Friday, October 31, 2008

By the Numbers: Governor's Race

Three numbers for why Pat McCrory could win:

-35. That’s the percentage of white Democrats in the Charlotte metropolitan area planning to vote for McCrory. For him to win statewide he’ll need to maintain that level or higher of folks voting for their region over voting for their party.

-54. That’s the percentage of voters planning to support Libertarian Michael Munger who are also planning to vote for Barack Obama. Usually you would expect a Libertarian candidate to pull from the Republicans, but Munger has run to the left of Perdue on issues like immigration and capital punishment and because of that he seems to be pulling most of his support from liberal Democrats. If the Governor’s race ends up being decided by less than a point that could be a difference maker.

-9. That’s how many points ahead of John McCain Pat McCrory is running in suburbia across the state. His message of building more roads and infrastructure in the fastest growing parts of the state seems to be resonating there.

Three numbers for why Bev Perdue could win:

-91. That’s the percentage of people who have already cast a vote for Barack Obama who also voted for Perdue. There had been some concern about whether all the new voters coming out to support Obama would also vote the rest of the ticket, and for the most part it seems they are. That could help put Perdue over the top.

-20. That’s the lead Perdue has in her home region of eastern North Carolina. She needs a strong performance there to offset McCrory’s strength in greater Charlotte, and ads focused on things like mega landfills being dumped in that part of the state have helped her shore up some support in the last few weeks.

-24. That’s the margin by which people who have already voted supported Perdue, 60-36. The big question is whether enough Republicans will turn out on election day itself to make up for the headstart that Perdue- and Obama and Hagan as well- have built up with the most eager voters.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Could there be a move to get McCrory out of Charlotte by the Democrats since they have never been able to defeat him? Word on the street, many Democrats will be voting that way in Charlotte to take back the mayor's office.

Anonymous said...

To anon talk about cutting off your nose despite your face.

Lance S said...

The early vote continues to astonish - over 2 million through yesterday. Assuming a 65% total turnout we could see more than 60% of the vote being cast early. It's tightened a bit, but still about a 53%-30% D-R advantage. U's are still underperforming - about 18% vs. 22% in terms of registration. It will be interesting to see the mix after Saturday. Probably not a 25%-27% Dem advantage anymore, but it still must be significant.

Anonymous said...

R2K just came out with a NC poll showing Perdue ahead (as well as Obama and Hagan).

Anonymous said...

Are the latest polls showing McCrory ahead by four?

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