It is a beautiful, unseasonably warm day in central North Carolina.
It very much reminds me of the Sunday before the election four years ago, which was much the same way. I spent the day canvassing unaffiliated voters in Apex, one of Raleigh's fastest growing suburbs. In 2000 Apex's population was about 21,000. Now just eight years later it's about 32,000. When you hear about the changing demography of North Carolina, you're hearing about places like Apex.
I didn't have much luck with those suburban independents. They were definitely voting for Bush, pretty much across the board. I don't know what the exit polls said specifically for suburban independents but they showed Bush winning each of the individual groups in North Carolina by a good deal.
Whoever is canvassing those new subdivisions for the Democrats today is probably having a much more encouraging day than I did. Our latest poll found Barack Obama winning suburban independents in North Carolina by a 61-29 margin. That huge shift right there, even more than turnout from black people, is the kind of thing that will allow Obama to take North Carolina if indeed he does.
Those folks truly are independents. They liked Bush better than Kerry, they like Obama better than McCain. They're voting for the person rather than the party and they're voting Democratic this year because we nominated the right kind of candidate. If we stay away from nominating boring white guys those are the kinds of voters who can ensure we remain competitive in North Carolina for years to come (exciting white guys are fine.)