Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Kissell takes the lead

Larry Kissell 51
Robin Hayes 46

Larry Kissell has taken the lead for the first time in a PPP poll of North Carolina's 8th Congressional District during this cycle.

The lead Hayes showed in polling over the summer was somewhat artificial. In late August 16% of Democrats were undecided while just 5% of Republicans were, likely due to the fact that Hayes was known and liked by folks within his own party but Kissell was not as well known to his base voters. As he's made his case over the last two months Kissell's lead with Democratic voters has gone from 62-19 to 78-20.

Kissell has also made in roads with independents over the course of the campaign. What was a 43-27 deficit with them is now a tie, 45-45.

The best news for Kissell's chances might come in the numbers from those who have already voted. He leads 60-39 in the votes that have already been cast.

There was some concern about whether black voters turning out to support Barack Obama would also vote for the rest of the ticket. So far 93% of African Americans who have already voted for Barack Obama also voted for Kissell.

A five point lead isn't insurmountable by any means but Kissell is in good shape a week out from election day.

Full results here.

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