Montana

On the first round of calls for our Montana poll something happened I've never seen before: the candidates were literally dead even on the raw counts.

In most states that would mean the Democrat is well ahead, because we usually have to weight our samples to bring up the black population. But I don't think that's an issue in Montana!

So basically that means the leader, at least based on this first round of calls, would hinge on what's bigger: the gender gap between the candidates or the age gap. We almost always have to weight our polls to make them more male: women are just more likely to answer the phone. That weighting benefits Republicans. But we usually also have to adjust our samples to make them younger, bringing up the 30 and under crowd and decreasing the share of senior citizens. That helps Democrats.

We'll be making callbacks throughout the weekend but the bottom line is that the state is really close.

By the Numbers: Governor's Race

Three numbers for why Pat McCrory could win:

-35. That’s the percentage of white Democrats in the Charlotte metropolitan area planning to vote for McCrory. For him to win statewide he’ll need to maintain that level or higher of folks voting for their region over voting for their party.

-54. That’s the percentage of voters planning to support Libertarian Michael Munger who are also planning to vote for Barack Obama. Usually you would expect a Libertarian candidate to pull from the Republicans, but Munger has run to the left of Perdue on issues like immigration and capital punishment and because of that he seems to be pulling most of his support from liberal Democrats. If the Governor’s race ends up being decided by less than a point that could be a difference maker.

-9. That’s how many points ahead of John McCain Pat McCrory is running in suburbia across the state. His message of building more roads and infrastructure in the fastest growing parts of the state seems to be resonating there.

Three numbers for why Bev Perdue could win:

-91. That’s the percentage of people who have already cast a vote for Barack Obama who also voted for Perdue. There had been some concern about whether all the new voters coming out to support Obama would also vote the rest of the ticket, and for the most part it seems they are. That could help put Perdue over the top.

-20. That’s the lead Perdue has in her home region of eastern North Carolina. She needs a strong performance there to offset McCrory’s strength in greater Charlotte, and ads focused on things like mega landfills being dumped in that part of the state have helped her shore up some support in the last few weeks.

-24. That’s the margin by which people who have already voted supported Perdue, 60-36. The big question is whether enough Republicans will turn out on election day itself to make up for the headstart that Perdue- and Obama and Hagan as well- have built up with the most eager voters.

Big Picture on Last Night's Polls

We were so busy crunching the numbers last night that there wasn't a lot of time to look at the big picture. Here's what I thought was important in those polls:

-Barack Obama is doing better with Republicans than John McCain is doing with Democrats in every state we released last night except West Virginia:

State	Obama Republican %	McCain Democratic %
Colorado	13	10
Michigan	13	8
Minnesota	12	6
New Mexico	17	16
Oregon	11	9

So much for the Democrats' party unity problem. Who would have expected that one three or four months ago? The party is clearly behind its nominee, and McCain's degree of party unity actually even seems to be declining a little bit relative to the summer.

-Utter domination with independents. I'll just let the numbers speak for themseves:

State	Independents
Colorado	Obama 60-36
Michigan	Obama 53-40
Minnesota	Obama 55-37
New Mexico	Obama 66-28
Oregon	Obama 53-41

When you're putting up those kinds of numbers with voters in the middle you're going to win.

-Banking a lead. Early voting is obviously more important in places like Colorado and New Mexico where a significant chunk of votes are cast through that medium but even in states like Michigan where those who have already voted probably just did it through an absentee ballot, Obama is doing much better among votes that are already in the can than McCain is:

State	Already Voted
Colorado	Obama 58-41
Michigan	Obama 60-40
Minnesota	Obama 59-39
New Mexico	Obama 64-36
Oregon	Obama 64-35

We have a pretty tight likely voter screen and I do think that John McCain is going to do a lot better with the votes still to come, but it's always better to have acutal votes than speculative votes.

One last point: I've been pretty skeptical of the Arizona polling all week but Obama's remarkable performance in New Mexico makes me think there might be something to it. If Barack actually goes there before the conclusion of the campaign we *may* try to sneak in one extra poll.

Michigan Results

Barack Obama 55
John McCain 42

Barack Obama is set to win a double digit victory in Michigan.

He's taken a 49-48 lead with white voters, representing a significant improvement in the state for him. Just two months ago McCain was up 54-38 with whites. Add in Obama's 90+ percent rate of support from black voters and it's the equation for a lopsided win.

Obama is up 53-40 with independents, and he's also winning more Republican votes (13%) than McCain is Democratic votes (8%). Concerns about Democratic unity in the wake of the fiasco regarding the state's delegation to the national convention seem to have fallen by the wayside in the light of increased voter concern over the economy.

Obama has a remarkable 73-20 lead with poll respondents who didn't vote in the 2004 election, but he's also putting up a good standing with some of the most reliable voters out there, senior citizens. He has a 52-44 advantage with that demographic.

In the state's US Senate race Carl Levin is cruising to reelection. He leads challenger Jack Hoogendyk 58-36, with the 22 point lead matching the largest he's shown in a PPP poll this year.

Full results here.

New Mexico Results

Barack Obama 58
John McCain 41

New Mexico is a candidate to be the state with the largest turnaround in its voting pattern relative to 2004. Barack Obama is blowing out John McCain in this place that went red just four years ago.

Obama is doing very well with two key groups of the state's voters. Among independents he has a 66-28 lead, and with Hispanics he's up 62-37.

This may begin to sound like a broken record, but he's also banked a huge lead with those who have already filled out their ballots. 56% of poll respondents reported having done that, and within that group Obama is leading 64-36. He is up by a much more modest 50-47 tally with those who have yet to vote.

We interviewed 1,537 people in New Mexico. 866 of them said they already voted, and 550 of those people said they voted for Obama. That means that if this was an accurate sampling of the population, Obama would need to win the votes of only 219 of the remaining 671 people polled who had not actually filled out their ballot. It seems a good bet that 33% is something they can handle.

Tom Udall is up 58-39 in his Senate bid.

Full results here.

Merkley running away

Jeff Merkley 51
Gordon Smith 43
Dave Brownlow 4

Jeff Merkley is continuing to expand his lead in his quest to defeat Gordon Smith for reelection to the US Senate. He has a 59-37 advantage with those who have already voted and he's winning 45-39 with independents. This race has been universally headed in Merkley's direction for weeks now and it's probably too late for Smith to turn it around.

In Oregon's races for Secretary of State and Treasurer the Democrats lead. Kate Brown is up 51-40 for the former office, and Ben Westlund is up 47-41 for the latter.

Full results here.

Oregon Results

Barack Obama 57
John McCain 42

With the election still four days away, Barack Obama has already received close to the number of votes he needs to win Oregon.

59% of poll respondents said they had already filled out their ballots, and within that group Obama has a 64-35 lead. John McCain is winning 52-45 with those who have not yet voted.

Look at it this way: we polled 1,424 people in Oregon. 839 of them had already voted, and 539 of those people voted for Obama. That basically means that out of the 585 people in our sample who had yet to fill out their ballot Obama would need 174, or a little under 30% to get to 50% +1. It's safe to say he'll win Oregon in a blowout.

Oregon is a rare state where Obama even has a 51-45 lead with voters over 65. He's winning more Republicans (11%) than McCain is Democrats (9%) and has a 53-41 advantage with independents.

Full results here

Mark Udall: Moving On Up

Mark Udall 56
Bob Schaffer 41

Mark Udall continues to expand his lead in his quest to move up from the House to the Senate. He's banked a 60-38 lead with those who have already voted, is winning 60-31 with independents, and is winning every racial and age demographics.

Not much else to say on this one. It's over.

Full results here.

Colorado Results

Barack Obama 54
John McCain 44

Barack Obama's already just about won the race for President in Colorado.

65% of the folks we surveyed said they had already voted, and among those respondents Obama is winning 58-41. Folks planning to vote on election day support John McCain 50-47, bringing Obama's overall lead down to ten points.

Let's look at this another way. We interviewed 2,023 people. 1306 had already voted, and 761 of them voted for Obama. That means out of the remaining folks Obama would only need 251 out of their 717 votes, or 35%. Since 47% say they intend to vote for Obama it seems like a safe bet that he'll get there.

Obama continues to dominate with independent voters in the state, leading 60-36. Colorado is yet another state where he is winning modestly more Republicans (13%) than John McCain is Democrats (10%). So much for the Democrats' party unity problem this year.

Full results here.

Minnesota Senate: Franken leads

Al Franken 45
Norm Coleman 40
Dean Barkley 14

The race for US Senate in Minnesota is close, but Al Franken has a definite lead at this juncture in the contest.

Franken and Coleman are doing a roughly equally good job of holding onto each of their party's voters. Coleman gets 85% of Republicans and Franken is earning 81% support from Democrats. That's important because it's an indicator that Barkley is pulling roughly equally from each party, a different conclusion than some other recent polling has found. 55% of Barkley's support is coming from independent voters, and he's running pretty close to the major party candidates with that demographic- Coleman is at 35%, Franken 34%, and Barkley is getting 26%.

Only 76% of Obama voters are planning to vote for Franken, quite a difference from the 85% of McCain supporters going for Coleman. But with Obama headed for a dominant victory in the state, it looks like as of today his coattails would be enough to bring Franken across the finish line. What impact the lawsuit Coleman filed against Franken today and whatever else happens in the last five days of the election has remains to be seen.

Full results here.

Minnesota Results

Barack Obama 57
John McCain 41

Barack Obama is headed for a remarkably dominant victory in Minnesota.

Here are some of the key numbers:

-17. That's the percentage of people who voted for George W. Bush in 2004 who now plan to vote for Obama in the state.

-42. That's the lead Obama has with new voters, 65-23.

-18. That's the advantage Obama has with independents, 55-37.

Also worth noting: Obama wins 12% of Republicans while McCain wins only 6% of Democrats. This is one state where party unity is most certainly not an issue for the Democrats.

Full results here.

West Virginia: Down Ballot Stuff

West Virginians may not be voting for change when it comes to President, but it does look like they're ready to select a new Attorney General. Republican challenger Dan Greear leads Democratic incumbent Darrell McGraw 50-42 for that office.

There is better news for Democrats in other offices. Governor Joe Manchin is coasting to reelection, currently holding a 69-27 lead. He even leads 51-46 among Republican voters, something I'm pretty sure we haven't seen in any other polling we've conducted this year. His advantage with independents is 70-24.

Jay Rockefeller is going to be headed back to the US Senate as well, leading his Republican challenger 58-40.

Democrat Natalie Tennant is up 58-31 in her quest to become Secretary of State, and Gus Douglass is up 50-41 as he looks to make it an 11th term as Agriculture Commissioner.

Full results here.

West Virginia Results

John McCain 55
Barack Obama 42

John McCain appears headed for an easy victory in West Virginia. Since PPP polled the state two weeks ago his standing has improved by five points while Obama has remained in place. It appears this is one state where undecideds are moving overwhelmingly toward McCain.

Obama was never going to have a very good chance of winning the state if he couldn't improve his standing with Democratic voters, and in this survey he leads only 65-31 with them. McCain is receiving 90% support from his party, and also leading 53-39 with independent voters.

Obama is doing comparatively well with young voters, among whom he has a one point lead. But he is doing particularly poorly with the middle aged segment of the electorate. He is down 59-37 with voters between the ages of 30 and 45, a performance that does not bode particularly well for future Democratic Presidential prospects in the state.

Full results here.

Clarification

There is not going to be a dump of all the polls at once at 10:30 tonight or on Sunday night. We'll be posting them one at a time as we finalize them throughout the night each of those evenings. For instance, our Oregon poll won't even be out of the field until midnight tonight so final results aren't likely until a while after that.

The first one up will be West Virginia. It doesn't look like good news but don't get flipped out about the rest of them just because of that one.

Late Night with PPP

Tonight we will be finishing field work on our final polls in Colorado, New Mexico, Michigan, Minnesota, West Virginia, and Oregon. The PPP team will be working through the night and posting each of these polls as soon as it is weighted and analyzed. So if you're an insomniac and so worked up about the election that you can't sleep at night we will help feed your addiction.

Polls will start going up roughly around 10:30 or 11 PM.

Five Numbers: Why Kay Hagan could beat Elizabeth Dole

When we look back on it the 2008 Senate election may be remembered as a contest of numbers. 92 and 93, as seared into the consciousness of North Carolina voters through a DSCC advertising campaign, have been vital in efforts to tie Elizabeth Dole to George W. Bush and the nation's economic woes, as well as to make Dole out as an ineffective Senator. That's propelled Kay Hagan into the lead in our last eight polls.

Here are five other numbers that speak to Hagan's surprisingly strong standing a few days out from the election:

-18. That's the percentage of people who voted for Elizabeth Dole in the 2002 Senate race but are now backing Kay Hagan. That's a lot of lost support for the incumbent since she was first elected.

-7. That's Hagan's lead among female voters. Dole got a lot of crossover Democratic support and did very well with woman independents when she ran originally. By nominating another woman the Democrats effectively neutralized any advantage Dole received there in 2002.

-8. That's the share of the black vote Dole is currently receiving. In 2002 her celebrity and moderate veneer helped her to do much better with African American voters than most Republicans do. Fully 25% of blacks in our last poll who voted in 2002 said they voted for Dole but she's lost almost all of that support this time.

-17. That's the proportion of North Carolinians planning to vote this fall who say they did not cast a ballot in the 2002 Senate race. Between in migration and the awakening of the apathetic, there are going to be a lot of folks coming out to vote this year who were not part of the North Carolina electorate when Elizabeth Dole was first elected. Those folks are overwhelmingly supportive of Hagan, by a 58-28 margin.

-50. That's the percentage of independent voters Hagan is receiving, 18% more than Dole. The Republican incumbent won with that demographic in 2002 but independent voters are going for the Democrats in the federal offices by a wide margin this time around.

Undecideds in North Carolina

I was asked recently who the undecideds were for the major offices in North Carolina. Most of the trends remain the same as they had been in recent weeks but here's our final analysis on that issue:

Your average undecided for President at this point is a rural Democrat, probably in eastern North Carolina, who voted for Bush in 2004 but is thinking about voting for Obama because of the economy. It’s your typical ticket splitter- Republican for President and Democratic for Governor- identifying yourself as a Democrat but uncomfortable with the stance of ‘national’ Democrats on key social issues like abortion, gay marriage, etc. The conundrum for this voter: put the economy first and vote for Obama or puts values issues first and vote for McCain. The race has tightened up in the state over the last few weeks as more of those people have returned to their normal voting habits and decided to back McCain.

