Tuesday, March 18, 2008

Florida General Election Poll

John McCain 47
Hillary Clinton 43

John McCain 50
Barack Obama 39

Bad feelings between the Democratic Presidential candidates have allowed John McCain to take the lead in potential Florida general election match ups.

The key findings here:

-Hillary Clinton is only getting 51% of the black vote against McCain, a clear indication that Obama supporters unhappy with her are not sure at this point that they will even vote for her if she is the Democratic nominee. 36% of African American respondents said they were undecided.

-A similar problem exists for Obama among self identified Democratic voters. He leads only 60-25 with that group over McCain. It's going to be hard for a candidate to win most any state where he only pulls 60% of the vote from his own party.

-For all the talk from conservative Republicans about how they don't like John McCain, he has unified folks in his own party around his candidacy. He gets over 80% of the Republican vote against both Clinton and Obama.

The bottom line:

-Clinton and Obama's numbers are artificially low at this point since resentment between supporters of the two candidates seems to be getting normally Democratic voters to say that they are undecided or even that they will vote for McCain if their preferred nominee doesn't get the nod.

Those folks will probably return to the fold once a Democratic candidate is chosen- if they feel that person is chosen through a legitimate process. But if there is significant resentment about how the eventual nominee gets to that point, there is a very good chance it could throw the election to McCain this fall.

Full results here.

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