Eight or nine months ago I would have told you that contentious primaries were a bad thing. In mid-March we did a set of general election match up polls in Florida and Ohio. Hillary Clinton was getting only 47% of the black vote in Ohio and just 51% in Florida. Obama was doing poorly with white Democrats, leading him overall to be earning only 59% of the Democratic vote in Ohio and 53% in Florida. There was most definitely a PUMA effect at that early point in the race, and I was eager for the nomination fight to be wrapped up as quick as possible because I thought we were killing our chances in the fall.
Well I was wrong. No way does Barack Obama win his improbable victories in North Carolina and Indiana during the general election if he doesn't compete there and start building up an infrastructure in the primary. He may not have won Pennsylvania in quite the blowout he did, and the state was one of Obama's key firewalls. In this case at least, the extended primary was crucial to the extent of the electoral college victory.
Now it was not necessarily inevitable that this party unification occurred. Obama and Clinton both did exactly what they needed to do to bring her supporters on board. We wrote a report in mid-October about the declining PUMA's and looked at some of the other factors that helped to get folks on the same page.
I think the competitive primary in North Carolina's Senate race ended up being a good thing for Kay Hagan's ultimate prospects as well. It forced her to go on the air during the primary, which built up her name recognition. The polls tightened up enough that the Elizabeth Dole campaign felt the need to blow a bunch of money going on the air in June and getting their numbers back to where they wanted. It worked, but then they seemed hesitant to strike back immediately when they started getting whacked by the DSCC in August and the rest is history. Hagan having to compete with Jim Neal helped set that process in motion.
Brutal primaries certainly can be very damaging to a nominee's ultimate prospects. But as we saw this year, if folks get on the same page quickly enough it can be a good thing too.
Where should we poll next week?
Friday, November 28, 2008
Thursday, November 27, 2008
Georgia-Georgia Tech
Georgia 48
Georgia Tech 25
No Preference 27
Almost two thirds of Georgians who have a preference will be rooting for the Bulldogs on the gridiron Saturday, the newest survey from Public Policy Polling finds. There are more folks who don't care than there are planning to root for Georgia Tech.
The survey also finds that younger fans are most supportive of Georgia while the Yellow Jackets get their highest level of support from those over 65, an indication that fanhood in the state will be even more fixated on the Bulldogs moving forward. Those under 30 root for Georgia by a 58-16 margin. The closest spread between the two schools is a 46-32 margin with senior citizens.
Although Democrats and Republicans each support Georgia by a wide margin, Republicans are more likely to care about the outcome of the football game. 32% of self identified Democrats say they don't care what happens in the game while only 22% of Republicans do.
This important research concludes Georgia week at PPP. The full results are here. Happy Thanksgiving!
Georgia Tech 25
No Preference 27
Almost two thirds of Georgians who have a preference will be rooting for the Bulldogs on the gridiron Saturday, the newest survey from Public Policy Polling finds. There are more folks who don't care than there are planning to root for Georgia Tech.
The survey also finds that younger fans are most supportive of Georgia while the Yellow Jackets get their highest level of support from those over 65, an indication that fanhood in the state will be even more fixated on the Bulldogs moving forward. Those under 30 root for Georgia by a 58-16 margin. The closest spread between the two schools is a 46-32 margin with senior citizens.
Although Democrats and Republicans each support Georgia by a wide margin, Republicans are more likely to care about the outcome of the football game. 32% of self identified Democrats say they don't care what happens in the game while only 22% of Republicans do.
This important research concludes Georgia week at PPP. The full results are here. Happy Thanksgiving!
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Georgia Governor 2010
Casey Cagle 44
Roy Barnes 43
John Oxendine 43
Roy Barnes 42
Casey Cagle 44
Jim Marshall 39
John Oxendine 44
Jim Marshall 38
Folks who follow Georgia politics already knew that the 2010 race for Governor was wide open, and this poll just provides more evidence of that.
Lieutenant Governor Casey Cagle and Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine would each lead former Governor Roy Barnes by a point in a hypothetical 2010 match up. Oxendine would lead Congressman Jim Marshall by six points and Cagle would lead him by five points.
It's hard to decide whether this data provides good news for Barnes or not. On the one hand any time a Democrat is polling close in this Republican state it's a good thing for that individual. At the same time numbers at this stage are a function of name recognition more than anything else, and you might expect Barnes to have the lead in these hypothetical match ups by virtue of his higher profile from his previous tenure in the Governor's office.
The other preliminary conclusion you can make from this data is that there is no difference in general election viability between Cagle and Oxendine on the Republican side.
And of course we don't know who of these folks will really end up running and what other viable candidates might end up entering the fray over the course of 2009.
Full results here.
Roy Barnes 43
John Oxendine 43
Roy Barnes 42
Casey Cagle 44
Jim Marshall 39
John Oxendine 44
Jim Marshall 38
Folks who follow Georgia politics already knew that the 2010 race for Governor was wide open, and this poll just provides more evidence of that.
Lieutenant Governor Casey Cagle and Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine would each lead former Governor Roy Barnes by a point in a hypothetical 2010 match up. Oxendine would lead Congressman Jim Marshall by six points and Cagle would lead him by five points.
It's hard to decide whether this data provides good news for Barnes or not. On the one hand any time a Democrat is polling close in this Republican state it's a good thing for that individual. At the same time numbers at this stage are a function of name recognition more than anything else, and you might expect Barnes to have the lead in these hypothetical match ups by virtue of his higher profile from his previous tenure in the Governor's office.
The other preliminary conclusion you can make from this data is that there is no difference in general election viability between Cagle and Oxendine on the Republican side.
And of course we don't know who of these folks will really end up running and what other viable candidates might end up entering the fray over the course of 2009.
Full results here.
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
Credit Where It's Due
Congratulations to Gary Bartlett and the North Carolina Board of Elections on another superbly run election.
Not only does the North Carolina SBOE do a good job of making sure things run smoothly at the polls, they're also a model for transparency in terms of how accessible and quickly updated things like voter registration statistics are.
If every state's elections were run as smoothly as they are in NC I think we'd have a lot more faith in the system nationwide.
Not only does the North Carolina SBOE do a good job of making sure things run smoothly at the polls, they're also a model for transparency in terms of how accessible and quickly updated things like voter registration statistics are.
If every state's elections were run as smoothly as they are in NC I think we'd have a lot more faith in the system nationwide.