In both the Senate race and the race for Governor the undecideds are overwhelmingly Barack Obama supporters who don’t know what, if anything, they’re going to do on the rest of the ballot. A third of them didn’t vote for President in 2004. A plurality are independents, a lot of them are black, and a lot of them are young. They’re the kind of folks who are uniquely attracted to Obama’s candidacy and probably wouldn’t even be turning out this fall if Hillary had ended up with the nomination. There’s good news and bad news for Hagan and Perdue on this front. The bad news is that they’re voting for Obama because they like Obama- not because he’s a Democrat. So they aren’t necessarily going to be straight party voters. The good news is that among people we surveyed who already voted, more than 90% of them said they voted for Perdue and Hagan too. That’s actually a little higher than the rate of people who voted for McCain that said they would also choose McCrory and Dole.

Ticket splitters back to normal

Earlier in the fall we picked up on a somewhat surprising trend: more North Carolinians were planning to vote Democratic for President and Republican for Governor than the other way around, bucking the state's overwhelming historic trend.

Now those numbers seem to be going back to normal. Three weeks ago 54% of people planning to vote Democratic for one office and Republican for the other when it came to President and Governor were planning to vote for Barack Obama and Pat McCrory. Now 66% are going with the more traditional combination of John McCain and Bev Perdue.

This return to form is largely a function of both Barack Obama and Pat McCrory struggling to overcome obstacles to their candidacies in eastern North Carolina. 56% of the McCain/Perdue voters come from the east.

Although there has been a lot of bluster about voters going for Obama and McCrory because they want change across the board, the reality is that fewer than 3% of North Carolina voters are planning to choose that particular ticket.

The Black Vote in 2008: it's not all about quantity either

Last week we analyzed young voters in the swing states and found that even if there wasn't a big increase in turnout from the under 30 crowd this year, there would still be a big shift toward the Democrats because of changing preferences within that demographic.

I am much more confident that there will be a large increase in black turnout than I am that there will be a large increase in youth turnout, but the same truism applies to black voters: there will be a major movement toward the Democrats with them whether there's a large increase in turnout or not.

Take North Carolina as the biggest example. The 2004 exit poll showed John Kerry winning black voters in the state 85-15. A private poll we conducted statewide over the last few days showed Barack Obama winning them 95-5. That may not sound like a huge difference, but look at it this way. Kerry won them by 70. Obama's winning them by 90. Let's conservatively put black turnout at 20%. A 20% improvement with 20% of the population is worth an extra four points for Obama statewide. That's a huge deal.

It's a similar story in a couple other states that look like they'll be incredibly close. In our most recent Florida poll blacks who said they voted in 2004 went 87-13 for Kerry. Now they're 91-8 for Obama. That nine point increase with 13% of the likely voting population is worth a little more than a point statewide. Could make the difference in an incredibly tight race.

The same holds true in Indiana. Kerry won 83-17 with the African Americans we surveyed who voted last time. Obama leads 89-11. A 12 point shift with roughly 10% of the population is worth a little more than a point as well. Could swing it.

Blacks have certainly always been supportive of the Democratic Party, but not to the extent that they are this year. That's why analysis suggesting that Obama won't get that big a boost from black voters because Democrats always get a big boost from black voters is off the mark. Even small shifts could make a big difference in some of the closest states.

More WRAL Polling Problems

WRAL commissioned a poll in the US Senate race and got one of the candidates' names wrong. Christopher Cox may be the chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission but he is not the Libertarian nominee for US Senate. That would be Christopher Cole.

Probably doesn't have any real impact on the numbers but it makes you wonder how much care really went into the poll.

Kay Hagan's winning

Two thoughts occur to me today indicating that Kay Hagan is really winning her race (beyond the fact that eight of our polls in a row have shown that):

-The Dole campaign hasn't floated an internal poll, at least that I'm aware of, since July. Given that 12 public polls in a row have shown Hagan with the lead, you would think that if Dole's numbers were telling her anything different they would be trying to push those on the media. But they haven't, and for the most part they even seem to have stopped bothering attacking every poll that comes out not to their favor.

-Their new Godless Americans ad simply smacks of desperation. It's the 2008 version of Jesse Helms' hands ad. The problem is that North Carolina has changed a heck of a lot since then, and I'm not sure that kind of campaign tactic is still going to be effective here. Hagan is doing well because she's so popular with suburbanites, the folks who have moved here from outside the state. Is this kind of bogeyman really going to work with them? I doubt it, but I guess we'll see.

One thing's for sure: Hagan's banked a 61-35 lead with those who have already voted. Dole is playing major catch up, and even if this ad is somehow effective, it may be too late.

Five Numbers showing why Obama can win North Carolina

-41. That's his lead among people who didn't vote in 2004 (65-24) They're providing his current small lead in the state, as McCain is up 49-48 with those who did vote in the last election.

-17. That's the numbers of points independents have shifted from 2004. Obama leads 51-39 with them after Bush won them by a modest amount last time.

-13. That's the difference PPP found in an August report between how natives and non-natives of North Carolina are planning to vote for President. The newbies are for Obama, and they're comprising a larger and larger portion of the electorate.

-59. That's the percentage of North Carolinians naming the economy as their top issue. The higher that number's gotten, the better Obama has matched up with McCain as fewer voters are making their choices on things like values issues and immigration that tend to benefit Republicans.

-10. That's the percentage of people who voted for George W. Bush in 2004 now supporting Obama. It may not sound like a lot, but if not for those folks the new voters Obama's bringing out wouldn't be nearly enough. Not surprisingly 79% of these voters cite the economy as their top issue.

Wake County fueling possible blue transformation

If North Carolina is going to turn blue this year, major shifts in the Wake County political landscape since 2004 will be a primary driver in making it happen.

Four years ago George W. Bush won the county by two points. Now Barack Obama has a commanding 57-40 lead there. There's no doubt that in migration and new voters are a huge factor in this movement. Among people voting for President in Wake County for the first time he has a 72-26 lead. He's up by a remarkable 61-28 margin with independents in the county, and has banked a 70-29 lead with folks who have already voted.

We predict that there could be a shift of up to 80-90,000 votes in Wake County relative to 2004, which would make up about 20% of John Kerry's statewide gap relative to George W. Bush right there.

This could have major implications up and down the ballot. Barack Obama might just bring folks like Al Swanstrom, running against Nelson Dollar, and Chris Mintz, running against Neal Hunt with him.

Wake County is also providing a huge boost to Kay Hagan's prospects for election to the US Senate. She leads 55-41 in the county and has a 29 point edge with independents.

Bev Perdue leads 51-43.

Full results here.

Democrats primed for Wake Couny takeover

Currently Republicans hold a 4-3 advantage on the Wake County Board of Commissioners, but if nothing changes between now and election day incumbent Republican Kenn Gardner will lose his seat to Democratic challenger Stan Norwalk and flip the balance of control on the board.

Norwalk leads 49-40 in PPP's newest poll, a result pretty similar to a survey last month that showed him up 46-36. Norwalk is up 63-30 with those who have already voted and has a 47-31 advantage with independents. He has been attacked repeatedly by groups associated with the development industry in recent days, but there may be too much political clutter for that to break thorough. Also, PPP surveys of Wake County residents over the last seven years have repeatedly shown that county residents agree with the sorts of initiatives that Norwalk supports to make growth pay for itself, the very stances that he is being attacked for.

In the other two Wake County commissioner races incumbent Democrats are coasting to victory. Harold Webb leads Venita Peyton 52-37, and Betty Lou Ward is up 53-38 on Larry Tilley.

Full results here.

Perdue in Charlotte

I'm afraid my post about our newest Governor poll yesterday may have left the false impression that I think Bev Perdue is writing off Charlotte. Far from it, she has actually made incredible strides in the region over the last year, without which her chances of being elected Governor would be significantly reduced.

The first three times we polled a potential McCrory-Perdue general election match up, back in the winter, McCrory held a lead of at least 35 points in each poll in greater Charlotte. In fact the very first poll, conducted in December before McCrory even officially entered the race, showed him up 61-20 in his home region.

After Perdue became better known to Charlotte area voters during her primary contest with Richard Moore her numbers relative to McCrory improved in two of our first three general election polls. Perdue cut his lead in the area down to 23 points in our first post-primary poll and 24 points in a survey conducted at the end of June.

With the coming of fall, and as Perdue has devoted more time and money to the region with lots of visits and television ads, her gap relative to McCrory has been cut even more. In our last seven surveys McCrory's lead in greater Charlotte has fluctuated between 8 and 18 points, representing roughly a 20-30 point improvement for Perdue relative to last winter.

Her improvement has come thanks to shoring up her support with black voters in the region, and peeling off a lot of the Democrats who were originally intending to vote region over party and cast a vote for McCrory. Although there are still a fair number of voters doing that it's not nearly as many as it was six months ago.

Perdue will not win the Charlotte metro area, but she has been effective in campaigning there enough to significantly reduce her deficit such that as the race stands her performance elsewhere in the state will put her over the top. If she hadn't been so successful in winning over more Charlotte voters her margins elsewhere would not be enough.

Kerry/McCain Voters

You wouldn't think there would be many folks who voted for John Kerry in 2004 and John McCain in 2008 given Obama's large national lead right now, but in four key battleground states we recently polled at least 6% of respondents who said they voted for Kerry in 2004 are now going for McCain this year.

In Florida 11% of Kerry supporters are now voting Republican. In Ohio and North Carolina it's 8% and in Virginia it's 6%.

The strongest common theme about these Kerry/McCain voters across the four states if that they're men. In North Carolina 67% are, in Virginia it's 60%, Ohio 57%, and Florida 51%. Perhaps they're national security voters who appreciated both McCain and Kerry's military service.

What they are not is monolithically white. In Virginia 26% of them are black. In North Carolina 16% are. In Florida 20% are Hispanic. So the logical conclusion that they're all racists doesn't bear itself out.

Most of them are Democrats- 61% in Florida and 51% in Ohio for instance. Those two were supposed to be big Puma states but given that the Kerry/McCain voters are overwhelmingly men I don't think that's necessarily what's driving it.

Obviously a lot more Bush voters are going to Obama than the other way around, and Obama has a huge edge with new voters but it's interesting to note that there are those bucking the trends this year. Probably not enough to put McCain over the top though.

NC 8: Top of the Ticket

Barack Obama 51
John McCain 45

John Kerry lost this district by 8 points in 2004, so Obama's lead represents a 14 point gain relative to that, pretty similar to what he will need statewide if he's going to win here. The candidates were tied when PPP last surveyed the district in August. Obama is up 45-40 with independents.

Bev Perdue 47
Pat McCrory 46
Michael Munger 3

This represents a four point gain for Perdue since trailing McCrory by three in the district two months ago. You can argue either way whether this is a good result for her. Mike Easley won the district 53-45 in 2000, so she's running well behind him. At the same time, there is a lot of Charlotte media market in this district so in that sense she's hanging strong.

Kay Hagan 51
Elizabeth Dole 42
Christopher Cole 4

There's not much arguing whether this is a good performance for Hagan or not. Dole won the district 51-48 in 2002 so this signifies a 12 point reversal. Hagan's winning independents 42-36 and doing a better job with white voters than any of the other Democratic candidates in the district. These numbers bode well for her statewide prospects.

Full results here.

Kissell takes the lead

Larry Kissell 51
Robin Hayes 46

Larry Kissell has taken the lead for the first time in a PPP poll of North Carolina's 8th Congressional District during this cycle.

The lead Hayes showed in polling over the summer was somewhat artificial. In late August 16% of Democrats were undecided while just 5% of Republicans were, likely due to the fact that Hayes was known and liked by folks within his own party but Kissell was not as well known to his base voters. As he's made his case over the last two months Kissell's lead with Democratic voters has gone from 62-19 to 78-20.

Kissell has also made in roads with independents over the course of the campaign. What was a 43-27 deficit with them is now a tie, 45-45.

The best news for Kissell's chances might come in the numbers from those who have already voted. He leads 60-39 in the votes that have already been cast.

There was some concern about whether black voters turning out to support Barack Obama would also vote for the rest of the ticket. So far 93% of African Americans who have already voted for Barack Obama also voted for Kissell.

A five point lead isn't insurmountable by any means but Kissell is in good shape a week out from election day.

Full results here.

Other Council of State Races

Auditor:

Beth Wood (D) 44
Leslie Merritt (R) 41

Wood has led every single poll in this race, but this is the closest the margin has been as the better funded Merritt is able to run a more visible campaign.

Secretary of State:

Elaine Marshall (D) 48
Jack Sawyer (R) 39

Marshall has led by a good amount in every poll of this race.

Agriculture Commissioner:

Steve Troxler (R) 46
Ronnie Ansley (D) 41

Troxler is holding on in this Democratic year thanks in no small part to his carrying 20% of the Democratic vote.

A note on the Council of State Races:

We realized if we polled every one of them on our final North Carolina poll next weekend it would be way too long. So we decided not to poll any race where there hasn't been a poll showing it within five points at least in the last couple months. Congratulations to June Atkinson, Roy Cooper, and Elaine Marshall on their inevitable reelections.

Full results here.

Race for Governor: All about Region

Bev Perdue 47
Pat McCrory 44
Michael Munger 5

Bev Perdue's campaign has made a clear calculus that they're willing to tick off Charlotte voters if it allows them to rack up the kind of margins they need to win in eastern North Carolina. Right now it seems to be working.

One of the biggest things that has kept Perdue from running away with this race is that Pat McCrory has consistently shown a huge lead in the polls in greater Charlotte, including major in roads with white Democrats, that Perdue has not been able to match in her home base of eastern North Carolina. Perdue has worked hard to shore up her support in Charlotte, but McCrory has consistently led the polls there by double digits.

So about two weeks ago it seems Perdue's campaign became heavily focused on the east. First she started running effective ads on Yankee trash, an issue that hits home much harder east of I-95 than it does anywhere else. Her newest set of ads attack McCrory for a Charlotte first mentality: if there was no inherent anti-Charlotte bias with voters outside the state of Mecklenburg, it seems, the Perdue campaign is trying to create one.

How's it all working? In the two polls before this new strategy Perdue led by an average of 48-42 in eastern North Carolina. In the two polls since her average lead is up to 54-38, including a new high of 56-36 in this week's poll. We project eastern North Carolinians to cast around 28-30% of the vote for Governor, so a ten point increase in her lead in that region gives her an extra three points statewide. That's huge in a tight race.

Of course folks in Charlotte aren't necessarily thrilled with Perdue's strategy. In the two polls before she started actively courting the east she trailed by an average of 52-41 there. In the last two she trails by an average of 53-39, with her 53-36 deficit this week the largest she's shown in Charlotte in a long time. So she's lost 3-4 points in a region of the state that will cast about 20% of the vote. That costs her a point statewide.

Forsaking a point in Charlotte to pick up three in the east? Could make the difference in a close race.

Full results here.

Early Voters in North Carolina

Although the early voting numbers in North Carolina so far have been very exciting for Democrats so far I am sorry to report that it appears they'll revert to normal.

