Wednesday, March 26, 2008

Republican Tracking Poll: Governor

Pat McCrory 27
Fred Smith 24
Bill Graham 8
Bob Orr 7
Elbie Powers 1

Pat McCrory has regained the lead after falling into a tie last week. He has actually moved into first place in the Triangle on the heels of intense television advertising in the market over the last two weeks. This is the first time in the race McCrory has had the lead in a region outside of the reach of Charlotte tv stations.

Unaffiliated voters continue to be important to McCrory's success. While he leads Smith just 27-26 with registered Republicans, he has a 32-12 advantage with independents.

The poll also showed that 56% of likely voters said they could change their minds between now and the primary. Bob Orr has the weakest support of any candidate, with 82% of his supporters saying they could jump ship. Bill Graham has a similar problem with 67% of folks currently intending to vote for him saying they could choose someone else. Orr and Graham's weak support is likely a reflection of the fact that this has become a two person race between McCrory and Smith and folks whose first choice is Orr or Graham might defect if they want to have more of an impact on the outcome. Smaller numbers of people for Fred Smith (50%) and Pat McCrory (52%) also said they could change their minds.

Full results here.

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