Georgia Senate 2010
Johnny Isakson Approval
Approve 30
Disapprove 25
Not Sure 44
Isakson 45
Thurbert Baker 39
Isakson 47
Jim Marshall 38
New polling from PPP finds a high level of ambivalence toward first term Senator Johnny Isakson from Georgia voters. Only 30% of voters approve of his job performance but there isn't a large mass that disapproves either- a plurality have no opinion of him one way or the other.
Isakson has not done much to appeal across party lines during his first term. His approval among Democrats is just 8%. The problems with the economy may be hurting his appeal as well. Among voters who name it as their top issue just 27% approve of him with 29% disapproving.
In purely hypothetical match ups with Attorney General Thurbert Baker and Congressman Jim Marshall Isakson leads by six and nine points respectively. In each case there are at least twice as many undecided Democratic voters as there are Republican voters, an indication that the Democrats have more room to gain against Isakson once they line up behind a candidate.
Those leads for Isakson may seem solid but it is worth keeping in mind that early polling showed Jim Martin much further behind Saxby Chambliss than this poll shows Baker and Marshall behind Isakson. A June Strategic Vision poll showed Chambliss leading Martin 57-28 in what was then a hypothetical match up, and even as recently as September after Martin had been chosen as the nominee a SurveyUSA poll showed Chambliss leading him 53-36. It looks like at this very preliminary stage Isakson may be more vulnerable than Chambliss was.
The question of course is whether Democrats will strongly contest the seat. They don't have the deepest bench in Georgia, but Jim Martin's success has shown that even a relative obscure candidate can compete in the state under the right circumstances.
This data was derived from the same poll that showed Chambliss ahead of Martin 52-46 in the runoff yesterday.
Full results here.
Approve 30
Disapprove 25
Not Sure 44
Isakson 45
Thurbert Baker 39
Isakson 47
Jim Marshall 38
New polling from PPP finds a high level of ambivalence toward first term Senator Johnny Isakson from Georgia voters. Only 30% of voters approve of his job performance but there isn't a large mass that disapproves either- a plurality have no opinion of him one way or the other.
Isakson has not done much to appeal across party lines during his first term. His approval among Democrats is just 8%. The problems with the economy may be hurting his appeal as well. Among voters who name it as their top issue just 27% approve of him with 29% disapproving.
In purely hypothetical match ups with Attorney General Thurbert Baker and Congressman Jim Marshall Isakson leads by six and nine points respectively. In each case there are at least twice as many undecided Democratic voters as there are Republican voters, an indication that the Democrats have more room to gain against Isakson once they line up behind a candidate.
Those leads for Isakson may seem solid but it is worth keeping in mind that early polling showed Jim Martin much further behind Saxby Chambliss than this poll shows Baker and Marshall behind Isakson. A June Strategic Vision poll showed Chambliss leading Martin 57-28 in what was then a hypothetical match up, and even as recently as September after Martin had been chosen as the nominee a SurveyUSA poll showed Chambliss leading him 53-36. It looks like at this very preliminary stage Isakson may be more vulnerable than Chambliss was.
The question of course is whether Democrats will strongly contest the seat. They don't have the deepest bench in Georgia, but Jim Martin's success has shown that even a relative obscure candidate can compete in the state under the right circumstances.
This data was derived from the same poll that showed Chambliss ahead of Martin 52-46 in the runoff yesterday.
Full results here.
The Republican 'bench' in North Carolina
Thinking about the 2012 race for Governor in North Carolina and the 2014 race for Senate, it's really hard at this point to see who the Republicans are going to put up in those races.
Starting with the Senate race, think about the North Carolina GOP delegation in Congress. For one thing it's dwindling- they're down to five. And for the most part they're pretty darn old. The only one you can really see having any sort of political future is Patrick McHenry, but it's debatable how well he would hold up to the scrutiny of a statewide campaign. I think they're pretty much out.
In the Governor's race Pat McCrory would seem like the Republicans' best bet again. Of course Dino Rossi ran again as the Republican nominee for Governor of Washington this year after losing narrowly in 2004 and he got beat much worse the second time than he did the first time.
Another question: would the Republican field clear for McCrory if he wanted to give it another shot? It's worth remembering that he didn't get to 50% in the primary, and if a single conservative challenged him and actually ran a normal media driven campaign it seems like there's some chance McCrory wouldn't even make it to the general.
Republicans had a chance with open seats for Lieutenant Governor and Treasurer this year to get some folks into a good launching point for a Gubernatorial campaign but they fell short and I don't think a Labor or Agriculture Commissioner in the state has ascended to higher office any time recently or maybe ever.
So it doesn't look good for the GOP moving forward- but at the same time no one probably would have imagined two or three years ago that Kay Hagan would be headed to the US Senate. So there's certainly a precedent for successfully moving from relative political obscurity to the limelight.
Who do you think will be the emerging statewide stars for the Republicans over the next few election cycles?
Starting with the Senate race, think about the North Carolina GOP delegation in Congress. For one thing it's dwindling- they're down to five. And for the most part they're pretty darn old. The only one you can really see having any sort of political future is Patrick McHenry, but it's debatable how well he would hold up to the scrutiny of a statewide campaign. I think they're pretty much out.
In the Governor's race Pat McCrory would seem like the Republicans' best bet again. Of course Dino Rossi ran again as the Republican nominee for Governor of Washington this year after losing narrowly in 2004 and he got beat much worse the second time than he did the first time.
Another question: would the Republican field clear for McCrory if he wanted to give it another shot? It's worth remembering that he didn't get to 50% in the primary, and if a single conservative challenged him and actually ran a normal media driven campaign it seems like there's some chance McCrory wouldn't even make it to the general.
Republicans had a chance with open seats for Lieutenant Governor and Treasurer this year to get some folks into a good launching point for a Gubernatorial campaign but they fell short and I don't think a Labor or Agriculture Commissioner in the state has ascended to higher office any time recently or maybe ever.
So it doesn't look good for the GOP moving forward- but at the same time no one probably would have imagined two or three years ago that Kay Hagan would be headed to the US Senate. So there's certainly a precedent for successfully moving from relative political obscurity to the limelight.
Who do you think will be the emerging statewide stars for the Republicans over the next few election cycles?
Monday, November 24, 2008
More from Georgia
We released our Senate numbers for Georgia today but we have plenty more coming from the poll over the course of the week:
-Tomorrow we'll take a look ahead to the 2010 Senate race, gauging Johnny Isakson's approval rating and testing him against a couple potential challengers. A plurality of Georgians say Johnny Who?