So far 28% of early voters have been black. We weighted our poll to 21% black turnout, and that made the percentage of black early voters in our poll 31%, pretty similar to what it has actually been. That leads me to continue to believe African Americans will account for 20-22% of the electorate, as I have thought all along.

Looking at it another way, 49% of blacks in our survey said they had already voted. Only 29% of white voters said the same. If the whites planning to vote actually do follow through and do it the racial demographics of the North Carolina electorate will end up being almost identical to the state's population. Keep in mind this is still a big improvement from 2004 when blacks accounted for just 18.5% of general election voters.

The party figures for early voters in our poll also closely match what they have actually been so far. The true figures have been 55% Democrats, 28% Republicans, and 17% independents. On our poll it came out 57-25-18. The party breakdown of those who have not voted yet but plan to for our survey is 44% Democrats, 40% Republicans, and 17% independents. So the party imbalance should revert to the 13-14% registration edge Democrats in the state hold as well.

Nonetheless the numbers on who has already voted are good news for Democrats on several fronts:

-Not only is Obama winning 63-36 overall in votes already in the bank, but he's up 60-34 with independents who have turned out already. There's been a huge spike in independent voters this year, and they certainly seem to be leaning toward Obama.

-There is also very good news for Kay Hagan and Bev Perdue. There's been a lot of concern about whether Obama's supporters would just cast a vote for him and go home, or fill out the entire ballot. Among those who have already voted for Obama 92% said they also voted for Hagan and 91% said they also voted for Perdue. By a small degree that's a higher margin of party unity than the Republicans are showing- 89% of those who say they already voted for John McCain also say they voted for Elizabeth Dole and Pat McCrory.

Bottom line on the early voters: it's a lot better to go into election day with a huge lead than not!

Hagan leads for eighth poll in a row

Kay Hagan 48
Elizabeth Dole 45
Christopher Cole 4

For the eighth PPP poll in a row Kay Hagan leads Elizabeth Dole. Christopher Cole continues to poll relatively well, an indication that voters disgusted with the tone of the campaign may really end up casting their ballots for him.

As a benchmark for this poll we asked respondents whether they voted in the 2002 Senate race when Elizabeth Dole first ran, and if so who they voted for. 18% of respondents who voted for Dole last time are now casting their ballots for Kay Hagan.

She has lost much of her bipartisan support from six years ago. For instance, 28% of Democrats we surveyed who voted in 2002 chose Dole. Now she has the support of just 18%. A quarter of blacks who voted in 2004 said they case their ballots for Dole. Now just 8% plan to. 54% of independents in the poll chose Dole last time. Now Kay Hagan leads 50-32 with that group of voters.

Those numbers give you a good sense of how Dole's broad appeal has declined. Another number gives a good indicator to how the state's electorate has change since 2002. Hagan is up 58-28 with those voters who did not cast a ballot in 2002.

This race is looking tighter than it did last week but I'm sure Elizabeth Dole would happily trades places with Kay Hagan in the polls if she had the choice.

Full results here.

NC Race Tightens

Barack Obama 49
John McCain 48
Bob Barr 1

The deciding factor for President in North Carolina could be the weather on November 4th. Barack Obama is banking a huge lead among early voters, 63-36, who account for about a third of the likely electorate. But John McCain is up 53-42 with folks who plan to vote between now and election day. A rainy day could be to Obama's considerable benefit.

The tightening over the last week can be tied back to North Carolina voters reverting more to their usual trends. Obama had pulled to within 55-39 with white voters, but McCain's advantage there is now back up to 60-36.

McCain is also doing a better job of peeling off Democratic voters now, up to 19% compared to 14% a week ago. The percentage of poll respondents listing the economy as their top issue is below 60% for the first time in six weeks and that may have some culturally conservative white Democrats back to voting on values issues instead of the economy.

Nonetheless Obama still leads on the strength of a 51-39 lead with independents, a 65-24 advantage with folks who didn't vote in 2004, and his customary strong support from black and young voters.

Full results here

Grrr

For the most part I stay away from local tv news, and the closer to the election the better. Its political coverage tends to be at best vapid and at worst ignorant and inaccurate (with some exceptions, most notably Kim Genardo of NBC 17 in the Raleigh tv market.)

But our ABC affiliate's local news was on where I was eating dinner tonight so I didn't have much choice. The third or fourth top item was a breathless declaration that the race for President is rapidly tightening. The reason? Zogby's volatile tracking poll where there was apparently an amazing four point turn in John McCain's direction in one day! They of course did not complement this at all by looking at any other national polls where there continues to be little or no movement. Anytime something like this happens where the media exclusively covers an outlier poll I gets calls like 'what's wrong with Obama?' 'Is Bev finished?' And so forth. There's no doubt they have a lot of power to shape perceptions, I just wish they would use it more responsibly.

As long as I'm talking about 'on the ground' stuff in North Carolina, I know a lot of people have been concerned about the odd ballot we have here where casting a straight ticket ballot does not include a vote for President, and you have to vote for that separately. I went to vote yesterday and the poll workers were positively smothering in making sure I understood the quirks of the ballot. Like I seriously was informed about it by four different poll workers during my voting experience. I don't know if people are being as conscientious about it everywhere but at least based on what I encountered I wouldn't worry about it too much.

New Voters in Focus

We've been breaking out our swing state polls for the last week by whether people voted in 2004 or not and a few key trends are emerging:

-Overwhelming support for Barack Obama. This is not particularly surprising but the extent of it is still a little remarkable. He's up 55-24 with them in Ohio, 61-24 in Virginia, 68-24 in Indiana, and 64-26 in Florida.

-An unusual level of undecideds. 21% of new voters are undecided in Ohio. It's 15% in Virginia, 10% in Florida, and 8% in Indiana. All of those figures reflect higher undecideds than in the population at large. Are those folks really going to vote if they haven't before and don't have their minds made up? I'm not sure what the deal is there.

-Lots of independents, few Republicans. In Indiana 46% are independents, 38% Democrats, and just 16% Republicans. In Virginia it's 49% Democrats, 41% independents, and 10% Republicans. Ohio is 54% Democrats, 28% independents, and 18% Republicans. Florida is 45% Democrats, 35% independents, 20% Republicans.

-Minority voters are coming out. Blacks and Hispanics combine for 27% of the overall vote in Florida but 53% of the newcomers. In Ohio 23% of new voters are black compared to 12% of the electorate. In Virginia it's 30% for newbies compared to 20% total. The difference is less significant in Indiana- 12% of new voters compared to 10% in general.

Voter Movement in Virginia

It looks like there could be a shift of as many as 20 points in the Democratic direction in Virginia relative to 2004.

Certainly Barack Obama's 61-24 lead with new voters has a lot to do with that. But there's a lot more going on as well:

-A major shift in suburbia. When you hear about Virginia's changing electorate, this is where it's happening. Suburban voters in our poll reported supporting John Kerry just 48-44 in 2004. Now they're going for Obama 58-38. Given that almost half of Virginians describe themselves as suburbanites, this shift explains Obama's success in the state more than anything else.

-Independents turned on their heads. This is happening pretty much everywhere but that doesn't make it any less notable. The ones we surveyed supported George W. Bush 46-38 in 2004. Now they're for Obama 48-39.

-A big shift with young voters. The ones we surveyed who voted in 2004 supported John Kerry by a narrow margin of 42-36. Now the demographic as a whole support Obama 56-34.

Full results here

Obama hanging strong in Virginia

Barack Obama 52
John McCain 43

There has been little movement in Virginia since PPP showed Obama leading there by eight points two and a half weeks ago.

Obama's having success in the state for the same reasons he is in other battlegrounds:

-Strong support from independent voters. He's up 48-39 with them in Virginia.

-A party that's just as unified as the Republicans are. For our third Virginia poll in a row he is actually doing slightly better with Democrats- 89-8- than John McCain is with Republicans- 88-10.

-A competitive performance with white voters. He trails only 53-42 with them in a state where McCain would likely need at least a 60-40 split to win.

-Overwhelming support from new voters. He's up 61-24 with those who did not vote in 2004.

-Voters making their choice on the economy. 59% of them are, and Obama has a 63-32 lead within that group.

Mark Warner leads Jim Gilmore 60-32 for the state's open Senate seat.

Full results here

Shifts in Ohio

One of the things we're doing with our polls right now is asking folks who they voted for in 2004, so that we can get as a clear picture as possible of what voters are changing their preferences and fueling this large movement toward Obama.

This goes against the conventional wisdom a little bit but some of Obama's strongest gains in Ohio have come among small town voters. Folks in those places reported voting for Bush by a 54-35 margin but are now supporting Obama at a 48-45 clip.

Small town voters crossing over from Bush to Obama only account for 2.5% of the sample but even then it's an interesting profile to look at. 100% of them are white. 54% are independents and 38% are Republicans. Sound like an unusual Obama voter? Well 71% of this crew says the economy is its top concern, and that appears to be transcending any cultural differences.

There has also been a major swing among independent Ohioans toward Obama. In 2004 they reported going for Bush at a 51-38 rate. Now they're planning to vote for Obama 48-36, a 25 point shift since the last election.

One thing that seems to be getting lost in the shuffle right now is that young voters really were not that overwhelmingly supportive of John Kerry. The ones under 30 in this survey reported going 48-35 for the Democrat four years ago- they're now supporting Obama 64-28.

There has been movement in Obama's direction relative to John Kerry in every demographic we track.

Full results here.

Friday Night Special: Obama leads in Ohio

Barack Obama 51
John McCain 44

Barack Obama is up by seven points in Ohio, a result almost identical to a PPP poll conducted in early October that showed the Democratic nominee leading by six points in the state.

There haven't been any major shifts in the numbers since that time. Obama is doing well for the following reasons:

-A 48-36 lead with independents.

-Strong party unity. Ohio was one state where a Puma effect really did show itself over the summer. But now Obama is winning by almost the same margin with Democrats- 86-10- as McCain is with Republicans- 87-11.

-Obama is keeping it competitive with white voters. McCain only has a 49-46 lead with them, and given the state's 12% black population and their almost unanimous support for Obama, he really needs to be up at least ten with whites to take the state.

-60% of voters in the state list the economy as their top issue, and Obama has a 63-33 lead with them, giving him an 18 point lead in the grand scheme of the poll based on those respondents. McCain leads by 11 with folks who list anything else as their top issue.

-Obama leads 55-24 with folks who didn't vote in 2004.

Full results here

Obama and the Youth Vote

Republicans are gleeful about a new Gallup study out earlier this week suggesting that there may not be a large increase in youth turnout this year.

They're missing the point though: the strength Obama derives from young voters isn't necessarily about the quantity of their vote. There's been a major shift toward the Democrats in that age category relative to 2004 that will have a strong impact on the race whether there's a disproportionate increase in turnout or not.

We've polled in six battleground states over the last week and asked respondents who they supported for President in 2004 and who they're supporting this year. There's been a 17 point average shift in a Democratic direction among voters under 30:

State	2004 18-29	2008 18-29	Shift
North Carolina	Kerry 54-44	Obama 63-33	D+20
West Virginia	Bush 44-40	Obama 46-41	D+9
Indiana	Bush 42-31	Obama 54-40	D+25
Florida	Kerry 46-33	Obama 59-37	D+9
Ohio	Kerry 48-35	Obama 64-28	D+23
Virginia	Kerry 42-36	Obama 56-34	D+16
Average	Kerry 44-39	Obama 57-35	D+17

So let's say that young voters again comprise 17% of the vote nationally, as they did in 2004. A 17 point gain with 17 percent of the electorate is a three point gain for Obama, enough to make up the margin by which the Republicans won the popular vote nationally right there. Add in your increase in turnout from black voters and the white voters of all ages who chose Bush in 2004 but are going for Obama this year and you have the equation for a strong Democratic victory.

Change in North Carolina Politics

I've never really bought some of the pundit chatter that Pat McCrory is doing well because people are looking for change across the board. I think McCrory's polled surprisingly well because Bev Perdue has run a cruddy campaign, until recently.

This month's Civitas poll provides some evidence to back up what I've been thinking. They asked which candidate for Governor represents the change you want to see. The result? 43% said Perdue and 41% said McCrory. Perdue's standing on that account is actually a little better than her standing in the horse race on this poll, which shows the race tied.

When it comes to bringing change to the Legislature, 44% say the Democrats are the ones to do it while just 34% say the Republicans are. Is the Senate really going to flip this year? Not with those numbers. And I think we'll see Democratic gains in the House.

I am sure there are some of our 90th percentile voters- the most informed ones- who know that the Democrats run Raleigh and the Republicans run Washington and want to kick out those in charge on both fronts. But I think there are very few voters who pay enough attention to state government and things like DOT reform for McCrory, running as a Republican, to really get a lot of people to think he's the change candidate.

Bev Perdue's been saying a lot lately that the economy is the only issue in this election. She's right, but her campaign didn't reflect that until very late in the game. They're on the right track now though. She's gained seven points over the last three weeks, and it'll be interesting to see how that one stacks up this weekend.

Early Voting in North Carolina

There is no doubt that early voting statistics are bringing a lot of good news for Democrats in North Carolina.

I would caution against getting too hyper about it. For instance blacks have so far made up almost 29% of the electorate. It's important to keep in mind that during the primary 40% of early Democratic primary voters were black, but they only ended up comprising 34% of the total electorate when you factored in the election day voters. These early figures reflect a definite enthusiasm gap. It's also a lot easier to vote early in larger counties where a ton of sites are open at a wide variety of hours- those sorts of places tend to be more Democratic. Both those things said, the news is very good.

On the North Carolina tracking poll this week we'll ask people whether they've voted yet or not, and we will dig deep into those numbers on Monday to try to get a picture of what sort of electorate we can expect going into election day as well as whatever lessons we can learn about the voting preferences of those who have already cast their ballots- down ballot fatigue, ticket splitting, etc.

We're also going to have new polls next week for NC-8 and Wake County, each of which should give us a more detailed view of what's happening in some key parts of the state.

Next Round of Voting

Montana was a pretty clear winner for our final west coast poll. Now to the east coast. The finalists are...

-Georgia. Competitive Senate race and a possible sleeper state for Obama, although I have a feeling he'd be spending more money and contesting stronger there if he really felt like he had a chance at taking it.

-Wisconsin. It's still on the list of Nate Silver's tipping point states, almost all of which we intend to poll next week. We were the best pollster there for the Democratic primary.

Voting will be open until Saturday.

Longer Field Periods and Round Numbers

If there is one thing that I have found to be an absolute truism as a pollster in this year's election, it's that Barack Obama's supporters are harder to get in touch with than John McCain's and Hillary Clinton's.

During the early stages of the primary we released a lot of one night, one shot polls and consistently underestimated Obama by a whole heck of a lot (even if we still did better than a lot of our colleagues in places like South Carolina.)

