Sunday, August 17, 2008

McCain pulls even in Ohio

Barack Obama 45
John McCain 45

John McCain has pulled even in Ohio, after trailing in PPP's June and July polls of the state. He and Barack Obama are each at 45%, with 10% of Ohio voters reporting as undecided.

Party unity is an issue for Obama in the Buckeye State. While McCain has an 89-7 lead with voters who identify as Republicans, Obama has a narrower 75-17 edge with Democrats. Delving deeper into the numbers, it appears that residual unhappiness from Hillary Clinton supporters could be the cause. The 25% of Democrats who currently either support McCain or are undecided are disproportionately middle aged, white, and female or in other words prototypical Clinton voters. Ohio is one state where some joint appearances of the former Democratic foes might do the nominee some good.

Obama is able to keep the race tied overall due to a 45-28 lead with independents voters. Beyond that the crosstabs come out as one might expect- Obama leads with women, voters under 45, and African Americans while McCain has the edge with men, older voters, and whites.

It appears Ohio will once again be among the most highly contested states this fall.

Full results here.

37 comments:

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moondancer said...

It comes down to this: one of the two will win, in spite of PPP.

foony c said...

So PPP gives McCain 18% of the black vote? Last time I checked, a Dem defeated Blackwell; if McCain gets 10% of the black vote, I'd be shocked.

John Nail said...

Between the AA vote discrepancy and the base at 75% this race is not tied. AA will go 90% for Obama and 85%+ for the base which is game over in OH

Jason Gill said...

Don't forget to factor in that many AA voters will again be denied the right to the ballot, and all the other devious political haberdashery sure to be executed by the GOP appointed electioneers.

Anonymous said...

Those damn GOP'ers and their hats!!!

foony c said...

Jason, Blackwell isn't SOS anymore; the field reps and other sundry election personnel, especially in Cuyahoga Country, will be Dem

obamawill said...

i know this seems tough to obama supporters, but remember this obama can still win the election without ohio! Mccain absolutely cannot win the general election without ohio period. the other positive element to this is the convention may foster a sense of unity among dems, and also clinton appearances in ohio for obama will also help. The only thing i would be worried about is if Romney got put on as vp - this might really help mccain (the weasel) because of his economic experience, which may subdue the number one concern on the minds of ohio voters. And if obama really wants to seal the deal, just put hillary on the ticket, it will be a landslide!

POed Lib said...

The SoS is now a Dem in Ohio. She will ensure that the kind of crappy games that the traitorous turd Blackwell was playing will not occur this time. Ohio has a Dem SoS, the registration of new voters is 6:1 Democratic, and Hillary will campaign there in the Fall.

I believe that OH will go Democratic

Anonymous said...

McCain is not going to get anywhere near 18% of the AA vote and he's surely going to get more than 28% of Independent voters. Why even bother publishing these results? They are highly suspect to say the least.

Continue to Spread the Word!!! said...

Huh wasn't it I myself the one ripping on PPP for the 13-25 point party id advantage you gave the Dems in the first two polls.

Well now its a 7 point edge for the Dems, which is fair since 04, and Obama can't even hold a lead....

You notice the Dems in this poll, and the PUMA effect. Come November, this state will move Red because of the HRC voters.

Anonymous said...

The Stupidest F***'in Generation hasn't let me down yet.

Alexis said...

Tom,

Could you explain how Obama lost 12% black support from the previous poll? I think that is why he is tied with McCain right now.

Anonymous said...

Poor spread the word. The undecideds left in Ohio (10% worth)are overwhelmingly Dems yet somehow Ohio goes red?

obamawill said...

guys don't forget the early voting window in ohio, which means people can vote a month early= lazy young people will get a chance! and also same day voting= good for young people again.

the obama camp is so genius they told me forget about polling now, its gonna change, they said its all about registering voters and mobilizing them to vote!

SpaceCat said...

God save us all from a McCain presidency!

Richard said...

And then Monday's poll, and thursday's and then 1 September. Bullcrap, I say. This play by play is just so much blather.

Anonymous said...

Reasons not to trust this poll:

No demographics provided.

Claims nearly 1 in 5 or 18 percent of AA vote will go to McCain LOL...seriously.

Likely Voters model (i.e. not real results) AND their actual results aren't provided.

Shows 17 pt Obama advantage amongst Independent voters yet still tied overall = heavily weighted GOP turnout OR very small Independent turnout.

Basically, this is a cold doctored poll paid for by friends of McCain.

Anonymous said...

I would love to have good polling early--but this is silliness.

PPP, provide your real results, not simply the LV model. For all we know 75 percent of the people called said they're voting Obama.

Secondly, provide party ID, age of REAL voters, not results after your Likely Voter screen.

Explain your screen. Any reputable firm will stand behind their results by explaining methodology. You either trust it, you don't trust it, or you're deliberately manipulating.

If this were an assignment for undergraduate-level students, it would certainly not receiving a passing grade. Worst off, you guys know it and still put this out for some reason. One wonders why.

obamawill said...

okay i must admitt ppp is a little of with this one, come one 1-5 black voters going for Mccain...LOL reverse bradley effect! but one thing they really captured in this poll: the only reason obama isn't up big in ohio and elsewhere is because of hillary supporters. this is also reflected in the more then ten point advantage democrats enjoy over repulicans nation wide for presidential polling. and i do TRUST ppp!