-Wednesday we take a quick peek at the Governor's race there in 2010, looking at how four potential match ups might shake out.
-Thanksgiving is for football, and on Thursday we'll take a look at who folks across the state will be pulling for in Saturday's showdown between Georgia and Georgia Tech.
It's a slow time for polling so we milked this runoff poll for whatever it was worth! Stay tuned throughout the week.
-Tomorrow we'll take a look ahead to the 2010 Senate race, gauging Johnny Isakson's approval rating and testing him against a couple potential challengers. A plurality of Georgians say Johnny Who?
-Wednesday we take a quick peek at the Governor's race there in 2010, looking at how four potential match ups might shake out.
-Thanksgiving is for football, and on Thursday we'll take a look at who folks across the state will be pulling for in Saturday's showdown between Georgia and Georgia Tech.
It's a slow time for polling so we milked this runoff poll for whatever it was worth! Stay tuned throughout the week.
Georgia: Chambliss expands lead
Saxby Chambliss 52
Jim Martin 46
Benefiting from increased support with independent voters since the general election, Saxby Chambliss has expanded his lead to six points in Georgia's runoff election for US Senate, an improvement from the three point advantage he had on election day.
In PPP's final pre election poll Chambliss led Martin 44-41 with independents, as Libertarian Allen Buckley earned 12% of their votes. Now Martin is still at 41%, but Chambliss' share of the indy vote has gone from 44% to 53%. Each candidate is earning over 90% support from voters within his own party. That's an increase from the last poll we did before the November 4th election, and an indication that those planning to turn out for the runoff may be mostly the strongest of party stalwarts.
Chambliss leads 69-29 with white voters. Even with a higher than expected black turnout for the runoff that share of the white vote would not be good enough for Martin to win- he needs to move closer to a third of it.
Martin leads with voters under 45, but Chambliss has a staggering 69-31 lead with senior citizens, and with the balance of the electorate between older and younger voters tipping in an old direction for the runoff, that makes Martin's climb that much harder.
Full results here
Jim Martin 46
Benefiting from increased support with independent voters since the general election, Saxby Chambliss has expanded his lead to six points in Georgia's runoff election for US Senate, an improvement from the three point advantage he had on election day.
In PPP's final pre election poll Chambliss led Martin 44-41 with independents, as Libertarian Allen Buckley earned 12% of their votes. Now Martin is still at 41%, but Chambliss' share of the indy vote has gone from 44% to 53%. Each candidate is earning over 90% support from voters within his own party. That's an increase from the last poll we did before the November 4th election, and an indication that those planning to turn out for the runoff may be mostly the strongest of party stalwarts.
Chambliss leads 69-29 with white voters. Even with a higher than expected black turnout for the runoff that share of the white vote would not be good enough for Martin to win- he needs to move closer to a third of it.
Martin leads with voters under 45, but Chambliss has a staggering 69-31 lead with senior citizens, and with the balance of the electorate between older and younger voters tipping in an old direction for the runoff, that makes Martin's climb that much harder.
Full results here
Turnout in Georgia
Some assorted notes on our first Georgia runoff poll:
-The level of response to this poll was 17% less than that for our final pre-election Presidential poll in the state. It's not totally an apples to apples comparison since the two polls were not conducted in exactly the same way in terms of when the calls were made and things like that but nevertheless it is a clear indicator that fewer people are planning to vote this time around than did for the general election.
-We did not detect any drop in black turnout relative to the Presidential election. We expect that will again be in the 28-30% range.
-We did, however, find a significant drop in those under the age of 30 planning to vote in this race and a related increase in the percentage of voters over 65. That could have a pretty significant impact on the election since we found Saxby Chambliss up by 38 points with senior citizens but down by 8 with young voters. Some of the younger voters who Barack Obama brought into the political process this year and voted for Jim Martin as long as they were at it may not come out to vote in a contest with Martin as the main attraction.
On the whole we don't sense there will be a huge difference in the demographic composition of the electorate compared to November 4th, but the changes we did detect at least for this first runoff poll work to the incumbent's advantage.
-The level of response to this poll was 17% less than that for our final pre-election Presidential poll in the state. It's not totally an apples to apples comparison since the two polls were not conducted in exactly the same way in terms of when the calls were made and things like that but nevertheless it is a clear indicator that fewer people are planning to vote this time around than did for the general election.
-We did not detect any drop in black turnout relative to the Presidential election. We expect that will again be in the 28-30% range.
-We did, however, find a significant drop in those under the age of 30 planning to vote in this race and a related increase in the percentage of voters over 65. That could have a pretty significant impact on the election since we found Saxby Chambliss up by 38 points with senior citizens but down by 8 with young voters. Some of the younger voters who Barack Obama brought into the political process this year and voted for Jim Martin as long as they were at it may not come out to vote in a contest with Martin as the main attraction.
On the whole we don't sense there will be a huge difference in the demographic composition of the electorate compared to November 4th, but the changes we did detect at least for this first runoff poll work to the incumbent's advantage.
Friday, November 21, 2008
Civitas Post-Election Survey
Civitas came out with a post-election survey earlier this week. Here's what I found interesting:
-Slightly more people said that North Carolina was headed in the right direction than off on the wrong track. Whenever we ask that question about the national picture markedly more people say that things are off on the wrong track. That's why the Democrats are going to be running Washington now while also continuing to hold control in Raleigh.
-When people who didn't vote for Barack Obama were asked why, only 2% said that it was because of his 'associations.' John McCain's ad campaign in the state was way too focused on random abstractions like Ayers that the voters didn't care about, and he didn't do a good job of showing folks why they should vote for him.
-Only 2% of respondents who didn't vote for Kay Hagan said it was because she was too liberal. I think the Republican strategy of using liberal as an expletive and thinking that's going to be good enough to win them elections in this state is over. I'm going to have more on that sometime soon.
-16% of folks who voted against Elizabeth Dole said they did it because they didn't like her campaign ads, second only to the number of people who said they didn't support her because she was a Republican. We didn't need much more evidence that Godless Americans was a disaster, but there is some.
-By comparison only 1% of people who didn't vote for Bev Perdue said it was because of her ads. Pat McCrory deserves a gold medal for whining with all of the post-election excuse making he and his supporters have done, but the truth of the matter is that if he really didn't believe in negative campaigning he should have asked the RGA to pull its ads. The reality is that he was happy to let other people do his dirty work for him, and as far as I'm concerned he has zero credibility on that issue.
