This is the Florida section of our report on how shifts in the white vote relative to 2004 can explain most of Barack Obama's surprising success this year in the traditionally red southern states of
The 2004 exit poll for
This year PPP expects that black turnout in the
The Hispanic vote is also a factor in
Polls this year in Florida have been inconsistent as to which candidate is doing a better job of earning Hispanic support, but our most recent survey had Barack Obama with a 50-46 advantage among them, with their share of the electorate pegged at 13%. That gives Obama a pretty inconsequential half point advantage in the total poll. That two point increase for the Democratic nominee among Hispanics relative to the last Presidential election is equivalent to the extra boost that Obama is getting from the black vote in the state this year.
In 2004 white, non-Hispanic, voters made up 70% of the
PPP estimates that the white vote will again account for about 70% of the electorate in
Thus Obama has gained 3 points among white voters, 2 among Hispanics, and 2 among blacks meaning his increased standing in