When we did our first Texas poll, we showed Barack Obama leading the white male vote by 21 points and the state tied. When we did our last one we showed Hillary Clinton leading with that group and with a six point lead overall. The contest ended with a four point Clinton victory and a split white male vote.
White women tend to support Hillary Clinton. Blacks voters support Barack Obama. That's made white men the swing demographic in this election. And it's a group Obama needs to do better with in North Carolina.
Our poll this week showed Clinton leading 54-38 with white men in the state. Last month she had a similar 48-31 advantage. For the most part Obama is not winning primaries where he has that big a deficit.
If black voters turn out in record numbers Obama might be able to win North Carolina without faring better with white men. But his top goal as he opens up a campaign in the state should be improving his status with that demopgraphic.