Three numbers for why Pat McCrory could win:
-35. That’s the percentage of white Democrats in the
-54. That’s the percentage of voters planning to support Libertarian Michael Munger who are also planning to vote for Barack Obama. Usually you would expect a Libertarian candidate to pull from the Republicans, but Munger has run to the left of Perdue on issues like immigration and capital punishment and because of that he seems to be pulling most of his support from liberal Democrats. If the Governor’s race ends up being decided by less than a point that could be a difference maker.
-9. That’s how many points ahead of John McCain Pat McCrory is running in suburbia across the state. His message of building more roads and infrastructure in the fastest growing parts of the state seems to be resonating there.
Three numbers for why Bev Perdue could win:
-91. That’s the percentage of people who have already cast a vote for Barack Obama who also voted for Perdue. There had been some concern about whether all the new voters coming out to support Obama would also vote the rest of the ticket, and for the most part it seems they are. That could help put Perdue over the top.
-20. That’s the lead Perdue has in her home region of eastern
-24. That’s the margin by which people who have already voted supported Perdue, 60-36. The big question is whether enough Republicans will turn out on election day itself to make up for the headstart that Perdue- and Obama and Hagan as well- have built up with the most eager voters.