Sunday, November 2, 2008

Four years ago...

It is a beautiful, unseasonably warm day in central North Carolina.

It very much reminds me of the Sunday before the election four years ago, which was much the same way. I spent the day canvassing unaffiliated voters in Apex, one of Raleigh's fastest growing suburbs. In 2000 Apex's population was about 21,000. Now just eight years later it's about 32,000. When you hear about the changing demography of North Carolina, you're hearing about places like Apex.

I didn't have much luck with those suburban independents. They were definitely voting for Bush, pretty much across the board. I don't know what the exit polls said specifically for suburban independents but they showed Bush winning each of the individual groups in North Carolina by a good deal.

Whoever is canvassing those new subdivisions for the Democrats today is probably having a much more encouraging day than I did. Our latest poll found Barack Obama winning suburban independents in North Carolina by a 61-29 margin. That huge shift right there, even more than turnout from black people, is the kind of thing that will allow Obama to take North Carolina if indeed he does.

Those folks truly are independents. They liked Bush better than Kerry, they like Obama better than McCain. They're voting for the person rather than the party and they're voting Democratic this year because we nominated the right kind of candidate. If we stay away from nominating boring white guys those are the kinds of voters who can ensure we remain competitive in North Carolina for years to come (exciting white guys are fine.)

17 comments:

Anonymous said...

For NC, my thoughts!
Winners:
McCain
Hagan
McCrory
Dalton
Donnan
Meritt
Hayes
Foxx
McHenry
Shuler
Myrick
Watt
Etheridge
Jones
Miller
Butterfield
Troxler
Atkins
Coble
Goodwin
Marshall
Cooper
Price
Nationwide: Obama by three

Josh said...

My estimates for the PPP polls coming out:
NC: O+3
MO: Tie
PA: O+8
IN: M+1
MT: M+1
OH: O+6
FL: O+2
GA: M+4
NV: O+5
VA: O+9

Matt said...

I'll guess...

NC: O +2
MO: M +1
PA: O +7
IN: Tie
MT: M +4
OH: O +4
FL: O +2
GA: M +3
NV: O +5
VA: O +7

Anonymous said...

"is the kind of thing that will allow Obama to take North Carolina if indeed he does."

That doesn't sound too confident. Is Civitas also going to weigh in with their final NC poll?

detttw said...

Anon - No pollster is going to guarantee a win in a race when there poll is within the MoE or just outside.

To do so would hurt their credibility badly. See Zogby, John.

jr1886 said...

Here's my two cents

Obama +4

Kay hagan +9
McCrory +2

Anonymous said...

Obama will win NC.

72% from total vote in 2004 have already voted and 26.5% are AA.

NC will be blue and maxon-dindon-dixon( with mccain +3) will be ridiculous.

Anonymous said...

Did you ever conduct a Kentucky poll? Last SurveyUSA poll shows McCain with a commanding advantage of 56-40, which leaves Obama in the same position as John Kerry in Kentucky and according to your poll, in the same position as the Massachusetts Senator in West Virginia.

I ask about Kentucky and West Virginia b/c of how it bodes for Southern Ohio and how large a margin Mac will get in that region. He needs to get the same margin as Bush did to keep Ohio red given Obama's gains elsewhere in the state and these two polls suggest that Mac is performing at Bush-levels in Southern Ohio if you follow the Nate Silver theory that Kentucky and West Virginia will tell us something about Southern Ohio. Though Mason-Dixon oddly shows Mac with the lead in Ohio but peforming quite poorly in Kentucky (leading Obama only 50-41).

Anonymous said...

My thoughts:

National O 52 M 46 (remainder third party)
Obama wins - Va, PA, OH, FLA, NC, MO, CO, NV, and NM (McCain keeps Indiana, Montana, Georgia, and the Dakotas) for 364 electoral votes

Anonymous said...

Either you or Mason-Dixon will have egg on your face with North Carolina if you show a +3 Obama lead; we'll see who is right on Tuesday evening.

Tom Jensen said...

If we show an Obama +3 lead and he ends up losing EVERYONE except Mason Dixon will have an egg on their face since Obama leads in almost all NC polling, by as much as 7 points in the Elon Poll and 6 points in CNN.

KMartDad said...

"Exciting White Guys": oxymoron.

As said by a very-boring, very- white, very-guy type.

Tom Jensen said...

Schweitzer!

tyler said...

Tom,

Don't let all these loser Republican Hannity trolls get you down. you don't even need to respond to these assholes.

2 more days till we have a black ultra-liberal President pubbies so you best get ready, sweeties! Time for you losers to move to Iceland.

thisniss said...

I'd cast my lot with PPP over Mason-Dixon, based on primary polling and my own eyes.

Plus, I've read the Early Voting statistics very carefully. I did the same in the primary. They look remarkably similar, and Obama's GOTV operation for the General is even tighter. McCain's isn't better than Clinton's, however. I just don't see him pulling this one out, barring an earthquake or something.

cswiii said...

Apex is looking pretty good for Obama this year ;).

I have seen a a lot more McCain stuff pop up in the past month or so, but that's to be expected. Generally speaking, it's all sorts of Blue out here.

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