Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Why Elizabeth Dole is (probably) going to lose

When the DSCC started pummeling Elizabeth Dole in August, this election became pretty much solely a referendum on her.

Dole could have survived that. North Carolina voters really liked her the first time she ran in 2002 and I don't think that really changed all that much in the last six years, even if some think she has not been a particularly good advocate for the state.

The problem is that instead of responding by putting Dole on the air, talking straight to the camera and saying that the ads were unfair and talking about what she had accomplished for North Carolina, her campaign just ran a bunch of mediocre negative ads against Kay Hagan, a politician we're probably going to be sending to the US Senate in two weeks who most North Carolinians know very little about.

The Dole response completely missed the boat: the election at this point has little to do with Kay Hagan and everything to do with Elizabeth Dole. The Dole campaign needed to respond to the DSCC attacks by reminding North Carolina voters why they like(d) Elizabeth Dole. But they didn't do that, and at this point it's probably too late. They let the DSCC define Dole in the voters' minds, and her campaign was way too slow to put its best asset- the candidate herself- forward so that she could try to redefine herself.

Dole could still win, but it's looking increasingly unlikely.

14 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hey Tom, What do you think about these results?

629.000 voters have already cast their ballots in NC. 56.4% are DEM ; 27.1% REP and 16.5 IND.

White 67.2%
Black 29.0%
Other 3.8%

These results come from this great website. They update every day.

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

Shaun said...

She's a hack. I'm happy to see her go. And I don't even live in NC.

Anonymous said...

I guess it will depend on how many of the ACORN votes are not counted. How many towns have more people registered than acutally live in the towns?

Josh said...

Acorn isn't that strong in NC like it is in OH. So Acorn really isn't a factor in NC.

Sreenu said...

I always wonder by people are afraid of improper voter registrations.

After all only those who come to vote make a difference. Is there any state where one could cast a ballot without a valid form of identification!

Anonymous said...

Acorn has been strong in the larger cities in NC and on many college campus.

Brandon said...

Here's a tip. If you want to seem credible, quit your open cheerleading. If not, people will consider you for the joke you are.

Anonymous said...

The truth should make people credible, not a joke.

Tyler said...

Oooh poor Anonymous freepers,

The election was stolen in 04 and 00 yet you didn't seem to care.

Sucks to me you sweeties!

tledford said...

There is no such thing as an "ACORN vote" since ACORN is a *voter registration* organization.

Idiot.

Anonymous said...

"Is there any state where one could cast a ballot without a valid form of identification!"

Umm, try all of them except Indiana.

Anonymous said...

For goodnes sakes, is the New York Times reporting on Acorn and some of the not so legal practices in voter registration? Can an organization be a nonprofit, take 31 million from the federal government, endorse a candidate in a public meeting as well in the minutes of their board meetings and not lose its status? Are my tax dollars going to register only one political party?

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