At PPP we always try to be industry leaders for transparency and interaction with our readers, so I'm going to let you decide where we poll this week besides Colorado and North Carolina, from the choices of Missouri, Nevada, and South Carolina.
I see Missouri as very similar to North Carolina, a state with a small Obama advantage right now because of the emerging landslide (don't count your chickens, there's a long time left.)
Nevada I'm guessing Obama has a mid to upper single digit lead now but there still hasn't been much polling there.
South Carolina is a sleeper state. When we polled there in July McCain was only up by six and obviously the campaign is in a much different stage now. If we poll there I'm also going to test Stephen Colbert against Jim Demint in 2010 :)
Anyway the poll is at the top of the page and I'll leave it open for a couple days.
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The Wall Street Journal ranked PPP as one of the top swing state pollsters in the country last year. (11-6-08 WSJ)
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The Wall Street Journal ranked PPP as one of the top swing state pollsters in the country last year. (11-6-08 WSJ)
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Contact Tom Jensen at tomj@publicpolicypolling.com or 919-744-6312 to discuss your project.
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Questions or Comments?
30 comments:
Thanks. This is a brilliant idea. I greatly appreciate your efforts at transparency and interactivity. Keep up the fabulous work.
I would like to see Missouri polled, as it looks to be the tightest race at the moment.
S.C. deserves to be polled, there are a fair number of people that poll NV and MO.
Plus be interesting to see if Lindsey Graham is in trouble.
Indiana is a state that very few pollsters are calling. I predict it's a 1-2 point race there.
All three are more than worthy. I voted for MO to see some confirmation of the Rasmussen from today, but would be interested in both of the other two as well.
Are you doing Florida again next week?
You really should poll missouri and florida again next week
Oh scratch that. please poll Indiana!
My thoughts on which states to poll:
- WV: Sleeper state; all recent polls have shown a single-digit race, and its possible that the recent developments may have pushed the race towards Obama.
- IN: Also has received way too little polling in comparison to its battleground status.
Those aren't options, though, so I'll go with SC, not only for the presidential race, but also because a few polls have amazingly shown Bob Conley not too far behind Lindsey Graham.
MO please.
Either New Hampshire or Nevada in the future would be great!
I agree that Indiana is probably more important--it hasn't been polled in a week.
In light of the recent CNN and Rasmussen polls showing Obama with a slight lead in Missouri, I think you should poll it to get more information on the emerging race there.
My second choices are either West Virginia or Indiana. If Obama is doing well in Appalachia, we might be in for a surprise in WV. As for Indiana, Obama has put in a huge investment there and the state hasn't been polled much.
I'm not sure why you would want to poll South Carolina though.
OK, here are my preferences on which states I'd love for you to poll:
1. Nevada: If you can't poll any other state in the next week, then PLEASE poll Nevada! Until last week we've had a serious dearth of polling in The Silver State. The few new polls out of Nevada now show a small Obama lead, and I'd like to see if it's for real. And because there hasn't been too much polling on the two competitive Congressional races here, I'd love to see Derby v. Heller (NV-02) and Titus v. Porter (NV-03) included in the poll!
2. Colorado: The latest polls from here have been all over the place. I'd very much appreciate a follow-up on your last poll so we can see what's actually happening in The Centennial State.
3. Missouri: Like Nevada, there had been a severe shortage of Show-Me State polling until very recently. I'd like to see if the state of the race really has changed lately.
Thanks for opening this up to suggestions, and I can't wait to see which state is selected for the next poll! :-)
- atdnext
http://clintonistasforobama.blogspot.com
I'm in Colorado. I know we're going to bring CO home for Obama. I'd like to see MO polled.
South Carolina! I sense a surge toward the Democrats all across the South: Obama in VA, NC, and FL; Kay Hagan in NC, Jim Martin in GA, Ronnie Musgrove in MS, Rick Noriega in TX, even Bob Tuke in TN; and good showings in a bunch of House races from VA to TX. My hunch is that the bad economic news is bringing Southern whites home to the Democratic party. A poll in SC would test this hypothesis.
Please poll Georgia. Please please please I beg you! And please weight it so that the AA community will be 30% of the sample to reflect reality. Please!!!!
