Sunday, August 31, 2008

Changing demographics have North Carolina trending blue: a new kind of Independent as well

PPP has released a new report comparing the voting preferences of native North Carolinians to non-native North Carolinians. I am posting the report on the blog in four posts- this is post three. You can read the whole report here.

In addition to Democrats who actually vote for Democrats replacing those who do not in the population, the increased representation of independents among those who have migrated to the state has the potential to turn it bluer as well:


Native Independents

Non-Native Independents


John McCain 47-22

Barack Obama 50-32


Elizabeth Dole 37-30

Kay Hagan 45-26


Pat McCrory 35-30

Bev Perdue 47-27

These numbers help to explain why the state is turning bluer, even as fewer voters identify as Democrats. Non-native independents support Barack Obama at a higher rate than native Democrats.


Anonymous said...

Your numbers are messed up.
Perdue isn't running for Senate, and Hagan isn't running for Governor

Tom Jensen said...

Oops. Thanks for the heads up, I fixed it.

Anonymous said...

Non-native typically register as Indies when they first arrive, and then later identify with one party or the other. I see the non-native Indies as occupying a holding position till they assmilate further and feel comfortable identifying themselves with either party. If true, expect Dem registration numbers to pick up in the next decade (by the way Dem registration numbers are already up this year, Reps (at least in terms of percentage share) have DECLINED, and Indies are up).

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