. Once they find out what PAul is really about, it should boost the Democrat.

Anonymous said...

Marco Rubio is a fraud - he's a wolf in sheep's clothing. He's a neocon and NO friend of liberty.

vakeraj said...

I attended a Rand Paul fundraiser in Washington, DC in September, back when he was behind Grayson in the polls. You could definitely tell that he was working hard against the establishment to pull out an upset.

Unknown said...

McConnel wanted Bunning out, because he wouldn't play nice and do what the country-club republicans told him to do. Mitch thought he could just plop another interchangeable RINO in that seat, and I'm sure that Greyson would have been perfectly happy to play ball.

Well Mitch, you weren't expecting a man of integrity to stand up and run for that office, were you? Rand Paul's going to be the next senator from Kentucky, and you better clean up your act, or another Ron Paul Republican is going to kick your ass the next time you're trying to get nominated.

You're on notice, Senator McConnell. We've had enough of business as usual.


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