Sunday, August 24, 2008

Virginia: few voters up for grabs

PPP analysis finds a Virginia electorate where the vast majority of voters really have their minds made up. Only 8% of voters in the poll were undecided. We also asked those who expressed support for McCain or Obama whether they might change their vote between now and November, or if they were firmly committed to their choice. Only 10% of those with a preference said they would consider switching sides. That accounts for 9.2% of respondents overall and that combined with the 8% undecided leaves about 17.2% of voters in the state 'persuadable' over the next two months.

Who are these voters that might determine the race in Virginia, and possibly the nation as a whole?

51% of them identify as independents, while 27% are Democrats and 22% are Republicans. This is significant because it's an indication that it's not disaffected Democratic Clinton supporters who could swing the election here, as seems to be the case in some other states.

They're overwhelmingly white (87%), disproportionately male (52%), and more representative of the oldest and youngest segments of the electorate than the population as a whole with 19% under 30 and 20% over 65.

One possible good sign for Barack Obama is that these folks support Mark Warner 63-12 over Jim Gilmore. Presidential candidates are supposed to have coattails for Senate candidates, but Warner's overwhelming popularity with these swing voters can only work to Obama's benefit.

It's likely to be a cliffhanger in Virginia.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

The Dems can lose Ohio and Florida, but win the election if they carry Virginia. That assumes he carries the Kerry states of 2004plus Iowa and New Mexico where he is up big.

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