So we started doing longer field periods and more callbacks starting with Wisconsin, and our polls were pretty much on the mark for the rest of the primary season (with of course one exception.)

This trend has continued in the general election. We conducted half the interviews for our Florida poll this week last Thursday night. The first night McCain led by 2. The data based on callbacks over the next three days gave Obama a 4 point lead.

It was a similar story in Colorado two weeks ago. The first night Obama led by 5. The rest of the field period he led by 15.

I don't think there was movement in Obama's direction in subsequent days either of those times. It's simply a matter that you have to try more times to get his supporters on the phone.

Which leads me to today's Quinnipiac Ohio poll showing Obama up by 14. That's a big difference from Rasmussen and Mason Dixon's polls earlier in the week that showed McCain winning, and I think part of the discrepancy can be traced back to the length of field time. Rasmussen's was a one night poll. Mason Dixon's was a two day poll. They couldn't have done that many, or any, callbacks to get folks on the line who weren't at home on the first shot. Quinnipiac was in the field for six days, and I'm guessing they managed to get a lot more of those elusive Obama supporters polled when they tried for the third or fourth time.

Another thing to consider when looking at polls is the number of respondents- not just whether it's a large or small number, but whether it's a nice even number or not. If it's a nice even number a lot of the time that means a pollster is just getting a set number of interviews and then stopping. That may have the potential to undercount support for Obama, again because his folks are harder to find. If it's a random number, that's an indication that folks have their sample and they've decided they're going to call everyone in it 'x' number of times and try to get as many respondents as they can get.

We're not going to be putting out Quinnipiac sort of numbers on Ohio this weekend: more like Suffolk numbers. But from my experience anyway the issue of field periods and round numbers may help to explain at least some of the 16 point difference you see between Rasmussen and Quinnipiac.

Swing Voters in North Carolina

We're now down to 4% of voters in North Carolina undecided and 7% of those who do have a preference open to changing their mind. That means the campaigns are spending a whole heck of a lot of money to try to win over 10-11% of the electorate. Who are these folks that still don't have their mind completely made up?

Solid Support

Both John McCain and Barack Obama have extremely solid support, although there are a few more Obama supporters open to changing their mind. 96% of McCain's supporters say they are definitely going to vote for him, while 93% of Obama's do.

Looking at folks leaning toward Obama who might flip, they're folks voting on the economy who probably supported Bush in 2004 and aren't 100% comfortable casting a ballot for a candidate who might be more liberal than they are. 38% are small town voters, compared to just 27% of the population overall. John McCain is going to need to either convince those folks that he will be as good on the economy as Obama, or that they should decide who to vote for based on other criteria.

Although Bob Barr has dropped to the 1-2% range in our polls that remaining support is still pretty weak. Just 37% of respondents expressing a preference for him said that they would definitely vote for him. I think those folks are undecideds 'parking' with Barr, and that his actual final share of the vote will be less than 1%.

Who's persuadable?

-The voters in the middle come heavily from two types of places that supported George W. Bush in 2004 but have been moving Democratic this year: suburban and small town voters. 70% of not completely decided voters are coming from those places even though they only account for 58% of voters overall. What you're seeing there is folks who are unhappy with the Republican Party but aren't totally convinced the Democrats would do a better job, so they're not sure which way to go.

-It's actually a pretty young segment of the electorate. 29% are under 30 and 62% are under 45, compared to just 16% and 44% for those figures in the population as a whole. While the intensity of Barack Obama's support has certainly been much higher among young voters, it appears some still have their doubts about both candidates.

-They are heavily concentrated in eastern North Carolina- more than a third of them are there even though only about a quarter of total voters are. I think this is definitely your registered Democrats who usually vote Republican in the Presidential election trying to decide if the economy's bad enough that they can vote for a candidate they disagree with on a whole bevy of social issues.

Throw out your voters who aren't completely committed and Obama leads McCain 47-42 here with Bob Barr picking up 1%. So Obama only needs to win about a third of the rest of the voters to take the state. He should be able to pull that off if there's not a big shift in the trajectory of the campaign over the next couple weeks.

Why Elizabeth Dole is (probably) going to lose

When the DSCC started pummeling Elizabeth Dole in August, this election became pretty much solely a referendum on her.

Dole could have survived that. North Carolina voters really liked her the first time she ran in 2002 and I don't think that really changed all that much in the last six years, even if some think she has not been a particularly good advocate for the state.

The problem is that instead of responding by putting Dole on the air, talking straight to the camera and saying that the ads were unfair and talking about what she had accomplished for North Carolina, her campaign just ran a bunch of mediocre negative ads against Kay Hagan, a politician we're probably going to be sending to the US Senate in two weeks who most North Carolinians know very little about.

The Dole response completely missed the boat: the election at this point has little to do with Kay Hagan and everything to do with Elizabeth Dole. The Dole campaign needed to respond to the DSCC attacks by reminding North Carolina voters why they like(d) Elizabeth Dole. But they didn't do that, and at this point it's probably too late. They let the DSCC define Dole in the voters' minds, and her campaign was way too slow to put its best asset- the candidate herself- forward so that she could try to redefine herself.

Dole could still win, but it's looking increasingly unlikely.

Coming up...

We're going to have new polls in Ohio and Virginia over the weekend. They went in the field tonight, and they're looking good. I think the tightening in Florida is the exception rather than the rule.

Other than North Carolina at the start of next week that'll be it for state polls until next Friday, when we'll release our first wave of final polls. We'll release a second, larger batch the day before the election.

For the most part we know where we're going to be polling, but we need to decide the final two states, and we're going to let you decide. There are four states in the running for the last two slots, a pair of western states and a pair of eastern states. We'll pick one from each of those categories to poll based on your votes.

First up are the western states. Your choices are:

-Washington. Obama is obviously going to win this state but it's worth polling for what may be the tightest Governor's race in the country, the rematch of the 2004 contest between Christine Gregoire and Dino Rossi.

-Montana. The down ballot stuff here isn't very interesting but some polling has shown it competitive in the Presidential race and Obama has been a constant presence in the state.

The poll is at the top of the page and voting will be open until noon Thursday. Later that day I'll put up the choices for the final eastern poll.

Love Letters to PPP

From: Stephen Zinn [mailto:stephen.zinn@sbcglobal.net]
Sent: Tue 10/21/2008 6:07 PM
To: PPP Information
Subject: indiana Poll

Hey, it worked! You got a bunch of hits on your web site! Congradulations you sleaze. Will you be part of the intelligencia of the new regime?
__________________________________
This guy is on to us! Senator Obama, if you are reading this, I was hoping for the appointment to the Court of St. James. But if you feel like you need to hook up Quinnipiac or Research 2000 first for their more friendly poll numbers I'll settle for Denmark where I can get in touch with my ancestry or Japan where I can still go see quality baseball several times a week.

In all seriousness though, we have gotten much less vitriolic e-mail and phone calls during the general election than we did during the primary. I don't know if people are just less emotional about it or what but it's been nothing compared to how nasty both Obama and Clinton supporters acted toward us at various times when they didn't like polls we put out.

Why Obama will win Ohio before Florida

There's been a lot of discussion about whether Ohio or Florida is more winnable for Barack Obama. I believe Ohio to be much more winnable and this is why:

-The white voters there are less conservative. The average of our last three Florida polls has Obama trailing by 18 points with white voters, 56-38. Our last three Ohio polls show Obama down by an average of just 12 points, 51-39.

-Florida just has too old of an electorate. We think voters over 65 will make up 22-25% of the folks turning out this year in Florida, and Obama is trailing on average with them 54-40 in our post-convention surveys there. Obama has a tough time with older voters in Ohio too, but his average deficit with them there is just 47-43, and either way they're not nearly as significant a part of the electorate. We think they'll account for 18-21% of the vote there.

-Florida Hispanics just aren't breaking for Obama the way they are everywhere else. The primary reason that Florida could be a better state for Obama than Ohio is that its non-white segment of the electorate is much larger. But since Obama is actually trailing with Hispanics in Florida right now that isn't doing a whole lot of good for him. He is faring better with them than white voters, but given that he's doing much more poorly with white voters in Florida than Ohio it's not enough to make the difference.

Of course this discussion is pretty elementary since Ohio and Florida have lost their must win status. Given how strongly he is doing in Virginia and Colorado, I believe Obama could lose both of these difference makers for George W. Bush and still have a 90% chance of winning the election.

Nonetheless if the election was today I think Obama would win both of these states, although the margin in Ohio would be a little better.

Close Race in Florida

Barack Obama 48
John McCain 47

Florida has tightened up a little since PPP's last poll of the state, with what was a 49-46 lead for Obama now 48-47.

There has been some movement in John McCain's direction with both white voters and Hispanics over the last three weeks. McCain's margin has increased five points with whites, from 52-41 to 55-39. Hispanic voters, who have swung back and forth both in PPP's polls and those of most organizations conducting surveys in Florida, are supporting McCain 50-46 after going for Obama by the exact same margin in our previous poll.

Two of the major factors that could determine who wins the state are:

1) The proportion of the electorate that ends up being white voters relative to the proportion who end up being black voters. We are projecting white voters at 69-70% and blacks at 13-14% and right now McCain's solid support with whites and Obama's overwhelmingly strong standing with blacks are basically canceling each other out. But if the final turnout figures end up skewing either more or less African American, depending on the success of Obama's turnout operation, that will have a major impact on the race whichever way it goes.

2) Because the white and black votes are practically a combined wash right now, Hispanic voters have the power to tip the election one way or another in these closing weeks. Most polling has shown the race extremely close with that demographic. If their votes tip strongly to either McCain or Obama in the closing, the person that benefits will win the state.

I think those are the main two things to watch in the final weeks in Florida.

Both candidates are having more trouble winning over their party's voters in Florida than they are in most places. Obama gets just 80% of Democrats while McCain is earning only 82% of Republican voters. Independents are going heavily for Obama, 52-35.

McCain is up 49-47 with folks who voted in 2004 while Obama has a 64-26 lead with new voters.

Full results here.

Council of State Numbers

Lieutenant Governor:

Walter Dalton 48
Robert Pittenger 36
Phillip Rhodes 6

Dalton appears to now be pulling away in this race after most of our previous polling showed it in the margin of error.

Attorney General:

Roy Cooper 59
Bob Crumley 32

Dear Mr. Cooper,

Please run against Richard Burr. You will win.

Thanks,

Tom

Superintendent:

June Atkinson 50
Richard Morgan 38

Atkinson, like Dalton, is starting to pull away.

Full results here.

Perdue lead grows

Bev Perdue 48
Pat McCrory 44
Michael Munger 4

Bev Perdue is out to the largest lead she's had in a PPP gubernatorial poll since August.

The issue of Yankee trash may end up being what puts Perdue in the Governor's mansion if she is able to pull out a win in this race. One of the essential problems plaguing her campaign has been that while Pat McCrory is racking up huge margins in the Charlotte metro area, Perdue has not been matching him with an unusually strong performance in her home base of eastern North Carolina. She may have found the issue to help her do that though.

Perdue this week leads 55-37 in northeastern North Carolina and 50-40 in southeastern North Carolina. Even though Barack Obama and Kay Hagan are running better than Perdue statewide, she is now for the first time strongly outrunning them in the east. Obama is up 4 in the NE and tied in the SE while Hagan is down 6 in the NE and up 5 in the SE. A week ago the race was basically tied in eastern North Carolina.

The Yankee trash doesn't get dumped on Charlotte, or Greensboro, or Raleigh. It gets dumped in the east, and making that an issue over the last week seems to really be helping Perdue in that area.

Another way to look at it: last week McCrory had an 18 point lead with rural voters. That's now down to 11. Perdue is now leading by six with small town voters. She previously trailed by one.

A lot could happen between now and election day, and this race certainly remains a tossup. But if Perdue really has turned the tide, it looks like Yankee trash is carrying the day.

Full results here.

Why is Indiana competitive?

In a lot of states Barack Obama is competitive in this year where he doesn't seem to have any business doing as well as he is, there are one or two things you can point to and say 'that's why.'

It's not that simple in Indiana though, because Obama has made significant gains relative to 2004 with pretty much every group of the electorate.

First let's look at folks who did vote in 2004:

-Independents who answered our poll said they went 46-36 for Bush in 2004, now they say they're 49-39 for Obama. That's a 20 point swing.

-But Obama is also peeling off a lot more Republicans than John Kerry did. Bush won them 92-4, but McCain is only up 86-10 in his own party. That's a 12 point gain for Obama even with GOP'ers.

-Obama is leaking a lot fewer Democratic voters here than Kerry did. Kerry won them 73-17, but Obama is taking them 84-11. A 17 point gain there means that Obama is doing double digits better with Democrats, Republicans, and independents relative to 2004 Democratic performance.

-Obama has significantly increased the Democratic performance with urban voters, as the conventional wisdom suggests and you might expect. A 51-38 lead from 2004 is now a 63-32 one. What you might not hear about as much is the fact that is making strong in roads with rural and small town voters as well. Bush won rural voters by 32 points last time, now Obama has halved that and trails McCain by just 16. Bush dominated in the small towns, winning 53-35 last time. Now Obama has the race with those voters in the margin of error, down just 47-44.

And of course the new voters don't hurt:

-Among poll respondents who said they did not cast a ballot in 2004, Obama is up 68-24. Part of that's because there's a lot of new Democratic voters, but among independents who didn't vote in 2004 Obama has a remarkable 65-24 advantage as well.

So why is Obama doing so well in Indiana? Because he's doing comparatively well with every kind of voter in every part of the state. It's an across the board movement.

Indiana Statewide Races

Governor:

Mitch Daniels 57
Jill Long Thompson 36

Some polling in the last month has showed this race competitive but we see pretty much no hope for Thompson in the numbers. Even among Democrats she's only leading 64-28, and she is getting plowed with independent voters, 56-32. There is not much doubt Indiana will see four more years of Mitch Daniels.

Attorney General:

Linda Pence 42
Greg Zoeller 39

This race is tight and there are a lot of undecideds. It could certainly go either way over the next two weeks.

Superintendent:

Tony Bennett 38
Richard Wood 36

Even more undecideds than in the AG race, this one is also way too close to call.

Full results here.

Obama holds a small lead in Indiana

Barack Obama 48
John McCain 46

Benefiting from overwhelming support among voters who didn't cast a ballot for President in 2004, Barack Obama has a small lead in Indiana.

New voters are going for Obama at a clip of 68-24, allowing him to overcome a 48-45 lead John McCain has with folks who did vote in the last Presidential election.

Obama has a 49-39 advantage with Hoosier state independents, and is doing almost as good a job as McCain of holding the support of voters within his own party. Obama is winning 84% of Democrats while McCain gets 86% of Republicans.

Obama is winning 89% of the black vote and remaining competitive enough among white voters to keep the overall lead. McCain is winning whites 51-42.