-Our polling has repeatedly shown the Palin pick was a disaster for John McCain in North Carolina, and Civitas shows it once again. Just 23% of voters said her selection made them more likely to vote for McCain with 40% saying that it made them less likely to do so. Media coverage of Palin's visits to the state focused too much on her adoring crowds and not enough on the fact that while she was very popular with Republican base voters she was a turn off to independents and an overall drag on the ticket here.
-Slightly more people said that North Carolina was headed in the right direction than off on the wrong track. Whenever we ask that question about the national picture markedly more people say that things are off on the wrong track. That's why the Democrats are going to be running Washington now while also continuing to hold control in Raleigh.
-When people who didn't vote for Barack Obama were asked why, only 2% said that it was because of his 'associations.' John McCain's ad campaign in the state was way too focused on random abstractions like Ayers that the voters didn't care about, and he didn't do a good job of showing folks why they should vote for him.
-Only 2% of respondents who didn't vote for Kay Hagan said it was because she was too liberal. I think the Republican strategy of using liberal as an expletive and thinking that's going to be good enough to win them elections in this state is over. I'm going to have more on that sometime soon.
-16% of folks who voted against Elizabeth Dole said they did it because they didn't like her campaign ads, second only to the number of people who said they didn't support her because she was a Republican. We didn't need much more evidence that Godless Americans was a disaster, but there is some.
-By comparison only 1% of people who didn't vote for Bev Perdue said it was because of her ads. Pat McCrory deserves a gold medal for whining with all of the post-election excuse making he and his supporters have done, but the truth of the matter is that if he really didn't believe in negative campaigning he should have asked the RGA to pull its ads. The reality is that he was happy to let other people do his dirty work for him, and as far as I'm concerned he has zero credibility on that issue.
-Our polling has repeatedly shown the Palin pick was a disaster for John McCain in North Carolina, and Civitas shows it once again. Just 23% of voters said her selection made them more likely to vote for McCain with 40% saying that it made them less likely to do so. Media coverage of Palin's visits to the state focused too much on her adoring crowds and not enough on the fact that while she was very popular with Republican base voters she was a turn off to independents and an overall drag on the ticket here.
Jim Martin
Last night I was contemplating the oddity of the fact that Jim Martin lost a bid for Lieutenant Governor of Georgia by 12 points just two years ago but had now forced a runoff in his quest for a much more important office.
When I thought about it though I guess it's not that unusual. Sarah Palin, of course, lost in the Republican primary for Lieutenant Governor in Alaska six years ago and has now risen to much greater heights. And I know of at least one Senate colleague Martin will have if he's elected who also got elected to the body not too long after a losing contest for Lieutenant Governor- does anyone know who it is?
You can figure the answer pretty easily if you figure out why I would know this bit of arcana about this particular person.
When I thought about it though I guess it's not that unusual. Sarah Palin, of course, lost in the Republican primary for Lieutenant Governor in Alaska six years ago and has now risen to much greater heights. And I know of at least one Senate colleague Martin will have if he's elected who also got elected to the body not too long after a losing contest for Lieutenant Governor- does anyone know who it is?
You can figure the answer pretty easily if you figure out why I would know this bit of arcana about this particular person.
Thursday, November 20, 2008
Ruminating on Burr
Last month I told a luncheon crowd I was speaking to that if I was Richard Burr, and my first priority was really getting reelected in 2010, that I would vote for Barack Obama in the privacy of the ballot box.
Why? Can you imagine how endangered vulnerable Republicans like Burr, Mel Martinez, and George Voinovich would be two years from now if the country stayed on its current course and there was still a Republican in the White House? Any hopes of reelection would have gone kaput.
Now if things continue to go bad they can blame it on the Democrats, which should give at least some boost to Burr's hopes for reelection.
The question is whether 2010 will be more like 1994 or 2002. Obviously Democrats got hammered after Bill Clinton's first two years in the White House, and that's the overwhelming historic trend. But the Republicans broke that trend, at least for one cycle, in 2002.
The fact that Barack Obama's transition seems to continue the remarkable discipline his campaign showed bodes well for his ability to govern. And the reality is that what happens in North Carolina in 2010 will probably have a lot more to do with Obama than it does with either Burr or whoever ends up challenging him.
Why? Can you imagine how endangered vulnerable Republicans like Burr, Mel Martinez, and George Voinovich would be two years from now if the country stayed on its current course and there was still a Republican in the White House? Any hopes of reelection would have gone kaput.
Now if things continue to go bad they can blame it on the Democrats, which should give at least some boost to Burr's hopes for reelection.
The question is whether 2010 will be more like 1994 or 2002. Obviously Democrats got hammered after Bill Clinton's first two years in the White House, and that's the overwhelming historic trend. But the Republicans broke that trend, at least for one cycle, in 2002.
The fact that Barack Obama's transition seems to continue the remarkable discipline his campaign showed bodes well for his ability to govern. And the reality is that what happens in North Carolina in 2010 will probably have a lot more to do with Obama than it does with either Burr or whoever ends up challenging him.
What's a spoiler?
At Under the Dome Ryan points out that Bob Barr received more votes than Barack Obama's margin of victory over John McCain in North Carolina and declares him to have been a spoiler.
I guess it depends on how you define spoiler. Merriam Webster says 'one (as a political candidate) having little or no chance of winning but capable of depriving a rival of success.'
Did Bob Barr cost John McCain North Carolina? I don't think so. Barr got about 26,000 votes. Obama won by about 14,000 votes. McCain would have had to win the Barr voters about 77-23 to make up his margin relative to Obama.
An analysis we did in early October found that Barr supporters were voting for Democrats and Republicans almost evenly in races for offices like Governor and Senate. And as a commenter on that thread pointed out, a lot of Libertarian voters may just not have come out at all if their only choices had been the major party candidates.
On the list of reasons why Barack Obama won North Carolina I think you can put Bob Barr's presence on the ballot at about #468.
I guess it depends on how you define spoiler. Merriam Webster says 'one (as a political candidate) having little or no chance of winning but capable of depriving a rival of success.'
Did Bob Barr cost John McCain North Carolina? I don't think so. Barr got about 26,000 votes. Obama won by about 14,000 votes. McCain would have had to win the Barr voters about 77-23 to make up his margin relative to Obama.
