Wednesday, March 19, 2008

Ohio General Election Poll

Hillary Clinton 45
John McCain 44

John McCain 49
Barack Obama 41

PPP polls released over the last two days in Ohio and Florida show the possible negative effects the bad blood between supporters of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton could have for Democratic prospects to regain the White House this fall.

Clinton is showing major problems with African American voters. She leads McCain just 47-27 with that demographic in Ohio and gets just 51% of the black vote in Florida. It is going to be very hard for Democrats to win this year without getting at least 75% of African American votes, but for now it seems that black Obama supporters are having doubts about voting Democratic this fall if she is the nominee.

Obama similarly is having trouble with white Democrats. He leads McCain just 59-29 in Ohio and 53-31 in Florida with that group. It appears there that Clinton supporters may be undecided or even intending to vote for McCain if their preferred candidate doesn't win the nomination.

Republicans are showing no such problems with party unity. McCain gets 86% against Obama and 88% against Clinton among Republicans in Ohio.

These numbers show how the protracted fight for the Democratic nomination could have a serious negative impact on the eventual nominee's ability to defeat McCain. The party seems particularly likely to have problems if folks don't feel like the eventual standard bearer was chosen through a legitimate process.

The full Ohio poll here.

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