You wouldn't think there would be many folks who voted for John Kerry in 2004 and John McCain in 2008 given Obama's large national lead right now, but in four key battleground states we recently polled at least 6% of respondents who said they voted for Kerry in 2004 are now going for McCain this year.
In Florida 11% of Kerry supporters are now voting Republican. In Ohio and North Carolina it's 8% and in Virginia it's 6%.
The strongest common theme about these Kerry/McCain voters across the four states if that they're men. In North Carolina 67% are, in Virginia it's 60%, Ohio 57%, and Florida 51%. Perhaps they're national security voters who appreciated both McCain and Kerry's military service.
What they are not is monolithically white. In Virginia 26% of them are black. In North Carolina 16% are. In Florida 20% are Hispanic. So the logical conclusion that they're all racists doesn't bear itself out.
Most of them are Democrats- 61% in Florida and 51% in Ohio for instance. Those two were supposed to be big Puma states but given that the Kerry/McCain voters are overwhelmingly men I don't think that's necessarily what's driving it.
Obviously a lot more Bush voters are going to Obama than the other way around, and Obama has a huge edge with new voters but it's interesting to note that there are those bucking the trends this year. Probably not enough to put McCain over the top though.