An analysis we did in early October found that Barr supporters were voting for Democrats and Republicans almost evenly in races for offices like Governor and Senate. And as a commenter on that thread pointed out, a lot of Libertarian voters may just not have come out at all if their only choices had been the major party candidates.
On the list of reasons why Barack Obama won North Carolina I think you can put Bob Barr's presence on the ballot at about #468.
Georgia Runoff
By popular demand we'll have polls on the Georgia Senate runoff out each of the next two Mondays.
There are some tough choices to make in terms of sampling and weighting with a weird election like this, and the fact that we're going to have to conduct the final poll over Thanksgiving weekend just makes it that more challenging.
We're going to use the same sampling criteria we did for November 4th: folks who voted in the 2004 general, 2006 general, 2008 Presidential primary, or 2008 state primary. We gave some thought to narrowing the sampling criteria, and think it's highly unlikely turnout will match or even come that close to matching what it was for the general election. But one of the nice things about IVR is that people who aren't going to vote or don't care about the election can weed themselves out by just hanging up on us, instead of possibly feeling a compulsion to tell a live interviewer that they do intend to vote. So we're going to go with the broader sample and assume that anyone willing to take the time to answer the poll is also going to be willing to take the time to go out and vote.
As far as weighting, we went into our set of 16 final state polls with a pretty clear idea of how we were going to set up the polls by race and age regardless of what the composition of those who responded to the polls was. I think we did a very good job of projecting demographics, but this election is a whole different bird so we're going to take the composition of who is actually responding to the polls into account a lot more than we usually would over the next two weeks. I've had several questions about what we project black turnout for the runoff to be and the answer at this point is we really just don't know. We'll look at how our polls come out and decide based on that.
In addition to looking at Jim Martin and Saxby Chambliss our first Georgia poll will peak forward to 2010...and the Georgia/Georgia Tech football game. Stay tuned.
There are some tough choices to make in terms of sampling and weighting with a weird election like this, and the fact that we're going to have to conduct the final poll over Thanksgiving weekend just makes it that more challenging.
We're going to use the same sampling criteria we did for November 4th: folks who voted in the 2004 general, 2006 general, 2008 Presidential primary, or 2008 state primary. We gave some thought to narrowing the sampling criteria, and think it's highly unlikely turnout will match or even come that close to matching what it was for the general election. But one of the nice things about IVR is that people who aren't going to vote or don't care about the election can weed themselves out by just hanging up on us, instead of possibly feeling a compulsion to tell a live interviewer that they do intend to vote. So we're going to go with the broader sample and assume that anyone willing to take the time to answer the poll is also going to be willing to take the time to go out and vote.
As far as weighting, we went into our set of 16 final state polls with a pretty clear idea of how we were going to set up the polls by race and age regardless of what the composition of those who responded to the polls was. I think we did a very good job of projecting demographics, but this election is a whole different bird so we're going to take the composition of who is actually responding to the polls into account a lot more than we usually would over the next two weeks. I've had several questions about what we project black turnout for the runoff to be and the answer at this point is we really just don't know. We'll look at how our polls come out and decide based on that.
In addition to looking at Jim Martin and Saxby Chambliss our first Georgia poll will peak forward to 2010...and the Georgia/Georgia Tech football game. Stay tuned.
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
More of Southern Democrats exceeding expectations
I pointed out yesterday that although I thought it was a stretch a year ago, Barack Obama beat John McCain overall in the states of Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida.
I also said at the time that I didn't think overall voter dissatisfaction with Congress would extend to that many Congressional seats actually changing hands in the region.
Well I'm happy to say I was wrong about that too. Six seats in the region (three in Virginia, two in Florida, and one in North Carolina) went Democratic with one in Florida going Republican. That's a disproportionate number of the House seats going Democratic coming from ACC territory.
Although I didn't expect Democrats to do this well in the region, I did think that writing it off would be a terrible mistake. Somehow I don't think there's going to be nearly as much debate about whether Democrats should make an effort here during future election cycles.
I also said at the time that I didn't think overall voter dissatisfaction with Congress would extend to that many Congressional seats actually changing hands in the region.
Well I'm happy to say I was wrong about that too. Six seats in the region (three in Virginia, two in Florida, and one in North Carolina) went Democratic with one in Florida going Republican. That's a disproportionate number of the House seats going Democratic coming from ACC territory.
Although I didn't expect Democrats to do this well in the region, I did think that writing it off would be a terrible mistake. Somehow I don't think there's going to be nearly as much debate about whether Democrats should make an effort here during future election cycles.
Michigan voters spread blame around on Auto Crisis
A new PPP poll finds that Michigan voters think there's plenty of blame to go around when it comes to the current crisis with the auto industry.
92% of respondents think that the management of the companies have at least some responsbility for the situation, 81% think that the UAW does, and 72% think the same of the government.
When asked which group they think is singularly most responsible, 43% said management with the UAW in second at 25%.
The UAW is not in particularly good standing with the state's voters. Just 42% have an overall positive view of the organization, and only 18% say they would be more likely to vote for a candidate endorsed by the UAW with 39% saying they would be less likely to do so. Although it remains in pretty good standing with Democratic voters it is very unpopular with Republicans and also gets poor marks from independent voters, who have a 35/50 unfavorable view of it.
Full results here
92% of respondents think that the management of the companies have at least some responsbility for the situation, 81% think that the UAW does, and 72% think the same of the government.
When asked which group they think is singularly most responsible, 43% said management with the UAW in second at 25%.
The UAW is not in particularly good standing with the state's voters. Just 42% have an overall positive view of the organization, and only 18% say they would be more likely to vote for a candidate endorsed by the UAW with 39% saying they would be less likely to do so. Although it remains in pretty good standing with Democratic voters it is very unpopular with Republicans and also gets poor marks from independent voters, who have a 35/50 unfavorable view of it.
Full results here
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Looking Back
Like most bloggers who focus on elections I'm struggling right now with a fair amount of 'what the heck am I supposed to write about now?' in an effort to keep the blog interesting.
One thing I did today was look back at the stuff I wrote about this time last year and saw that I marveled at a multi state poll including Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida that showed the Democrat winning on a generic Presidential ballot. That seemed shocking and almost implausible at the time given that all five had been red states in both 2000 and 2004.
I just tallied up the votes from those five states and lo and behold Barack Obama did carry them by about 65k votes, or the equivalent of about a quarter of a point.
