Tuesday, March 11, 2008

Survey USA North Carolina Numbers

Survey USA has its newest North Carolina numbers out and for the first time Jim Neal leads in a poll. The survey shows him with a 21-18 lead over Kay Hagan.

Although I hold Survey USA in the highest regard of any of our competitors, I think the trend in their polling of this particular primary has been bizarre. When they first surveyed it in November, 70% of respondents said they supported either Hagan or Neal. Now that figure is down to 39%, four months further along into the primary season:











That just is not a normal trend, although they are moving closer to what we're showing (the two combined for 32%.)

I think it's possible Neal is doing better than our polls are showing, although I doubt he's really winning. I hope Civitas will poll it later this month to give a third opinion.

They show the Democratic race for Governor with Bev Perdue at 44 and Richard Moore at 28. I would guess the margin in that race is somewhere between the 16 they're showing and the 27 we're showing, but either way it's a lot.

They have the Presidential race at Barack Obama with 49% and Hillary Clinton with 41%. I think his lead is likely somewhere in that 6-10 point range given the certainty now that the North Carolina primary will matter and probably bring with it higher black turnout.

Finally they show the Republican primary for Governor tightening with Pat McCrory at 26%, Fred Smith at 18%, Bill Graham at 16%, and Bob Orr at 12%. Last month they had McCrory leading by 17 points. I think this race is still closer than they're showing it. The poll is good news for Graham and Orr. It's the closest Graham has been to Smith in a while, and according to my archive it's the first poll anyone has conducted showing Orr in double figures since the November Civitas Poll.

Here are the results. I haven't seen the crosstabs yet but will break them down when I do.

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