Thursday, March 13, 2008

Republican SurveyUSA Crosstabs

Looking at the crosstabs on the Republican Survey USA poll, here's what jumps out:

-Pat McCrory has his largest lead, 29-19 over Fred Smith, with voters who describe their ideology as conservative. Smith has been hammering on the McCrory is a liberal thing in joint appearances but the reality is that very few people are watching or paying attention to those. He needs to start spending money to get that message across either through tv or direct mail.

-Bill Graham actually has a small (26-21) lead over McCrory with unaffiliated voters. This contrasts with the conventional wisdom and what our recent polls have shown. It's worth noting that Survey USA is projecting a much smaller number of unaffiliated voters in the GOP primary than we are which makes the margin of error on this particular crosstab pretty high.

-As usual McCrory is coasting off an enormous advantage in the greater Charlotte area. He is actually polling at single digits in the rest of the state. He is running last, even behind Bob Orr, in the Triangle, Triad, and eastern North Carolina. It will be interesting to see whether those numbers improve now that he has gone on the air this week.

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