Thursday, March 6, 2008

Presidential Impact on North Carolina

For now when PPP does its tracking poll, it only talks to folks who have a record of voting in primary elections.

We're likely to change that now since it appears our Presidential primary will have an impact on the Democratic contest for President.

That will bring out a lot of new voters, and the conventional wisdom is that the new folks are tending to support Barack Obama. What impact would that have on the Democratic races for Governor and Senate?

In the Governor's race it looks like it would benefit Bev Perdue over Richard Moore. She leads 55-21 among Obama supporters and by a smaller 51-29 margin with Clinton supporters. New voters coming out for Obama could help her.

In the Senate race Kay Hagan is doing better with Clinton supporters than she is with Obama supporters. She leads Jim Neal 27-9 with Clinton folks and 22-10 with people inclined to support Obama.

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