But you know, Democrats should write off the south.
One thing I did today was look back at the stuff I wrote about this time last year and saw that I marveled at a multi state poll including Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida that showed the Democrat winning on a generic Presidential ballot. That seemed shocking and almost implausible at the time given that all five had been red states in both 2000 and 2004.
I just tallied up the votes from those five states and lo and behold Barack Obama did carry them by about 65k votes, or the equivalent of about a quarter of a point.
But you know, Democrats should write off the south.
The Buckley Effect
The reason there's a runoff for the US Senate in Georgia is that Libertarian candidate Allen Buckley pulled around 3.5% of the vote, holding Saxby Chambliss below 50%.
The winner of the runoff will have a lot more to do with grassroots mobilization and who can get his voters out to the polls than it will with where Buckley's voters go. But it's still worth looking at where those who supported Buckley's loyalties may lie.
On our final pre election poll in Georgia we found that:
-36% of Buckley's supporters were for John McCain, 32% were for Barack Obama, and 30% were supporting the Libertarian 'ticket' and also supporting Bob Barr.
-32% were Republicans, 20% were Democrats, and 48% didn't identify with either party.
-They were a very young group of voters. 30% were under 30, compared to 17% in the overall population. Only 40% were over the age of 45, compared to 54% in the population at large.
What does that all add up to? Chambliss might have the slightest of advantages with those who supported Buckley but it's basically a wash.
The winner of the runoff will have a lot more to do with grassroots mobilization and who can get his voters out to the polls than it will with where Buckley's voters go. But it's still worth looking at where those who supported Buckley's loyalties may lie.
On our final pre election poll in Georgia we found that:
-36% of Buckley's supporters were for John McCain, 32% were for Barack Obama, and 30% were supporting the Libertarian 'ticket' and also supporting Bob Barr.
-32% were Republicans, 20% were Democrats, and 48% didn't identify with either party.
-They were a very young group of voters. 30% were under 30, compared to 17% in the overall population. Only 40% were over the age of 45, compared to 54% in the population at large.
What does that all add up to? Chambliss might have the slightest of advantages with those who supported Buckley but it's basically a wash.
Monday, November 17, 2008
The Issues Changed: Introduction
PPP's newest report looks at how the issues changed over the course of 2008 in the key swing states of Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio and how that contributed to Barack Obama's landslide victory. This is the section on Ohio. You can read the full report here.
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Certainly there were a lot of mechanical reasons for Barack Obama’s election as President. He ran one of the most well organized, well funded, and well disciplined campaigns in modern political history. But there can also be no doubt that the biggest factor in his overwhelming victory is that the issues changed between the beginning of 2008 and election day.
PPP asked the same standard issues question in January when it first polled a potential John McCain/Barack Obama match up in
The Issues Changed: Florida
PPP's newest report looks at how the issues changed over the course of 2008 in the key swing states of Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio and how that contributed to Barack Obama's landslide victory. This is the section on Florida. You can read the full report here.
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When PPP first polled a McCain/Obama contest in
By late October the economy was 61%, the war was at 12%, and immigration was the biggest concern for only 2% of Floridians.
John McCain’s prospects in the state were definitely hurt by decreased voter concern over immigration:
| Month | % listing immigration as top issue | McCain lead with those voters | Overall McCain advantage based on immigration voters |
| January | 11 | 78-8 | 7.7% |
| October | 2 | 59-32 | .5% |
Even though only 11% of voters were describing immigration as their main concern in early 2008, they were supporting John McCain at such an overwhelming rate that he was picking up the equivalent of almost an eight point lead overall based on those voters. In other words almost his entire January lead over Obama in
| Month | % listing economy as top issue | Obama lead with those voters | Overall Obama lead based on economy voters |
| January | 26 | 53-36 | 4.4% |
| October | 61 | 57-36 | 12.8% |
Obama’s lead among voters whose top concern was the economy barely changed at all between January and November. But the proportion of voters sure did, to the point where Obama picked up nearly eight and a half points between the winter and fall just among those voters. Given that he was down six in January and won the state by three in November it doesn’t seem too much of a stretch to say that increased voter worry over the economy was probably the single biggest factor driving the Democratic victory in the
Independents and conservative Democrats who might have decided who to vote for President based on a set of issues that is favorable to Republicans at the top of the ticket in a normal election year instead voted on the economy, and that was crucial to Obama’s prospects.
The Issues Changed: North Carolina
PPP's newest report looks at how the issues changed over the course of 2008 in the key swing states of Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio and how that contributed to Barack Obama's landslide victory. This is the section on North Carolina. You can read the full report here.
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If you want some perspective on just how remarkable Barack Obama’s victory in
Early in 2008 39% of North Carolinians said the economy was their top issue, 22% said the War in
By the end of the election it was 59% for the economy, 11% for the war, and 2% for immigration.
| Month | % listing immigration as top issue | McCain lead with those voters | Overall McCain lead based on immigration voters |
| January | 9 | 77-5 | 6.5% |
| October | 2 | 90-5 | 1.7% |
Immigration voters weren’t quite as vital to McCain’s support in
McCain’s early position in
| Month | % listing economy as top issue | Race with those voters | Overall lead based on economy voters |
| January | 39 | 48-42 McCain | 2.3% McCain |
| October | 59 | 62-36 Obama | 15.3% Obama |
The Issues Changed: Ohio
PPP's newest report looks at how the issues changed over the course of 2008 in the key swing states of Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio and how that contributed to Barack Obama's landslide victory. This is the section on Ohio. You can read the full report here.
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In January 39% of Ohioans listed the economy as their top issue, with 28% saying it was the War in Iraq
In late October the portion of voters in the state calling the economy their top concern had gone up to 60%, with the war down to 12%, and immigration, like in Florida and North Carolina
McCain was getting a big boost in the state earlier in the year from those immigration voters:
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| Month | % listing immigration as top issue | McCain lead with those voters | Overall McCain lead based on immigration voters |
| January | 9 | 74-14 | 5.4% |
| October | 2 | 81-11 | 1.4% |
With McCain holding just a slight early lead over Obama at the start of the year those voters most concerned about immigration were pretty vital to his ability to take the state, but by the end of the election that constituency, like in Florida and North Carolina, had gravitated toward greater worry over the economy and that again was to Obama’s advantage:
| Month | % listing economy as top issue | Obama lead with those voters | Overall Obama lead based on economy voters |
| January | 39 | 47-36 | 4.3% |
| October | 60 | 63-33 | 18% |
Obama benefited from the increase in concern over the economy, but he also did a much better job of convincing voters over the course of the year that he was the better candidate on that issue.