MVRed.com said...

PUBLIC POLICY POLLING is a DEM POLLSTER. My God folks! They gave the Dems a 7 point party id edge here and he still cant get a lead! WOWWOWOWOOW!

In 2004, the GOP had a 5 point party id edge, and after the collapse of 2006, I think a Dem 5-7 point edge is fair.

But PPP in June when they had Obama up 11:
Dems: 55%
GOP: 30%
25% Party Id edge in the June Ohio poll. That is BS.

In the July PPP Poll when they had Obama up 8:
Dems: 46%
Gop: 33%
13% Party Id edge in the July Ohio poll. More BS.

Now we finally see a poll that has it at 7% party id edge, which is fair I presume, and Obama can't even hold a lead! 25% of Dems are backing McCain or not sure yet. How many times have I come on here and told you guys that the HRC voters in Ohio are not going to vote Obama!

So in reality, with PPP's biased polling [they are a Dem pollster], that is the only reason Ohio is .6 for McCain right now. If their polls used the 5-7 point party id edge like they did this month, McCain's average lead would be closer to 2-3 points right now.

Anonymous said...

We don't even know if those LV's were weighted according to the 7 pt difference Mr. MVRED...hence the whole problem. AFTER their screen there was a 7 pt difference in favor of Dems, but we don't know that it was even a factor (although it probably was factored considering the discussion on this blog earlier .

Keep in mind, the national party ID difference is more like 10 pts. Keep in mind the record Dem primary turnout, and all of those people will vote. Keep in mind the surge in voter registration in OH. Also consider that Kerry only lost by 3 pts in OH in 04 where exits showed a 5pt GOP party ID lead. And finally, remember that in 2006 showed Ohio with a 3 pt Dem party exit advantage. Finally, if you link to the earlier post you'll find robo-calling SUSA, who don't use party ID to screen, had a 52-28, or 24 pt Dem party ID lead just this June in OH.

So to sum up.

1. We don't know if the voter ID was even factored.

2 We don't know the results of the actual survey.

3. If factored, 7 pts seems to underestimate Dem advantage rather substantially.

4. As mentioned previously, 1 in 5 AA voters aren't going to McCain, the real number will probably be around 1 in 20 and the percentage of AA voters will be higher than all previous years.

5. Taking a coarse grained view, the poll is completely insane. Kerry lost by 3pts where there was a 5 pt GOP advantage in 04 (less than the difference in party ID). According to the poll, Obama would only be tied if there is a 12 pt swing. If true, Obama is going to far under-perform Kerry, a pretty unlikely result.

So...this is either A) a harbinger that Obama will LOSE by historic margins. Or it's B) a nonsensical poll.

My hunch is B.

Anonymous said...

This poll is obviously a lie. Primary Stats for Ohio:

Democrats 2,233,156
Republicans 1,018,865

More than 2-1 voted in the Democratic side of the Primary.

I just spent two weeks in Ohio and saw countless Obama and Ron Paul signs, and only ONE McCain bumpersticker.

MVRed.com said...

Signs don't win elections, votes do. Listen to liberal radio stations in NE Ohio, Democratic hosts, who are backing McCain.

High taxes have destroyed NE Ohio, hence why McCain destroys Obama on taxes in this poll.

The party id is not 25 or 13... On election day I doubt its 5-7. but for the sake of the argument, I think its funny Obama can't lead when given a 7 point id cushion!

Anonymous said...

Wow! Voters are fleeing the Democratic Party in droves. From 55% of the state to 42% of the state in two months!

And Obama still can't get a lead even when he is given a 7% head start!

Sal said...

I will wager that if this poll favored Obama, all his supporters would be saying it is spot on rather than debunking it with their posts.

bold said...

OH is completely out of play due to the Diebold voting machines. Diebhold himself promised to "deliver Ohio to Bush" and he did just that. The machines are rigged, McCain will win. Obama must concentrate elsewhere. Hillary or no Hillary, the Diebold machines will assure a McCain win.

Don't even bother polling OH. The outcome is already determined.

obamawill said...

bold im sorry but i think you are an IDIOT. you don't take into account the consequences of rigging an election in Ohio. American is corrupt, but undermining democracy by rigging voting machines is a plain stupid idea. Do you really thing anyone would take that risk.... the negative effects would be profound and irreversible! thing longer

Continue to Spread the Word!!! said...

Despite these voting machines leaving a paper trail now, they still don't buy it. The liberals are idiots. They can't accept it come election day that the conservative gets more votes than the liberal.

Last time I checked, the Dems did pretty darn well in Ohio in 2006.

voice of reason said...

Obamawill...you and the other whiners (victims and paranoids who think everyone is out to get you) are hurting your candidates chances to win the whitehouse. Your party doesn't need the crybaby attitude. They need you to go out in your neighborhoods, canvas for them and get on the working bandwagon..get off the crybaby blog bandwagon. Your energy is wasted here and you're making a fool out of yourself and your party.

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