Just how important is the economy to Obama's chances in Indiana? 60% of the state's voters list it as their top issue, and Obama has a 59-34 lead with those folks. As a segment of the whole electorate that means Obama has a 15 point lead in the overall poll based on folks most concerned with the economy. Among respondents who list anything else as their biggest issue, McCain is up 13.

George W. Bush won Indiana by 21 points in 2004, and Obama's gains since then are coming from pretty much every group of the electorate.

Full results here.

Florida and Indiana Clue

Here's one to let your heads spin until tomorrow: Obama is doing better in our Indiana poll than our Florida one.

Hagan leads for the 7th time in a row

Kay Hagan 49
Elizabeth Dole 42
Christopher Cole 4

For the seventh PPP poll in a row Kay Hagan leads for North Carolina's US Senate seat, and for the third time in the last four polls that advantage is outside the margin of error.

North Carolina is a state with a large Democratic identification advantage. That means for Republicans to win here they need to take a much bigger chunk of the Democratic vote than Democratic candidates get of the Republican vote. But in this race those figures are nearly equal: Hagan is up 81-12 with Democrats and Dole is up 83-1o with Republicans. If Dole can't peel off more of the other party's voters than that she has virtually no chance of winning.

One thing helping Hagan is that she is shoring up the African American vote. Elizabeth Dole enjoyed unusual support for a Republican with them in 2002, and polled pretty well with that group throughout much of the summer. But Hagan now seems to have their vote largely nailed down, 84-7. There isn't much doubt that Barack Obama's coattails are having a strong impact here.

Hagan has nearly identical leads with both women and men, leads across three of four age groups, and has a 59-33 advantage with voters most concerned about the economy.

Hagan's campaign has been one of the best run in the country this year. I discussed that with Linda Wertheimer of NPR last week. Listen to it here.

Full results here.

Obama expands NC lead

Barack Obama 51
John McCain 44
Bob Barr 2

Barack Obama is out to his largest lead yet in a PPP survey of North Carolina, and his remarkably strong standing with white voters in the state is the main reason.

In both 2000 and 2004 George W. Bush won about two thirds of white voters here, but Obama is holding John McCain to a 55-39 lead with that group, almost halving the margin by which the GOP won them in the last two elections. McCain will likely need to increase his lead with whites by at least ten points if he's going to win North Carolina.

Obama's gains are being fueled by very strong performances with two of the fastest growing voter blocs in the state: suburbanites and independent voters. He is up 56-38 in suburbia, where Bush won convincingly in 2004, and has expanded his lead with independents to 51-33. He is now leading or tied in every region of the state except the lily white Mountains, and he's made large gains there as well compared to recent Democratic performance.

Obama also continues to unify his party here. As recently as August he was receiving the votes of only 69% of Democratic voters but that figure is now up to 82%. If a Democratic candidate in North Carolina gets anywhere in the ballpark of the same level of support within his own party as the Republican one does he'll win, and Obama's 82% is not that divergent from the 88% of Republicans McCain is getting.

The economy continues to poll as the top issue for more than 60% of voters in the state, and with those folks Obama is up 62-35.

Today is the first time I've truly believed that if there is no major shift in McCain's direction nationally over the next two weeks, Barack Obama really will win North Carolina.

Full results here.

Shifts in West Virginia

Something we're going to be doing with all of our polls for the rest of the campaign is asking respondents who they supported for President in 2004. If people answer that question honestly I think it's a better gauge for measuring shifts in the electorate than comparing our crosstabs to the 2004 exit polls, simply because a) our definitions of things like suburban, rural, etc. might not directly match up with those of the exit polls and b) there were some pretty serious flaws in the state exit polls that I have closely studied from that election so they should by no means be taken as the gospel.

In West Virginia Barack Obama has actually done a pretty good job of cutting Democratic losses from 2004 in the rural areas of the state. Respondents there indicated they supported George W. Bush at a 54-36 clip last time but now they're going for McCain just 50-40, an eight point gain for Obama.

I think this is the big story the media is missing when it so frequently conjures up Obama's increased success in the South almost exclusively to potential high turnout from black and young voters. The reality is that more than anything else it owes to convincing white voters who picked Bush in 2004 to go Democratic this time. In West Virginia, for example, 14% of 2004 Bush voters are now Obama supporters. More on the white voter shifts in our recent report here.

Another trend West Virginia exemplifies is that Obama will benefit considerably from the youth vote whether it makes up a larger proportion of the electorate than it did in 2004 or not. Poll respondents under 30 reported supporting Bush in 2004 44-40. But now they're going 46-41 for Obama. The support he is getting from young voters is not simply a matter of potential greater quantity of young voters than 2004- Obama's popularity with that demographic has a decent number of folks who chose the Republican last time going Democratic this time around.

Of course there is bad news for Obama in these comparisons as well:

-Self identified Democrats voted for John Kerry just 62-31 in 2004 and they're planning to support Obama only 62-29 this year. He would more than likely need to push that figure up beyond 70% if he is going to win the state but right now he appears to be showing little improvement upon Kerry's performance on that front.

-Even as Obama is doing five points better overall than Kerry did in the state in 2004, the Democratic standing with voters over 65 has fallen. Kerry held Bush to a 50-45 win with senior citizens in our poll. McCain is leading 52-41 with that some group of voters. For voters of a certain age there may just be a cultural discomfort with Obama that it will be hard for him to overcome.

We'll poll WV again in a couple weeks to see if these trends are holding.

Full results here.

West Virginia: McCain +8

John McCain 50
Barack Obama 42

Over the last month every time PPP has conducted a survey in a battleground state at least 60% of the electorate has named the economy as its top issue, and that has propelled Barack Obama into the lead in each of those places.

West Virginia is a different story. Just 54% of its citizens state the economy as their biggest concern. Coming in second at 15% with the state's voters? Moral and family values. And among those values voters John McCain has an 87-7 lead. Among all voters who list anything else as their top issue Obama leads by four in the state. But the 12 point margin McCain is racking up with them propels his overall lead there. Hence the challenge for Democrats in trying to take WV.

One of the things that has fueled Obama's success in nearby states like Virginia and North Carolina is conservative Democrats who often vote Republican for President choosing to stick with their party this year because they're prioritizing the economy over disagreements with national Democrats on issues like abortion and gay marriage. But Obama is winning Democratic voters just 62-29 in West Virginia. He's also down 53-36 with independents.

Although West Virginia is going to be a challenge for Democrats, there are some shifts since 2004 that bode well for Obama's chances. Those are discussed further here.

Someone sent us a second West Virginia sample so we'll poll it again the week before the election and see if the picture has gotten any better there for Obama as he puts more resources into the state.

Full results here.

Research 2000 NC Poll

Sometimes in polling two wrongs make a right.

I think that today's new Research 2000/Daily Kos Poll showing Kay Hagan leading by four and Barack Obama up by two in North Carolina is right on the money.

How they got there, however, does not match up with reality. In 2004 the electorate in North Carolina was about 79% white, 18.5% black, and 2.5% other. Although I'm sure it will be more colorful this year, Research 2000's projection of 69% white, 24% black, and 7% other is not realistic. 74% of registered voters in North Carolina are white, 21% are black, and 5% are other races. Typically non-white people here vote at a much lower rate than whites- if minority voters simply match the proportion of registered voters they comprise that would be a huge movement in and of itself, but they're not going to turn out at such a disproportionately high level that whites get pushed down to 69% of the electorate when they're 74% of registered voters.

(Before someone puts the demographics from the first few days of early voting in the comments to try to show me I'm wrong, keep in mind that over 40% of early voters during the primary were black but the election day voters were so disproportionately white that it pushed the total final African American share of the vote down to 34%.)

So if the Research 2000 poll significantly over samples minority voters, why aren't its numbers overly friendly to Obama and Hagan?

Because they find Obama getting just 27% of the white vote. This was the same problem with the R2K poll of North Carolina last month, which showed McCain with a 17 point lead. Simply put, Obama has zero chance of winning the state if he really only gets that percentage from white voters. He needs 35-36% at a bare minimum, and we've found him as high as 38% there the last few weeks.

I believe this poll is wrong in that it projects minorities to make up far too large a segment of the electorate, and it is wrong in that it gives Obama far too little of the white vote. But those two errors offset to produce topline numbers that are very reasonable.

Chickens and Eggs

There was an interesting article in the Wall Street Journal today about polls and party id weighting.

We are not weighting for party id this cycle. Although I don't think there are a lot of voters whose party id fluctuates by the week, month, or year I do think there are enough- probably no larger than 10% of the population- whose id is malleable enough that we're not comfortable pegging our polls to any specific figures for party.

We have found an increase in party id for Democrats in almost every single state this month as the race has moved toward Barack Obama:

State	Pre-Convention Margin	Pre-Convention Party ID	Current Margin	Current Party ID
Colorado	Obama +4	R+1	Obama +10	D+4
Florida	McCain +3	D+3	Obama +3	D+6
Michigan	Obama +3	D+3	Obama +10	D+7
Missouri	McCain +10	R+1	Obama +2	D+6
North Carolina	McCain +3	D+15	Obama +3	D+13
Ohio	Tied	D+7	Obama +6	D+10
Virginia	Obama +2	D+6	Obama +8	D+5
Average	McCain +1	D+4.6	Obama +6	D+7.3

On average Obama is doing seven points better than he was in August, but we're also finding almost a three point gain in Democratic party id. The two exceptions to the rule are Virginia and North Carolina. These are both southern states where a lot of self identified Democrats have tended to vote Republican for President. A great deal of Obama's forward movement in those two places over the last couple months has been the product of significantly increasing the share of votes he gets from folks in his own party.

Take those two states out of the analysis and here's your new chart:

State	Pre-Convention Margin	Pre-Convention Party ID	Current Margin	Current Party ID
Colorado	Obama +4	R+1	Obama +10	D+4
Florida	McCain +3	D+3	Obama +3	D+6
Michigan	Obama +3	D+3	Obama +10	D+7
Missouri	McCain +10	R+1	Obama +2	D+6
Ohio	Tied	D+7	Obama +6	D+10
Average	McCain +1.2	D+2.2	Obama +6.2	D+6.6

On average Obama's standing has improved by 7.4% and there's been almost as large an increase in Democratic party id, 4.4%

So here's the big question. Are more people identifying as Democrats because more people are voting for Obama? Or has party id remained flat over the last two months, in contrast to what we've found in our polls, and Obama is just doing better because we're over sampling Democrats?

The latter is what a lot of Republican polling pundits would like you to believe. I think the former is true. I think as voters move toward one candidate or another, they're also likely to move toward identifying with that candidate's party. Again, I don't think it's a huge number of voters shifting their party preferences, but I do think it's enough that weighting to predetermined party figures could keep your polls from reflecting real movement in the electorate.

I guess we'll find out who's right on November 5th.

NC races for Senator, Governor could be decided by casual Obama supporters

Right now the races for Senator and Governor in North Carolina are about as close as they could be, with Kay Hagan and Bev Perdue leading by two and one point respectively.

What's interesting to see though, is how the voters who are undecided in each of their races are stacking up for President. In the Governor's race folks who haven't made up their mind support Barack Obama over John McCain 53-30. It's a similar story in the Senate race, with the undecideds there going 50-27 for Obama.

This is the question that may determine who wins these contests: are folks coming out to vote overwhelmingly because of Barack Obama going to take the time to fill out the rest of the ballot?

If they do they're likely to vote Democratic up and down the line. Every rule in the book of North Carolina politics has been thrown out the window in 2008 and this is just another example of it: if I was Perdue or Hagan I'd be doing everything I can the next 18 days to tie myself to Obama, at least with new Democratic voters.

Shifts in North Carolina

On our most recent North Carolina poll we asked respondents not just who they were supporting for President this year, but also who they supported for President four years ago, regardless of whether they actually voted in the election. Interestingly it came out with George W. Bush ahead 51-46, a margin tighter than his actual 56-44 win in 2004.

There are two reasons for that. First, the electorate here is not the same as it was four years ago. People moving here from out of state, as well as black and young voters who didn't vote in 2004 but intend to this year, are all more likely to have been Kerry supporters than not. Second, there is a small segment of poll respondents who are not taking responsibility for having been Bush voters.

Either way 7% of North Carolina voters supported George W. Bush in 2004 but are going for Barack Obama this year. Add in all the new voters and you have the equation for Obama's current small lead in the state.

What's driving these party shifters? There's not much doubt it's the economy. 81% of Obama supporters who also supported Bush cite it as their top issue.

The candidates' level of supports from within their own parties are relatively similar to what they were in 2004, but there's been major movement toward Obama among independents. Bush won voters we surveyed in that category 49-44 in 2004 but Obama now has a 52-37 lead with that same group of poll respondents. In other words there's been a 20 point shift there.

Some folks have written off Obama's chances both in North Carolina and elsewhere by saying that the youth vote won't really turn out for him. What's interesting to note though is that there has been a major shift in how voters under 30 are leaning for President. The ones we polled in this most recent survey went for John Kerry 54-44. But they're supporting Barack Obama 63-33. So regardless of how much the quantity of the youth vote increases from the previous Presidential election, Obama is still picking up a good amount of ground there.

In terms of community type, the biggest shifts in Obama's direction are coming from suburban voters and those in small town North Carolina. Folks describing themselves as suburbanites went for Kerry 52-45 but now support Obama by a much wider 57-39 margin. Obama's also turned a 52-44 deficit with small town voters into a narrow 49-46 advantage.

Obama's made small gains with rural voters, cutting a 30 point Democratic deficit to a 25 point one. Urban voters remain the most static- 59-38 for Obama after being 59-39 for Kerry. The big difference here will be whether urban voters turn out at a high rate such that the share of the vote they comprise increases.

West Virginia Update

Someone sent me an up to date West Virginia sample that met all our specifications so we'll poll there this week after all. That's the power of the internet!

Council of State Races

Treasurer:

Janet Cowell 44
Bill Daughtridge 41

I have heard that Daughtridge is on television and Cowell is not- I guess I don't watch the right channels to see his ads. If true that would be a continuation of Cowell's disciplined campaigning in the primary where she held back on spending her money toward the tail end even as David Young went on the air earlier and saw his poll numbers improve. Given that Cowell is leading at this point anyway it seems she should be in good shape.

Insurance Commissioner:

Wayne Goodwin 43
John Odom 33
Mark McMains 10

Goodwin is starting to really pull away here.

Labor Commissioner:

Cherie Berry 45
Mary Fant Donnan 41

This is an improvement for Berry from last month although I'm not aware of either candidate really spending any money. Could just be statistical noise.

Full results here.

Governor's race still close as can be

Bev Perdue 45
Pat McCrory 44
Michael Munger 4

Not a whole let new to say here. The candidates have been within three points of each other every time we've polled this race since Labor Day.