The Issues Changed: Conclusion
PPP's newest report looks at how the issues changed over the course of 2008 in the key swing states of Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio and how that contributed to Barack Obama's landslide victory. This is the conclusion. You can read the full report here.
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in deciding who to vote for in January. It was no different at the end of the election, still 11%. It’s the same story with taxes. 5% of voters in these swing states said that was their biggest worry at the start of the year and at the end of the election cycle it was 6%, showing essentially no change. It was only immigration that showed such a strong decline, perhaps an indication that taxes and morality will be big issues for at least some American voters regardless of the political climate in perpetuity, but immigration may be ‘passing through’ as a top concern for American voters.
Would Barack Obama have won the election if the economy hadn’t been so overwhelmingly the top issue? Probably so. He never trailed in a PPP poll of Virginia or Colorado
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Spring Interns pt. 2
Update: Just to clarify in response to some questions, this is a 200 hour internship (roughly 15 hrs/week) over the course of the spring semester and we're pretty flexible on scheduling.
PPP will be hiring one paid intern for the spring. This is not a coffee pouring experience- our interns work on our day to day polling as well as writing and analyzing several of their own polls.
I expect this to be a competitive process. If you'd like to apply please e-mail (tomj at publicpolicypolling dot com) me a copy of your resume and a 250 word examination (a blog post, essentially) of something about the numbers that you thought was interesting about the election in North Carolina.
We'll be taking applications through next Friday, November 21st. We'll pick several folks to interview the first couple days of the next week and hopefully have an offer made by Thanksgiving.
We'll start the process for summer intern selection in February.
PPP will be hiring one paid intern for the spring. This is not a coffee pouring experience- our interns work on our day to day polling as well as writing and analyzing several of their own polls.
I expect this to be a competitive process. If you'd like to apply please e-mail (tomj at publicpolicypolling dot com) me a copy of your resume and a 250 word examination (a blog post, essentially) of something about the numbers that you thought was interesting about the election in North Carolina.
We'll be taking applications through next Friday, November 21st. We'll pick several folks to interview the first couple days of the next week and hopefully have an offer made by Thanksgiving.
We'll start the process for summer intern selection in February.
Friday, November 14, 2008
Heath Shuler
In an interview with the Hendersonville Times-News, Heath Shuler doesn't rule out a run for the Senate in 2010.
I think Shuler is the second strongest possible candidate for the Democrats behind Roy Cooper.
The immediate concern is whether a Shuler run would cost the Democrats a Congressional seat that they reclaimed for the first time in 16 years just one election ago, but I think there is a strong bench in that district.
John Snow represents a very Republican eight county state Senate district contained completely within the 11th District and won every single one of the counties in his reelection bid this year even as Barack Obama won just one of them.
Joe Sam Queen is the Senator for a similarly Republican district in the Mountains. He won four out of six counties this year in his reelection bid: the two counties he lost are in the 10th District while the ones he won are all within the 11th.
If Shuler ran the Democrats' recruitment should start with those guys since it's imperative the Democrats nominate someone who's shown an ability to win outside Buncombe County.
As for the Republicans, well, the best they could dredge up this year was a guy who could pull only 36% of the vote. I like the Democrats' chances for keeping this seat Shuler or no Shuler barring a major shift in the national political climate.
I think Shuler is the second strongest possible candidate for the Democrats behind Roy Cooper.
The immediate concern is whether a Shuler run would cost the Democrats a Congressional seat that they reclaimed for the first time in 16 years just one election ago, but I think there is a strong bench in that district.
John Snow represents a very Republican eight county state Senate district contained completely within the 11th District and won every single one of the counties in his reelection bid this year even as Barack Obama won just one of them.
Joe Sam Queen is the Senator for a similarly Republican district in the Mountains. He won four out of six counties this year in his reelection bid: the two counties he lost are in the 10th District while the ones he won are all within the 11th.
If Shuler ran the Democrats' recruitment should start with those guys since it's imperative the Democrats nominate someone who's shown an ability to win outside Buncombe County.
As for the Republicans, well, the best they could dredge up this year was a guy who could pull only 36% of the vote. I like the Democrats' chances for keeping this seat Shuler or no Shuler barring a major shift in the national political climate.
Palin in 2012?
A lot of buzz about Sarah Palin running for President next time around this week. I got interviewed about it for this story and it got me to thinking about it more.
For the Republicans to win next time I don't think inspiring the base is going to be enough. They're going to have to win over the independent voters, particularly in suburbia, who voted for George W. Bush in 2004 but then supported Barack Obama this time.
The problem is that she may well have been part of the problem John McCain had with those voters. Here's her favorability in some key swing states with suburban independents:
Her consistent unpopularity within that demographic across this quintet of relatively different states is striking. I'm sure the Republican base was very excited about Barry Goldwater too, and nominating Sarah Palin could generate a 1964-esque electoral map.
For the Republicans to win next time I don't think inspiring the base is going to be enough. They're going to have to win over the independent voters, particularly in suburbia, who voted for George W. Bush in 2004 but then supported Barack Obama this time.
The problem is that she may well have been part of the problem John McCain had with those voters. Here's her favorability in some key swing states with suburban independents:
| State | Palin Favorability |
| | 32/54 |
| | 31/54 |
| | 42/50 |
| | 34/50 |
| | 32/47 |
Her consistent unpopularity within that demographic across this quintet of relatively different states is striking. I'm sure the Republican base was very excited about Barry Goldwater too, and nominating Sarah Palin could generate a 1964-esque electoral map.
Hispanic Voters in North Carolina
I've had several people ask me about the impact of the Hispanic vote in North Carolina this election. My answer is that it is still not a huge factor but becoming more and more so by the year.
The North Carolina exit poll showed Hispanics as making up 3% of the electorate this year. That is up from just 1% in 2004. There were not enough Hispanic respondents to break down who their support went to, but Virginia might be a good place to look to get an idea and they supported Barack Obama 65-34 there. In that state their share of the vote increased from 3% in 2004 to 5% this year.
