Tuesday, March 25, 2008

Democratic Tracking Poll: President

Barack Obama 55
Hillary Clinton 34

Barack Obama gave North Carolina its first taste of campaign fever last week with appearances in Charlotte and Fayetteville, and our newest poll shows that the voters appreciated it. This 21 point lead is the largest he has shown in any NC polling to date, and an indication that the Wright controversy isn't causing him any long term harm at least in this state.

Obama's largest gain came in the Triangle, where he now leads 65-26. He got lots of free media coverage in that tv market last week because of his major address on the war in Fayetteville.

The poll also showed that a possible John Edwards endorsement wouldn't do much for Hillary Clinton's prospects in the state. 31% of voters who are either undecided or support Obama said an Edwards endorsement would make them less likely to vote for Clinton, compared to just 12% who said it would make them more likely to support her. A majority of voters, 57%, said an Edwards endorsement would have no impact on them one way or the other.

It appears that while the possibility of an Edwards endorsements gives pundits a lot of fodder for discussion, it would be unlikely to make much of an impact on the race even in his home state.

Obama has made significant gains across every demographic category since PPP's last poll, leading in every age group, with both genders, and pulling within seven points of Clinton even with white voters.

Full results here

25 comments:

Anonymous said...

All I needed to know to come up with the same results was how many of the poll takers were black and how many were white and the ratio that whites voted.

Considering blacks are now voting on avg about 90%, I took the % of blacks which was 34% multiplied it by 90% which equals 31% votes from blacks for Obama.

Now I take the % of whites that voted which is 59% and apply the the percentage by which they voted for Obama which was 40% and that comes out to 24% votes from Whites.

31% plus 24% equals the 55% for Obama.

Now the reality is the percentage of african americans in NC as per recent census is around 21%. So this poll is off.

Anonymous said...

I think it is a sad day when most of us no longer take the time to weigh out the true qualifications of our President of these US.I suggest you go online check out the Chicago news articles on Mr Obama, Brian Ross investigative team, Jack Kass reports All ties to Tony Rezko. Then look up Nadhmi Auchi to see if you still feel Mr Obama has the right judgemen to be commander in chief. there is a lot of info the main news is not carrying in this area. Mr Obama is very eloquent but very smooth to change the spotlight to something else to avoid attention on him.

Tom Jensen said...

Anonymous #1, African Americans account for about 36% of registered Democrats in North Carolina.

tg said...

Hmm, I give this poll the same weight I give the one showing Hillary up by 26 in PA: not too much.

Anonymous said...

No it's 21%

Says right here

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/37000.html

Tom Jensen said...

Yes, 21% of the state's population is black. But we're talking about the percentage of the Democratic primary electorate that is likely to be black, and that's in the 30s. If you don't understand what the difference is I'm not sure what I can do for you.

Anonymous said...

Anon, if you keep digging you'll find more stuff to keep you up at night. Check out HRC and the last person she truly cared for: Vince Foster and that should keep you up until November........

Anonymous said...

quote from one "anonymous": Mr Obama is very eloquent but very smooth to change the spotlight to something else to avoid attention on him.
HAHAHA...AND HILLARY CLINTON DOESN'T DO THE EXACT SAME THING?! PULEEEZ!!! SHE IS THE QUEEN OF DOING THAT. GIMME A BREAK.

Anonymous said...

NC voters are seeing the commercials with Wright...Republican ad. My guess is that this will be a close race. If I were in a position to inform blacks I would tell them to vote Hillary in NC because it would show that they were thinking rather than just voting skin color. There is an old saying, "If everyone is thinking the same then no one is doing much thinking." Think about it in terms of if we are asked "What color is grass?" Everyone without thinking much will answer "green". Now look at the recent primaries where the white male vote, white female vote, over 65 vote or under 30 vote, college educated, or high school drop out vote......all show a split vote, some for Hillary and some for Obama whether it is 60/40 or 65/35...shows at least some people are thinking people......untill you see the black vote...90/10 or 92/8%......shows no thinking just votes for skin color. Blacks prove you can think and do not all vote for Obama.

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I commend Obama for initiating a policy to not accept donations from large corporations, etc. But why not also include welfare recipients as a list to exclude from donations since they are using taxpayer's money.

ERICKA MENA said...

IF AMERICA IS VOTING FOR A MAN WHO PREACHES TO A CROWD, I AM CALLING RADICALISM!!!!! I'M JUST SAYING, I WOULD LIKE TO THINK THE AMERICAN PUBLIC WAS SMARTER THAN THAT! ALL THIS MAN, BARACK OBAMA, HAS DONE IS PREACHED ABOUT "HOPE & CHANGE"!
HOW IS THIS MAN GOING TO CARRY AMERICA INTO THE 21ST CENTURY WITH PREACHING??? NO EXPERIENCE IN SERVING HIS COUNTRY, OR SENATE!! LIKE HILARY CLINTON SAID "ALL HE HAS IS A SPEACH IN 2002"

I MEAN REALLY YOU'RE GONNA HIRE MICKEY MOUSE INTO THE WHITE HOUSE? WAKE UP PEOPLE!! BE PROUD OF YOUR COUNTRY ALWAYS!! SO HYPOCRITICAL TO TURN YOUR BACK AND SAY WE ARE NOT PROUND WHEN NO MATTER WHAT IS GOING ON, YOU SHOULD ALWAYS BE PROUD AND HAVE YOUR COUNTRY & LEADERS BACK!!! AND WE CAN NOT SAY BARACK OBAMA IS A TRUE AMERICAN!! HE WILL NOT WEAR THE AMERICAN FLAG PIN, WILL NOT CROSS HIS HEART DURING OUR ANTHEM, I CAN GO ON!! OH AND MICHELLE OBAMA "FOR THE 1ST TIME IN MY ADULT LIFE I AM PROUD OF MY COUNTRY" WTF IS THAT ABOUT!??

I AM 26, AND I FEEL AMERICA IS AND ALWAYS HAS BEEN NOTHING BUT HOPE & CHANGE!!! I MEAN WE ARE THE GREATEST COUNTRY IN THE WORLD!! WE HAVE WHATEVER WE WANT AT OUR FINGERTIPS (IF YOU ARE NOT LAZY OR SCARED)!! THAT TO ME IS HOPE & CHANGE!! DON'T F*&K THAT UP!!!(SORRY I'M PISSED)

PLEASE VOTE FOR DEDICATION, EXPERIENCE, STRENGTH, CHARACTER, VALOR AND PATRIOTISM!! JOHN McCAIN, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 2008
GOD HELP US ALL!!!

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