Some people think independents are helping McCrory stay in this race, and while they do support him by a 41-37 margin, the bigger issue for Perdue is that she's losing too many voters from her own party. While McCrory has the support of 82% of Republican voters, Perdue's only at 74% with folks in her party. If she brings that closer to 80% she'll probably win.

Perdue is doing a good job of lining up the black vote- she is now polling at 82% with them. But McCrory is winning a full quarter of the white Democratic vote.

Perdue would also be in better shape if she was as popular with young voters as running mates Barack Obama and Kay Hagan. Each of them have a 30+ point lead with voters under 30, while Perdue is only up 11 with them. If she can get more of trickle down from the top of the ticket her standing will improve.

This one seems likely to be close to the end.

Full results here.

Where have all the PUMA's gone?

The following report is also available in PDF form on our main website:

There was a lot of bluster from certain supporters of Hillary Clinton, particularly in the days soon after Barack Obama became the presumptive nominee, that a huge chunk of Democratic voters would vote Republican or stay at home this fall. A lot of summer polling backed up their point, and showed a significant unity gap between Democratic and Republican voters.

In our final pre-convention polls of seven battleground states John McCain was winning 87% of the vote from self identified Republicans while Barack Obama was getting just 78% from Democrats. On average McCain’s lead with voters of his own party was 14 points greater than Obama, and the discrepancy was particularly remarkable in Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio. At that point McCain was winning in three of these states, losing in three of them, and tied in the seventh.

State	Democrats	Republicans	Difference
Colorado	Obama 85-11	McCain 84-11	D+1
Florida	Obama 76-16	McCain 84-12	R+12
Michigan	Obama 84-8	McCain 87-9	R+2
Missouri	Obama 78-15	McCain 92-7	R+22
North Carolina	Obama 69-19	McCain 86-6	R+30
Ohio	Obama 75-17	McCain 89-7	R+24
Virginia	Obama 84-12	McCain 89-8	R+9
Average	Obama 78-14	McCain 87-9	R+14

Current polling data, however, indicates that any PUMA effect that may have been present in summer polling is long gone in the post-convention period:

State	Democrats	Republicans	Difference
Colorado	Obama 89-7	McCain 85-10	D+7
Florida	Obama 81-15	McCain 84-11	R+7
Michigan	Obama 89-6	McCain 85-11	D+9
Missouri	Obama 89-7	McCain 92-7	R+3
North Carolina	Obama 79-18	McCain 89-7	R+21
Ohio	Obama 84-9	McCain 89-8	R+6
Virginia	Obama 91-6	McCain 89-8	D+4
Average	Obama 86-10	McCain 88-9	R+3

Now there is just a three point gap between the level of support McCain is getting from Republicans and that Obama is getting from Democrats. Obama has increased his average support within the party by 12% over the last two months while McCain has gained just a single point with voters in his.

One thing these numbers speak to is why Sarah Palin was such a poor choice of running mate for John McCain. For all the claims that she has motivated the Republican base the reality is that, enthusiastic about him or not, Republicans were already unified behind McCain before the convention. They would have come out to vote for him anyway out of dislike for Obama, and their unenthusiastic votes would have counted just the same as their enthusiastic ones.

He didn’t need to make a choice to mollify conservatives in the party who are less than enamored with him. Rather he needed to win over independents and conservative Democrats. But our polling has shown over and over again that Democratic voters really don’t like Palin, and that is particularly true with female voters who might have originally supported Hillary Clinton. The Palin pick has helped to unify support for Barack Obama among folks in his party.

Other factors helping lead to this increased party unity have been the downturn in the economy, helping to focus Democratic voters on the need for their party to be in power to deal with these issues, and the more enthusiastic support for Obama among Bill and Hillary Clinton.

Whatever the reason for the increased unity, there isn’t much doubt what its effect on the race has been:

State	Pre-Convention Poll	Most Recent Poll	Shift
Colorado	Obama +4	Obama +10	Obama +6
Florida	McCain +3	Obama +3	Obama +6
Michigan	Obama +3	Obama +10	Obama +7
Missouri	McCain +10	Obama +2	Obama +12
North Carolina	McCain +3	Obama +3	Obama +6
Ohio	Tie	Obama +6	Obama +6
Virginia	Obama +2	Obama +8	Obama +6
Average	McCain +1	Obama +6	Obama +7

Obama’s average gain across the board is seven points, with the shifts remarkably consistent: six point gains in five states, one seven point gain, and one twelve point gain.

The PUMA effect provided for an interesting media narrative during parts of the summer, but it doesn’t appear likely to end up having a real impact on the election.

West Virginia

I know you all want West Virginia, and frankly we do too.

If someone can get me a random sample of people who voted in the 2004 general election, 2006 general election, or 2008 primary in West Virginia then we will poll it. Concern about being able to get a sample of sufficient quality there is what makes us, and I'm guessing other companies that do registration based sampling, hesitant to poll there. That's not a problem with most other states.

Where should we poll next week?

This democracy thing worked out last week so let's try it again. Seven choices on where we can poll next week:

-Arizona. With Hispanic voters in the region unifying around Barack Obama, it could be at a surprising level of competitiveness. A refresh of how Janet Napolitano and John McCain might face off in 2010 would also be interesting.

-Georgia. This is one of three states I'm offering up as possibilities because their large black populations could make them surprisingly competitive if whites and blacks turn out at similar rates and Obama can pull off enough of the white vote. And of course the Senate race has become very tight.

-Indiana. I don't think any explanation is really needed.

-Michigan. That's what we would regularly be polling this week but it seems less pressing with McCain pulling out of the state. I like polling it because it's where I come from but beyond that...

-Mississippi. Similar to Georgia, and also with a compelling but under polled Senate race.

-Nevada. I'm sure this is firmly in the Obama column at this point but there still hasn't been that much polling confirming it.

-South Carolina. Similar to Mississippi and Georgia. When we polled it in July Obama was only down by six. Plus I'm curious to see how Stephen Colbert would stack up against Jim DeMint in 2010.

Personally I'm voting for South Carolina- but the majority will rule. Poll is at the top of the page and I'll keep it going until around 4 PM Thursday.

Missouri: Other Offices

As Barack Obama's standing in Missouri has improved, so has that of most other Democrats running for statewide office in the state.

Jay Nixon leads Kenny Hulshof 52-39 for Governor, up from 48-42 when we polled it in August.

Sam Page is making the race for Lieutenant Governor competitive. The challenger trailed Republican incumbent Peter Kinder 48-37, now it's just 47-44.

Robin Carnahan was a cinch for reelection as Secretary of State then, and she still is now. Her lead has increased from 49-39 to 54-39.

The race for Treasurer appears to be extremely close. Democrat Clint Zweifel is now up 42-41 after trailing Brad Lager 41-36 during the summer.

The margin in the contest for Attorney General has seen the least change. Democrat Chris Koster now leads 45-41, just a slight up tick from his previous 42-39 lead.

Full results here.

Obama takes a small lead in Missouri

Barack Obama 48
John McCain 46

Barack Obama has taken a small lead in Missouri after trailing by ten there in PPP's most recent previous poll of the state, conducted in late August.

A big trend between the two polls is increased Democratic unity in the state. Over the summer Obama was winning just 78-15 among voters in his own party. That's now up to 89-7. Obama has also cut down significantly on John McCain's margin with white voters. What was a 56-35 lead for the Republican with that group is now down to 52-42.

As it is in every state the economy appears to be a key factor in Obama's Missouri success. 63% of voters list it as their top concern, and among them he leads 57-38.

Part of what's making this state a tossup after it went for Bush in 2004 is shifts in suburbia. The 2004 exit poll showed the Republican winning 52-48 in the suburbs, but Obama currently has a 55-40 lead there.

Full results here.

Senate race tightens

Kay Hagan 46
Elizabeth Dole 44
Christopher Cole 5

Elizabeth Dole's been throwing everything but the kitchen sink at Kay Hagan for weeks now, and it finally appears to be having some impact. Hagan's lead in this race is now back within the margin of error for the first time since mid-September.

The movement here is similar to that seen in the Presidential race. Hagan is holding steady with an 11 point lead among independents, but Dole has made some in roads with Democrats, who now report supporting Hagan by a 75-16 margin, down from 79-12 last week. In her first race Dole benefited from a lot of support with conservative Democrats and she'll need to keep a lot of those voters in her camp to win reelection.

The good news for Hagan? Voters who are undecided for Senate overwhelmingly support Barack Obama for President, 50-27. She just needs to make sure they vote the rest of their ballot when they come out to vote Democratic for the top office, and she'll probably win.

One other note here: Libertarian Christopher Cole continues to poll very well in this race even as Bob Barr has become pretty much a complete non-factor. I think it is entirely possible that he will get a decent percentage of the vote, benefiting from folks disgusted with the mudslinging between Hagan and Dole. This will doubtless tempt pundits who don't do their research to declare that Cole is serving as as a spoiler for the Republican Dole, but the reality is that Cole's supporters go 40-36 for Barack Obama for President. Thus it would appear he is most likely taking equally from Hagan and Dole.

Full results here.

Obama maintains small NC lead

Barack Obama 49
John McCain 46
Bob Barr 1

Barack Obama continues to hold a small lead in North Carolina, although it is down from six points last week.

The McCain campaign has just recently started to really contest the race here, with the candidate making his first appearance in the state in five months yesterday. He has also ratcheted up his advertising, which seems to be having a mixed effect on his poll numbers. Independents, who may be turned off by the negativity of his campaign, have moved more toward Obama in the last week. What was a 46-40 lead with them is now a 52-37 advantage for the Democrat.

They may be helping on some fronts though. There has been six points of movement in McCain's direction among Democratic voters since the last poll, with what was an 82-15 advantage for Obama now down to 79-18. Obama's standing in the state had improved with each passing week as more conservative Democrats who sometimes choose Republicans for Preisdent had moved toward his camp. With McCain's campaign now trying even harder than usual to paint Obama as an extremist that may be having the effect of helping to get more of those folks to cross over to the Republican candidate.

Obama's unusually strong standing here continues to be fueled by voters in suburbia. They voted for George W. Bush in 2004 but Obama leads with them 57-39 this time around. That's the fastest growing group of the electorate in North Carolina, and if they continue to lean Democratic the state is going to be competitive at the national level for cycles to come.

Democrats had hoped that Bob Barr might play the role of spoiler here and take enough support away from John McCain that Obama could win the state with just 48 or 49% of the vote, but the Libertarian candidate has pretty much ceased to be a factor here.

The economy is polling as the top issue for a new record high of North Carolina voters: 65%. Obama leads 59-36 with those voters.

Full results here

Polling this week

We'll have both the North Carolina and Missouri Presidential polls tomorrow, apologies for the delay.

We'll also have a new poll set up on the blog for where we should conduct a survey this week besides Florida and North Carolina.

Udall continues to dominate in Colorado

Mark Udall 49
Bob Schaffer 39

Mark Udall has expanded his lead from eight points in a PPP survey three weeks ago to ten now. He has very strong across the board support- a 14 point lead with women, a 5 point lead with men, a 25 point lead with independents, leads with voters in every racial group, and a lead with three out of four age categories. In other words there's no group Bob Schaffer can really point to and say he'll benefit if they turn out in greater numbers because other than white Republicans they pretty much all favor his opponent.

Udall also has a 57-33 lead with voters who name the economy as their top concern.

Full results here.

Obama lead in Colorado hits double digits

Barack Obama 52
John McCain 42

With the Hispanic vote unifying behind him, Barack Obama is out to his largest lead yet in a PPP poll of Colorado.

Obama is now leading 71-21 with that group of voters, a considerable improvement from a 57-36 edge in PPP's survey of the state taken three weeks ago. The white vote is exactly the same as it was previously, a 48-47 advantage for Obama. Obama's margin has increased by three points since that poll, which showed him with a 51-44 advantage in the state.

The economy may be helping to drive Obama's gains. Three weeks ago 51% of voters in the state listed it as their biggest concern. That number has now spiked up to 60%. Among those folks Obama's lead is 60-34.

Colorado also provides a clear example of how Sarah Palin's popularity across the country continues to fall. Right after the GOP convention her favorability was 41/38. Three weeks later it was 38/47. Now it's dropped to 36/49.

The numbers paint a picture that shows it nearly impossible for McCain to win the state at this point. Only 6% of voters are undecided, and among those who do have a preference currently only 6% say there's any chance they could change their mind. Obama's lead at this point is such that McCain would have to win virtually every undecided, keep everyone who could change their mind currently supporting him in his camp, and win over almost 100% of current Obama supporters who say they aren't totally committed to him. The chances of all those things happening? Not very good.

Full results here.

North Carolina Judicial Candidate Party Affiliations

North Carolina has nonpartisan judicial elections but most of them really do pit a Democrat against a Republican.

Here are the races:

Supreme Court- Suzanne Reynolds (D) vs. Bob Edmunds (R)
Court of Appeals- Jim Wynn (D) vs. Jewel Ann Farlow (R)
Court of Appeals- Cheri Beasley (D) vs. Doug McCullough (R)
Court of Appeals- Linda Stephens (D) vs. Dan Barrett (R)
Court of Appeals- John Arrowood (D) vs. Bob Hunter (R)
Court of Appeals- Kristin Ruth (D) vs. Sam Ervin IV (D) (High turnout in the Democratic primary lifted both Democrats to the general election in this particular race.)

Hispanics in Colorado

The weekends tend to be slow for polling and I know you junkies need your fix so we're planning on releasing our newest Colorado poll tonight.

Remember when people were claiming earlier in the election cycle that Barack Obama was going to have a hard time with the Hispanic vote? In this newest survey he has a 71-21 lead with Hispanic voters. That's a major gain from our last poll in the state, when it was 57-36. If there are similar trends throughout the region it's safe to say New Mexico is going to be a landslide, Nevada is definitely going Obama, and Arizona, well, that may go on the list of states for you to choose from for our wild card poll next week.

But now on to more pressing things, go Heels, beat Notre Dame! Check back tonight...

McCain visits Eastern North Carolina as GOP standing in the region drops

John McCain is coming to Wilmington Monday less than a week after Sarah Palin visited Greenville last Tuesday. It's not surprising the Republican ticket is working hard to shore up its support east of I-95, because declining support there relative to 2004 for the party is one of the biggest reasons North Carolina is so competitive this fall.

According to the 2004 exit poll for North Carolina George W. Bush won a 60-40 victory in the eastern part of the state. This year the region is too close to call, with Barack Obama leading 47-46 there in an average of PPP's three most recent polls of the state.

With Obama likely to rack up huge majorities in the state's most populous counties, John McCain can't afford any outcome other than not just a win in the eastern part of the state, but a sizable one.

Obama's success in the eastern part of the state is emblematic of the strides he's made with small town voters throughout North Carolina. In 2004 George W. Bush won 57-43 with those voters, but Obama has a 47-44 advantage in those communities this time around.