I voted for NV before I saw the Stephen Colbert comment. If you really include Stephen, then I'm ok with SC.
I think Tom said he can't/won't interview in Indiana because of state laws there. Or am I making that up?
When are you polling VA again? Your last poll was from 9/15, isn't it time to do a round of polling in VA?
Indiana!
Yeah, that´s true. Indiana forbids Robocalls, which is what PPP and Rasmussen do. Rasmussen does the most polls anyway, and PPP also a fair amount, so if those pollsters don´t poll a state, this is what you get (one week without polls).
Cool idea. People-powered democracy at it's best. I think several states need to be polled now that Obama has jumped out in front nationally. Some red states were supposedly out of play after the Palin pick, but I wonder how they stand now:
Mississippi
North Dakota
South Dakota
Montana
Arkansas
Louisiana
Texas
Arizona
West Virginia
South Carolina
Georgia
I'd like to see a Nebraska CD-2 (Omaha) poll done. That would be interesting.
Texas hasn't been polled much lately. Among Obama's longshot states, I'd much rather see Texas than South Carolina.
According to 538, MO has only been polled 4 times in the last three weeks....MO is the ultimate swing state and functions pretty well as a barometer of the rest of the country.
MO will probably tip before IN will, and definitely before SC....if SC tips, Obama is winning 350 or even 400 EVs. NV it seems has already tipped to Obama, at roughly the same time that CO & NM did.
It would also be interesting to understand why Jay Nixon is running several points ahead of Obama; will Nixon pull Obama up? Which demographic groups are splitting their tickets, and why?
Thanks for letting us choose!
I keep going back and forth about Nevada or Missouri, but I just had to see Missouri polled some more now that it's become a dead-heat there.
But COLORADO is the big one! We haven't had any polling other than Rasmussen and some useless Mason-Dixon poll in a month!
Indiana and Virginia would be nice, but they're polled quite a bit.
South Carolina? Who cares? It's McCain +15% or more. Where's the drama in seeing if he's lost 5% off his insurmountable lead?
"Nothing to see here! Keep moving."
Missouri is key. Haven't they picked the winner there in most of the past half century?
I definitely think South Carolina deserves to be polled. No one has polled it since... when?? MO and NV are getting attention as "swing states," but I think some of the supposedly non-swing are also interesting to watch as they shed light on emergent trends.
I also think SC could be a "sleeper," as you say. I don't think it will turn blue, but I think that it will be the next in the South after NC, VA, and GA to do so. The Atlantic Coast is changing and will be a different "bloc" from the Gulf states within 10 years - no more unified "Southern" vote.
That was an overlong answer, but I really do hope that you will do at least one SC poll between now and 11/4. Few other pollsters provide the level of detail that yall do, and if nothing else I would appreciate the comparative an SC poll now will provide for the next election cycle. (Unfortunately, my interest is academic, not professional, so I can't pay for it myself.)
Thanks for asking, too. You rule!
Nice Post. Thanks for sharing this information with us.
@bud: Missouri has picked the winner in almost every Presidential election since 1904. (The one exception was 1956.)
I voted for MO. I'm most curious to see how things pan out in St. Louis County, which is the most populous and the most politically, ethnically, and socioeconomically diverse county in the state. (St. Louis County does not include the city of St. Louis; the city went 80% for Kerry and 77% for Gore, so I doubt Obama will have any trouble there.)
1. West Virginia. This is the State most under-polled, one largely surrounded by by now-Blue states, one culturally in Appalachia but much a part of the Rust Belt, and largely straddling TV markets of Virginia, Ohio, Maryland, and Pennsylvania.
2. Texas. The Favorite Son (George Worthless Bush) isn't so favored there any more. It's by far the largest State in EV's that McCain will likely win. Large Latino (largely Mexican-American) and African-American minorities could conceivably swing Texas. Obama wins Texas only in a huge landslide,
3. Arkansas. Does Bill Clinton have any residual influence in Arkansas? All polling in Arkansas is at least two weeks old now, and much has changed nationwide.
4. Montana. Montana was close much of this year, and Obama was trying to get it to flip blue until he pulled out his crews to shore up his support in other states.
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