Wednesday, March 5, 2008

Democratic Tracking Poll: Governor

Bev Perdue 52
Richard Moore 25

It may not quite be time to write the obituary on Moore's campaign but it will be soon if he doesn't get it turned around quick. 27 points is awfully hard to make up in two months.

There is no one factor to point to in explaining Perdue's meteoric gain- she has made strong gains in pretty much every demographic group. Her lead among registered Democrats has improved from 15 to 29. With independents she's gone from being down 3 to up 16. With women a 17 point lead is now 33 points. With men a 9 point advantage is now 20. With white votes a 7 point lead is up to 22. Her gain with black voters is small- a five point gain from a 37 point lead to a 42 point lead.

Moore probably got more bad news last night when Hillary Clinton pulled out a couple huge victories because if North Carolina sees the same increases in black and female turnout that its neighboring states did in their primaries that's likely to benefit Perdue as well.

Moore has very good people working for him who doubtless have some tricks up their sleeves, but the climb is starting to look more like getting up Mt. Everest than Mt. Mitchell.

Full results here

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