New Hanover County will be a good bellwether on election night for what's going to happen statewide. In 2004 Bush won it 56-44. If it comes in early and shows Obama with a lead that will be a pretty good indication that he's going to fare well statewide. If McCain is able to maintain an advantage there in the ballpark of the 2004 Republican victory, it will be a sign that he may be able to hold on here.

Republican Wishful Thinking?

Someone came into the blog tonight googling 'are the polls only polling blacks?'

Hate to inform whoever was looking for the answer to that question that we're polling whites too.

White Voters in the South: Introduction

This is the introduction of our report on how shifts in the white vote relative to 2004 can explain most of Barack Obama's surprising success this year in the traditionally red southern states of Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia. You can read the whole thing here.
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The conventional wisdom is that Barack Obama is doing so well this year due to the likelihood of increased turnout and support from black voters and young voters. Those things are certainly important, but a strong majority of Obama’s gains relative to Democratic performance in 2004, even in the South, can be attributed to increased support from white voters. Concern over the economy and the direction of the country over the last few years are outweighing any trepidation white voters, particularly conservative Democrats and independents, might have about choosing a black man.

White Voters in the South: North Carolina

This is the North Carolina section of our report on how shifts in the white vote relative to 2004 can explain most of Barack Obama's surprising success this year in the traditionally red southern states of Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia. You can read the whole thing (with all the data included in chart form) here.
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First look at North Carolina. George W. Bush won there by 12 points in 2004, but PPP’s most recent poll shows Barack Obama with a six point advantage.

In 2004 black turnout accounted for approximately 19% of the vote*, and the exit poll shows John Kerry winning 85-14 with that group. That accounts for a 13.5% advantage as part of the overall vote.

PPP estimates that African Americans this year in North Carolina will account for 21% of the electorate, the same share that they comprise of registered voters. Currently Obama has a 92-4 lead with this group, giving him an 18.5% advantage as part of the overall vote.

That means Obama has picked up roughly five points based on increased black turnout and support for the Democratic candidate compared to 2004. But he’s polling right now 18 points better in the state than John Kerry did. Where’s all that extra support coming from?

Among the 78% of the electorate that was white in 2004 George W. Bush won roughly 67-33, accounting for a 26.5% lead as part of the overall vote. Subtract Kerry’s 13.5% margin based on the black vote combined with his one point edge among the small non-white, non-black segment of the population and you get Bush’s 12 point victory overall.

We expect the white vote this year to decrease to 76% because of increased turnout from black voters. In our most recent survey John McCain had a 56-38 lead with these voters, which gives him a 13.5% lead among white voters as part of the overall vote.

That’s a 13 point reduction of the deficit for the Democrat among white voters compared to 2004. So while Obama’s 5% increase from black voters is important, 2/3rds of his improved standing can be attributed to shifts in voting preferences among whites in North Carolina at this point.

White Voters in the South: Virginia

This is the Virginia section of our report on how shifts in the white vote relative to 2004 can explain most of Barack Obama's surprising success this year in the traditionally red southern states of Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia. You can read the whole thing (with all the data included in chart form) here.
__________________________________________________
George W. Bush won Virginia by eight points in 2004. PPP’s most recent poll of the state shows that result flipped, with Barack Obama leading by eight points.

In 2004 black turnout accounted for about 17%* of the electorate in Virginia. John Kerry won those voters 87-12. That gave him about a 13 point lead among black voters as part of the overall vote.

This year we estimate that black turnout in the state will be equal to their proportion of the state’s total population, or 20%. Obama currently has an 88-11 advantage with those voters. With the projected increase in black voting relative to 2004 that would give him a 15 point lead among blacks as part of the overall vote, or in other words just a two point gain compared to 2004.

Obama is looking at major gains among white voters though. In 2004 Bush beat John Kerry among them by a margin of roughly 65-35 in the state, with the white vote accounting for about 76% of the electorate. That gave Bush a 23 point lead among white voters as part of the overall vote, offsetting Kerry’s 13% advantage with black voters and 2% margin with other non-white voters to give him an overall victory margin of 8% in the state.

PPP’s most recent poll of Virginia shows Obama pulling within 52-42 of John McCain among white voters. We estimate whites will make up 73% of the electorate this year because of the increase in black turnout, which means McCain has a 7 point advantage among white voters as part of the overall vote.

That means Obama’s increased standing in Virginia compared to John Kerry is predicated on about a 16 point gain among white voters, as opposed to just about a 2% gain with blacks.

White Voters in the South: Florida

This is the Florida section of our report on how shifts in the white vote relative to 2004 can explain most of Barack Obama's surprising success this year in the traditionally red southern states of Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia. You can read the whole thing (with all the data discussed included in chart form) here.
___________________________________________________________
Florida isn’t seeing shifts quite as dramatic as those in North Carolina and Virginia. George W. Bush won the state by five points in 2004 and Barack Obama is holding a three point edge there in PPP’s latest poll.

The 2004 exit poll for Florida shows African Americans making up 12% of the electorate and John Kerry winning their votes by a margin of 86-13. That gave the Democratic nominee a 9 point lead among black voters as part of the overall vote.

This year PPP expects that black turnout in the Sunshine State will be equivalent to the percentage of registered voters in the state who are black, which is 13%. In our most recent poll Obama has a 92-6 lead with those voters, equating to an 11 point lead among black voters as a portion of the total vote. That’s a two point gain since 2004.

The Hispanic vote is also a factor in Florida. George W. Bush won their votes 56-44 in 2004 when they accounted for 15% of the total vote. That gave Bush a two point lead in the race overall based simply on the Hispanic vote.

Polls this year in Florida have been inconsistent as to which candidate is doing a better job of earning Hispanic support, but our most recent survey had Barack Obama with a 50-46 advantage among them, with their share of the electorate pegged at 13%. That gives Obama a pretty inconsequential half point advantage in the total poll. That two point increase for the Democratic nominee among Hispanics relative to the last Presidential election is equivalent to the extra boost that Obama is getting from the black vote in the state this year.

In 2004 white, non-Hispanic, voters made up 70% of the Florida electorate and gave George W. Bush a 57-42 victory, worth 11 points in the race as a whole. Add the two point edge he had from Hispanics that year and subtract the nine point disadvantage from black voters and it pretty much adds up to the five point victory he earned in the state.

PPP estimates that the white vote will again account for about 70% of the electorate in Florida this year. In our most recent poll John McCain has a 52-41 advantage. That gives him an 8 point lead among white voters as a portion of the overall electorate, equivalent to a three point gain for Barack Obama with that demographic in the state relative to John Kerry.

Thus Obama has gained 3 points among white voters, 2 among Hispanics, and 2 among blacks meaning his increased standing in Florida relative to 2004 is pretty well dispersed across racial lines in the state’s electorate.

White Voters in the South: Conclusion

This is the conclusion of our report on how shifts in the white vote relative to 2004 can explain most of Barack Obama's surprising success this year in the traditionally red southern states of Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia. You can read the whole thing here.
-------------------------------------------

We’ve established pretty clearly that much of what is allowing Obama to lead currently in North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida is actually improved standing with white voters relative to 2004 for the Democratic nominee, rather than the conventional wisdom that this is being driven by increased black turnout. That of course brings up another logical question: why is Obama doing better with these folks?

-Economy, Economy, Economy. Among white voters in North Carolina who list it as their top issue Obama is actually up 48-46. In Florida Obama has the same 48-46 lead with whites most concerned about the economy. In Virginia it’s a 49-46 advantage. Even as Obama continues to trail by a good amount with whites overall in these states, he’s winning with them on the issue foremost on voters’ minds this year. There’s not much doubt the economy is the main factor causing whites who voted Republican for President in 2004 to go Democratic this year. That is the single biggest factor driving his lead in the polls across the country right now.

Life in a swing state

Linda Wertheimer stopped by the office this afternoon to chat about the North Carolina political landscape. The BBC was here this morning. And Al Hunt called earlier in the week.

Somehow I don't think any of this happened in 2004.

Obama expands Virginia lead

Barack Obama 51
John McCain 43

For the first time in a PPP Virginia poll this year the outcome is something other than a two point lead for Barack Obama. He has opened up an eight point advantage in the state.

Obama's made tremendous strides with white voters over the last three weeks, cutting a 60-35 gap with them to 52-42. A PPP analysis earlier in the summer showed that Obama would most likely win Virginia if he could capture just 39% of the white vote, and at 42% currently with 6% still undecided it appears at this point he would reach that threshold easily.

As it is everywhere concern about the economy is driving gains for Obama. 63% of Virginians list it as their biggest issue, and among those voters he has a 59-36 lead. Independents have moved toward Obama in droves. Where three weeks ago McCain led 51-34 with them, Obama has flipped that to a 49-37 advantage in his direction.

The same gains in popularity for Joe Biden and drops for Sarah Palin that PPP has found everywhere else apply in Virginia as well. Immediately after the GOP convention Palin had a 42/40 favorability rating, which has now dropped to 37/46. Biden is up from 38/27 to 43/26.

In Virginia's US Senate race Mark Warner continues to hold a commanding 58-31 lead over Jim Gilmore while taking independents at a remarkable rate of 66-20.

Full results here.

Missouri It Is

Thanks for all of your votes, and particularly to Nate Silver for driving about 2/3rds of them!

Florida and Michigan are up in the rotation next week but we may think about subbing something else in for Michigan so perhaps we'll try this voting thing again.

Colorado is in the field right now and we're aiming for a weekend release, and we'll have North Carolina and Missouri toward the start of the week.

Virginia

I've been getting a lot of e-mails on this: the Virginia poll will be released tomorrow.

We haven't finished it yet, but at first glance Survey USA and Suffolk look pretty reasonable there.

Swing Voters in the Senate Race

Although Kay Hagan has a 49-40 lead in our most recent poll of the Senate race, the contest is by no means over. 7% of voters are undecided, and among the 93% who do have a current preference 20% say they could change their minds between now and the election. That leaves about a quarter of the vote up for grabs over the last month of the race, a smaller figure than the third of voters who are persuadable for Governor but a substantial number nonetheless.

Solid Support

Kay Hagan and Elizabeth Dole have equally solid levels of support. 82% of Dole's supporters say they're definitely going to support her, and 82% of Hagan's supporters are sure they'll vote for her. As in the Governor's race the Libertarian candidate has pretty weak support from people who may be 'parked' there until they choose between Dole and Hagan. Only 38% of those currently saying they support Christopher Cole report being firmly committed to him.

If you recalculate the state of the race with just voters who absolutely know who they are going to support for Senate you end up with Kay Hagan at 40%, Elizabeth Dole at 33%, and Christopher Cole at 2%. That certainly puts Hagan comfortably in the driver's seat but it's also far from over.

Who's Persuadable?

-Like the voters who were up in the air for Governor, the swing voters for Senate are a very Democratic leaning group, both in terms of their registration figures and the way they are leaning in their votes for other offices. 47% are Democrats, 30% are Republicans, and 23% are independents. They support Barack Obama for President by a 49-38 margin. Perdue and Hagan's fortunes are both going to have a lot to do with whether all these folks expressing support for Obama also cast ballots for the rest of the ticket. While only 21% of John McCain's supporters could go either way on their vote for Senate, 26% of Obama's supporters say they could. If those numbers were more equal Hagan would have the race virtually on lock.

-Somewhat along those lines, black voters make up 21% of the voters who could go either way for Senate, just as they make up 21% of the likely voting population. Usually the percentage of black undecided or weakly committed voters is a good deal smaller than the population as a whole because of their solid support of the Democratic Party but that isn't completely coming through yet in the race for Senate. Elizabeth Dole enjoyed surprisingly strong black support in 2002- that really isn't coming through this time, but Hagan may still have some work to do. Maybe Barack Obama has a couple minutes to record some robo calls for Hagan and Perdue.

-These voters are disproportionately from small towns. That's where Elizabeth Dole has tended to be very popular but clearly all the scrutiny of her effectiveness and attentiveness to North Carolina has raised doubts with a lot of these folks. Hagan has built up a 47-41 lead with them, but a large number are open to going back to Dole if she can convince them that she has done a good job or that Hagan's politics are too far out of line with theirs. This will be a key group to watch in polling over the rest of the campaign- if they start shifting Dole might have a chance but if they stick with Hagan she'll be up in DC picking out her office next month.

-Like in the Governor's race, there are a lot of persuadable voters in the under 30 demographic. These voters are coming out to vote for President, and a lot of them haven't given much attention to the rest of the ballot yet if they ever will. They're a hard group to target with mail or phone calls because they move so much, but the campaigns that do the best job of connecting with these voters in a substantive manner may get a leg up.

I expect that Kay Hagan will win this race since she has the lead already and the demographics of the swing voters favor a Democratic candidate but there are enough voters up for grabs that Elizabeth Dole at least has a bit of a chance.

Obama takes the lead in Ohio

Barack Obama 49
John McCain 43

With a commanding lead among voters most concerned about the economy, Barack Obama has taken back the lead in Ohio after trailing by four points in a PPP poll conducted three weeks ago.

61% of Ohioans list the economy as their biggest concern, up from 36% compared to a similar poll in January. Among those voters Obama has a 58-34 advantage over John McCain.

Much of the movement in Obama's direction since the last poll has come from a tightening among white voters. Where McCain previously had an 18 point advantage it is now just 6. Given the overwhelming support of black voters for Obama, McCain probably can't take the state without at least a 12 point advantage with whites.

Another key factor for Obama is that he is doing a much better job of holding onto the Democratic vote now than he was in previous surveys. He has an 84-9 lead with folks in his own party, compared to 78-16 last month. For all the bluster it appears that most of Hillary's supporters have come home.

Full results here.

Palin in Ohio

We'll get our new Ohio poll out in a few hours, but for now here's the before and after on Sarah Palin's standing in the state:

Date	Palin Favorability	Horse Race
9/14	43/36	McCain +4
10/5	40/43	?

Palin's popularity hasn't dropped quite as much here as it had in some other states, perhaps an indication that she made a small recovery with the debate. The trend nevertheless remains the same.

Council of State Races

Auditor:

Beth Wood (D) 42
Leslie Merritt (R) 36

This is the fifth poll in a row that has Wood in the lead, but it's also a good deal closer than it was in late August when we polled this race. Has Merritt been spending some money I'm not aware of?

Secretary of State:

Elaine Marshall (D) 47
Jack Sawyer (R) 35

Nothing to see here.

Agriculture Commissioner:

Steve Troxler (R) 41
Ronnie Ansley (D) 39

Troxler is probably the Republican Council of State member most likely to survive if there really ends up being a Democratic sweep, but this poll shows that things are getting tougher for him as voters move toward Barack Obama and Kay Hagan.

Full results here.

