Two thoughts occur to me today indicating that Kay Hagan is really winning her race (beyond the fact that eight of our polls in a row have shown that):
-The Dole campaign hasn't floated an internal poll, at least that I'm aware of, since July. Given that 12 public polls in a row have shown Hagan with the lead, you would think that if Dole's numbers were telling her anything different they would be trying to push those on the media. But they haven't, and for the most part they even seem to have stopped bothering attacking every poll that comes out not to their favor.
-Their new Godless Americans ad simply smacks of desperation. It's the 2008 version of Jesse Helms' hands ad. The problem is that North Carolina has changed a heck of a lot since then, and I'm not sure that kind of campaign tactic is still going to be effective here. Hagan is doing well because she's so popular with suburbanites, the folks who have moved here from outside the state. Is this kind of bogeyman really going to work with them? I doubt it, but I guess we'll see.
One thing's for sure: Hagan's banked a 61-35 lead with those who have already voted. Dole is playing major catch up, and even if this ad is somehow effective, it may be too late.