Perdue retakes the lead

Bev Perdue 46
Pat McCrory 43
Michael Munger 4

After refocusing her campaign on the economy over the last week, Bev Perdue has taken back the lead for Governor.

Perdue's ad campaign of late has tied Pat McCrory to George W. Bush's economic policies while also talking about what she would do to help things out if she was elected. Where last week she had a 48-38 lead among voters most concerned about the economy that has now increased to a 56-35 advantage. Starting to talk more about the issue that 60% of the electorate names as its top concern may have been the boost Perdue needed to start turning her declining poll numbers around.

She has improved her share of the Democratic vote from 69% last week now to 75%. If she can push that further to 80% over the course of the next month that should be good enough for a win, especially if Michael Munger continues to do so well with independent voters.

There's a 16 point gender gap in this race, with Perdue leading by 11 points among women but trailing by five points with men. McCrory has a small lead with independents. Perdue's up with voters under 45, McCrory leads with older voters.

Full results here.

This Week

At PPP we always try to be industry leaders for transparency and interaction with our readers, so I'm going to let you decide where we poll this week besides Colorado and North Carolina, from the choices of Missouri, Nevada, and South Carolina.

I see Missouri as very similar to North Carolina, a state with a small Obama advantage right now because of the emerging landslide (don't count your chickens, there's a long time left.)

Nevada I'm guessing Obama has a mid to upper single digit lead now but there still hasn't been much polling there.

South Carolina is a sleeper state. When we polled there in July McCain was only up by six and obviously the campaign is in a much different stage now. If we poll there I'm also going to test Stephen Colbert against Jim Demint in 2010 :)

Anyway the poll is at the top of the page and I'll leave it open for a couple days.

Hagan continues to hold large lead

Kay Hagan 49
Elizabeth Dole 40
Christopher Cole 5

Kay Hagan is continuing to hold a commanding lead in her effort to unseat Republican Senator Elizabeth Dole.

In a state like North Carolina with a large Democratic registration advantage, a Republican candidate has to peel off a lot of voters from the other party to win statewide. But Elizabeth Dole is barely winning more of the Democratic vote- 12%- than Kay Hagan is taking of the Republican vote- 9%. Add in a 44-33 lead for Hagan with independents and it's the recipe for a near double digit lead for the Democratic challenger.

Hagan is also making strong in roads in rural North Carolina- where John McCain has a 16 point lead over Barack Obama, Dole has just a five point advantage over Hagan. Our polling, both public and private, has also found that Hagan is playing extremely well with the state's quickly expanding group of suburban voters. She may well be the standard bearer of the profile of candidate who's going to be successful statewide in 21st century North Carolina.

Hagan continues to hold Dole to a not good enough ten point advantage with white voters, is winning almost every corner of the state, and has a 59-31 lead with respondents most concerned about the economy.

Full results here

The Power of Showing Up

Barack Obama's doing much better in North Carolina than you ever would have expected for a lot of reasons- concern over the economy, a superior field operation, likely record black turnout, etc.

But you should also never underestimate the power of showing up. John McCain had led in the Mountains by an average of six points over our last three polls before this week. After making an appearance in Asheville this weekend Obama led 54-37 in the western part of the state in this week's poll. Even with the usual caveat that the regional crosstabs are small sample sizes that is still a remarkable turnaround.

This isn't the first example of this phenomenon. Before Obama went to Charlotte three weeks ago he trailed 49-43 in the region. In the two polls there since his rally he's led by margins of 49-44 and 47-46.

Particularly for a place like Western North Carolina that isn't used to this kind of attention, an appearance from the candidate can make a difference. Independents in the Mountains give Obama a 60-30 advantage in this survey- for voters without strong allegiances to one party or the other, feeling the love more from one candidate than the other may be a tiebreaker in the ballot box.

John McCain has not made a public appearance in North Carolina for the last five months. He probably will now.

Obama expands NC lead

Barack Obama 50
John McCain 44
Bob Barr 2

It appears that sometime in the last week a lot of North Carolina Democrats who were undecided about Barack Obama decided he was their man.

For the first time in a PPP poll of North Carolina Obama is earning over 80% of the vote from self identified Democrats, and that's fueling a four point increase in his lead in the state compared to last week. He now has an 82-15 lead with voters in his own party. His share of the Democratic vote had been anywhere between 69 and 76% in PPP's previous five surveys of the state.

Republicans have won the Presidential race in North Carolina for decades by capturing anywhere from a fifth to a third of the Democratic vote. If John McCain does not continue that trend he will have a very difficult time winning the Tar Heel state, particularly since Obama is also up 46-40 with independents.

Obama is winning in every region of the state except the Triad, has upped his share of the white vote to 38%, and has a 60-34 lead among voters most concerned with the economy.

Full results here

As Palin visits NC, popularity down

Tomorrow Sarah Palin is coming to Greenville, North Carolina to speak of behalf of the McCain campaign.

Although Palin was initially very popular with Tar Heel voters, her popularity plummeted in the weeks following the Republican convention. While most people agreed her performance in the debate last week was better than expected, it has not improved her standing with Tar Heel voters as our newest poll shows her marks about the same place they were last week:

Date	Palin Favorability
9/9	42/34
9/28	38/41
10/5	39/41

Although Palin is not a particularly big hit with North Carolina voters overall the McCain campaign is being savvy by sending her to Greenville. Among respondents who describe the play they live as rural her favorability is 41/33 and those in small towns like her by a 42/39 margin. Those marks are down from 48/25 and 42/32 respectively right after the convention but she is at least still a net positive, unlike in the urban and suburban parts of the state.

While the debate doesn't seem to have done much for Palin's standing in North Carolina, Joe Biden's reviews are improving. Not as many voters have an opinion one way or the other about him as they do of Palin, but Biden has gone up to a net favorability of +11 after last week's debate:

9/9	32/25
9/28	31/28
10/5	34/23

The full results of this poll will be out later this afternoon.

Obama making progress in the Mountains

As Barack Obama campaigns in Asheville today, he is already doing much better in the Mountains of North Carolina than John Kerry did in 2004.

John McCain has led Obama by an average of 49-43 in the Mountains over the course of PPP's last three surveys. According to the 2004 exit polls George W. Bush won 59-41 in the region so Obama was already out pacing recent Democratic performance there by 12 points even before his visit this weekend.

A PPP analysis during the Democratic primary found that there are fewer black voters and fewer likely young voters in the Mountains than any other region of the state. Obama's strong performance there is an indicator that while his ability to turn out black and young voters at a higher rate is often cited as the reason for his surprising success in the state this fall, he is also winning over a good number of regular voters who supported George W. Bush in 2004.

He couldn't make up a 12% deficit from 2004 just with new voters, but he is also showing an ability to cut into Bush's overwhelming margins in some of the more conservative parts of the state and that combined with his registration efforts is fueling his current small lead in North Carolina.

Ohio Preview

After the first round of interviews for our Ohio poll I would say it's looking more Quinnipiac than SurveyUSA or Rasmussen, when compared with last week's Ohio polls.

Also, even though she had a decent debate performance it looks like Sarah Palin's had the same drop in her favorability in Ohio compared to a survey we did soon after the GOP convention that she had in every other state.

This should be out Tuesday, and of course things are subject to change as we do callbacks over the weekend.

Kissell leads by 3

Today dueling internal polls show Larry Kissell either leading Robin Hayes by 11 points or trailing him by 3 points.

As I've said before I think the best solution in these situations to really know what's going on is just average them. I'm guessing Kissell is up by about 4 points right now. That would mean a 9 point gain for the Democrat since we polled the race in late August and given the national political climate and the investment of the DCCC in the contest that seems like a reasonable amount of movement.

I wouldn't be feeling too good if I was Robin Hayes.

North Carolina Governor: Lots of Voters up for Grabs

While most North Carolina voters have their minds pretty firmly made up when it comes to voting for President, there are still a lot of votes to be had for Governor. 10% of voters are undecided in the race, and among those expressing a preference 26% say they could change their mind between now and the election. That basically means a full third of the electorate is still up for grabs and persuadable over the next five weeks.

Solid Support

At this point Pat McCrory has the most solid support. 79% of those planning to vote for him say their minds are completely made up. 73% of those supporting Bev Perdue say they are definitely going to vote for her. Only 43% of Michael Munger's supporters say they are solidly committed to him. Given that a majority of those planning to vote for Munger also are voting for Barack Obama, it seems likely that many of his voters would go over to Bev Perdue if she can give them more of a reason to support her in the final stretch of the campaign.

If you recalculate the state of the race with just voters who absolutely know who they are going to support for Governor you end up with Pat McCrory at 35%, Bev Perdue at 30%, and Michael Munger at 2%. While that's obviously good news for McCrory it also means that both candidates have a long way to go to the 48 or 49% it will take to win.

Who's Persuadable?

-The voters who don't have their minds completely made up are a very Democratic leaning group. The registration figures tell part of the story- 46% are Democrats, 28% are independents, and 26% are Republicans. But their voting preferences in other races give a greater hint- Barack Obama has a 51-35 lead with this segment of voters, and Kay Hagan leads 46-24 with them. It's another indication that Perdue hasn't done enough- yet- to excite her base voters in the way that Obama and Hagan have. But she should at least start out with a leg up in winning over these voters.

-Racially these folks have the same demographics of the electorate as a whole. Usually a disproportionately small number of swing voters are African Americans because of their general commitment to the Democratic Party, but that's not the case here. The Perdue campaign did an outstanding job of courting the black community during the primary election and probably needs to replicate those efforts rather than taking black votes for granted in the general.

-These voters are much younger than the electorate at large. 56% are under 45. A lot of these are lower information voters who know what they're doing for President but haven't given a ton of thought to the rest of the ballot. Neither campaign has actively courted this demographic on a broad scale but they are likely to be more powerful than ever before this year and could tip the election if one candidate gets a significant advantage with them.

-Geographically the regions that have the most disproportionate numbers of voters who could go either way are the Mountains and the Triad, not surprising since neither Perdue or McCrory have the strong regional bases in those places that they have in some other parts of the state.

With so many voters up for grabs truly anything could end up happening in this election. I believe a range of outcomes from a 10 point Perdue victory to a 10 point McCrory victory is possible, and the contest really will be decided by which candidate does the better job of connecting to this third of the electorate in the final month.

Palin Before and After

PPP has now polled in four states both immediately after and then again three weeks following the Republican convention. This chart shows how Sarah Palin's popularity has dropped and Barack Obama's lead has increased in each of those states over that period of time:

State	Palin Favorability	Palin Favorability	Change	Horse Race	Horse Race	Change
Colorado	41/38	38/47	-12	Obama +1	Obama +7	Obama +6
North Carolina	42/34	38/41	-11	McCain +4	Obama +2	Obama +6
Florida	45/34	40/41	-12	McCain +5	Obama +3	Obama +8
Michigan	45/35	39/43	-14	Obama +1	Obama +10	Obama +9
Average	43/35	39/43	-12	McCain +2	Obama +6	Obama +7

Michigan Poll

Barack Obama 51
John McCain 41

Barack Obama has opened up a ten point lead in Michigan after leading by just a single point right on the heels of the Republican convention.

The two main factors driving Obama's increased success seem to be the economy and Sarah Palin. 69% of Michigan voters, higher than in any other competitive state PPP has polled, list the economy as their top issue. Obama has a 54-37 lead with those respondents.

Sarah Palin has also seen her popularity declined rapidly. Right after the convention 45% of Michiganians said her selection made them more likely to vote for John McCain while 35% said it made them less likely to do so. Now just 39% say her place on the ticket makes them more inclined to vote for McCain as the number saying she hurts him has increased to 43%. That's a 14 point downward move in her net popularity over the last three weeks.

The overall impact of this has been:

-A 17 point gain for Obama with female voters, from a three point lead to a 20 point lead.
-A significant shoring up of the Democratic base. Where before he led 81-14 with voters of his own party, now it's 89-6. Not much doubt at this point that Hillary's supporters have come home.
-A tightening of the race with white voters. What was a 16 point lead for McCain is now just three.

Carl Levin continues to cruise for reelection to the Senate, leading challenger Jack Hoogendyk 50-32.

Full results here.

Did I mention...

That Palin is tanking everywhere?

Here is the teaser for our Michigan poll tomorrow:

Date	Palin Favorability	Horse Race
9/7	45/35	Obama +1
10/1	39/43	?

Obama and the Female Vote

Barack Obama has been running ads in heavy rotation on the radio in North Carolina targeting the female vote by contrasting his views on gender pay equity with those of John McCain. Are his efforts working?

Overall the effect seems to be pretty small- some segment of undecided women is moving in his direction:

Date	Obama’s Lead with Women
8/26	46-43
9/10	49-43
9/22	49-43
9/29	49-42

Beyond the topline number though there are some pretty strong indicators that his efforts are resonating with the particular women he needs to reach. In our August 26th poll John McCain was up 53-29 with independent women. Now Obama is up 45-40. He's also improved a 72-17 standing with Democratic women to a 75-16 one. His increasing strength with those two particular groups is an indication that his efforts are helping to win over former supporters of Hillary Clinton who may have been unsure whether they were going to stick with the Democratic Party in the general election or not.

Challenging the CW on Libertarian Votes

There is generally an assumption that a vote for a Libertarian is a vote taken away from a Republican. Our analysis finds that's not necessarily the case:

-60% of voters who support Michael Munger for Governor support Barack Obama for President with 19% going for Bob Barr and just 14% for John McCain. A plurality also support Kay Hagan (40%), with 36% going to Christopher Cole and 19% to Elizabeth Dole. So in this case his supporters are pretty clearly taking support from Bev Perdue. This could be a product of liberals antagonized by Perdue's stands on offshore drilling and community college attendance for illegal immigrants going over to Munger until Perdue gives them a reason to vote for her.

-Among those supporting Christopher Cole for Senate it is basically a dead heat between John McCain and Barack Obama. 39% of them go for McCain, 34% of them go for Obama, and 19% support Bob Barr. For Governor 44% support Pat McCrory, 30% for Munger, and 23% for Perdue.

-Bob Barr's supporters are also going Libertarian for US Senate- 41% support Cole, 28% support Hagan, and 25% support Dole. For Governor it's almost a three way tie, with 36% going for McCrory, 33% for Munger, and 27% for Perdue.

The bottom line? It looks the Libertarians are taking roughly equal numbers of voters from Republicans and Democrats, and if there is any lean toward them taking from Republicans it's a small one.

Media Notes

-I have to give major props to the Winston-Salem Journal for its piece on Elizabeth Dole's lacking amount of time spent in North Carolina. There's not enough good political journalism these days that relies on serious research.

-Speaking of good journalists: Kirk Ross of the Carrboro Citizen, one of the few print publications out there getting better as time goes on, is blogging about the election at Exile on Jones Street. Check him out.