The emerging influence of Hispanic voters in the state could have a major impact on keeping the state 'purple' moving forward. Let's say that in 2016 the Democrats nominate a white candidate and black turnout goes back to a more normal 20% rather than the 22-23% it was this year. But the Hispanic share of the electorate increases another 2% in both 2012 and 2016 to the point where they make up 7% of the vote. Using the breakdown of how each racial group voted this year, with an electorate that is 70% white, 20% black, 7% Hispanic, and 3% other races Obama would still win by about half a point. That's an indication that the emerging Hispanic vote in the state will make it possible for Democrats to win here at the Presidential level even without historic black turnout.
This will be an important trend to track in North Carolina politics moving forward.
The North Carolina exit poll showed Hispanics as making up 3% of the electorate this year. That is up from just 1% in 2004. There were not enough Hispanic respondents to break down who their support went to, but Virginia might be a good place to look to get an idea and they supported Barack Obama 65-34 there. In that state their share of the vote increased from 3% in 2004 to 5% this year.
The emerging influence of Hispanic voters in the state could have a major impact on keeping the state 'purple' moving forward. Let's say that in 2016 the Democrats nominate a white candidate and black turnout goes back to a more normal 20% rather than the 22-23% it was this year. But the Hispanic share of the electorate increases another 2% in both 2012 and 2016 to the point where they make up 7% of the vote. Using the breakdown of how each racial group voted this year, with an electorate that is 70% white, 20% black, 7% Hispanic, and 3% other races Obama would still win by about half a point. That's an indication that the emerging Hispanic vote in the state will make it possible for Democrats to win here at the Presidential level even without historic black turnout.
This will be an important trend to track in North Carolina politics moving forward.
Thursday, November 13, 2008
PPP under attack
Mel Martinez and the Florida Republican Party are attacking PPP for pointing out that his approval rating is beyond poor.
If it seems like we've been here before it's because we have. When we showed Elizabeth Dole's approval in the low 40s around this time two years ago her people attacked us for our methodology, our clients, anything they could think of to try to deflect attention from her lacking popularity.
In case you missed it, Elizabeth Dole's not going to be a Senator anymore next year. We were right on the mark in pointing out her extreme vulnerability very early in the 2007-2008 election cycle, and her approval rating was much better than Mel Martinez's is right now. For instance, when we first tested Kay Hagan against Elizabeth Dole 16 months ago, Dole led 43-27. But Martinez is trailing almost every potential competitor we looked at him against.
Republicans in Florida better hope for a major turnaround in the national political climate- or a stronger GOP candidate to take Martinez out in the primary- if they want to have any hopes of keeping this seat in two years.
If it seems like we've been here before it's because we have. When we showed Elizabeth Dole's approval in the low 40s around this time two years ago her people attacked us for our methodology, our clients, anything they could think of to try to deflect attention from her lacking popularity.
In case you missed it, Elizabeth Dole's not going to be a Senator anymore next year. We were right on the mark in pointing out her extreme vulnerability very early in the 2007-2008 election cycle, and her approval rating was much better than Mel Martinez's is right now. For instance, when we first tested Kay Hagan against Elizabeth Dole 16 months ago, Dole led 43-27. But Martinez is trailing almost every potential competitor we looked at him against.
Republicans in Florida better hope for a major turnaround in the national political climate- or a stronger GOP candidate to take Martinez out in the primary- if they want to have any hopes of keeping this seat in two years.
Exit Polls and North Carolina
In September I put forth a theory that people identify their party affiliation differently to exit pollsters than they do in pre election polls, which is just one more reason that weighting for party id is not a good idea.
Here's my basic point: there are a lot of registered Democrats in North Carolina who vote Democratic for local offices, a fair number of state offices, but then vote Republican for President and sometimes Governor or Senate. When we poll them on a bunch of statewide offices and they're mostly choosing Democrats, they identify as Democrats on our polls. But when they're filling out an exit poll just about the top of the ticket stuff where they may have voted Republican, they're more likely to identify as independents or Republicans then, regardless of their registration status.
The North Carolina exit poll this year I think backs up my point. On our final poll, which was dead on, we found 49% of respondents identifying as Democrats, 38% as Republicans, and 13% as independents. The exit pollsters found 42% identifying as Democrats, 31% as Republicans, and almost twice as many, 27%, describing themselves as independents.
Here are some key differences between how groups within our poll stacked up and how groups within the exit poll did:
-We found Obama getting 81% of the Democratic vote, while the exit poll found him getting 90%.
-We found McCain getting 90% of the Republican vote, while the exit poll gave him 95%.
-We found Obama up 50-46 with independents. The exit poll found McCain winning them 60-39.
So to review, in the exit poll we have fewer Democrats and fewer Republicans both showing a higher degree of party unity than our pre election polls indicated and independents looking much more Republican.
What happened? I think a lot of the registered Democrats supporting McCain identified as independents on the exit poll. And probably some of the Republicans supporting Obama did too. But there are a lot more registered D's voting Republican for President than vice versa, hence the strong advantage for McCain among indies there even as our polls told a different story.
The bottom line? The folks identifying as independents on our polls were a completely different universe than the folks identifying as independents on the exit poll. And that's why using exit poll numbers as a baseline for weighting standard pre election polls isn't a good idea because the way people respond to each of those types of surveys is not necessarily the same.
Here's my basic point: there are a lot of registered Democrats in North Carolina who vote Democratic for local offices, a fair number of state offices, but then vote Republican for President and sometimes Governor or Senate. When we poll them on a bunch of statewide offices and they're mostly choosing Democrats, they identify as Democrats on our polls. But when they're filling out an exit poll just about the top of the ticket stuff where they may have voted Republican, they're more likely to identify as independents or Republicans then, regardless of their registration status.
The North Carolina exit poll this year I think backs up my point. On our final poll, which was dead on, we found 49% of respondents identifying as Democrats, 38% as Republicans, and 13% as independents. The exit pollsters found 42% identifying as Democrats, 31% as Republicans, and almost twice as many, 27%, describing themselves as independents.
Here are some key differences between how groups within our poll stacked up and how groups within the exit poll did:
-We found Obama getting 81% of the Democratic vote, while the exit poll found him getting 90%.
-We found McCain getting 90% of the Republican vote, while the exit poll gave him 95%.
-We found Obama up 50-46 with independents. The exit poll found McCain winning them 60-39.
So to review, in the exit poll we have fewer Democrats and fewer Republicans both showing a higher degree of party unity than our pre election polls indicated and independents looking much more Republican.
What happened? I think a lot of the registered Democrats supporting McCain identified as independents on the exit poll. And probably some of the Republicans supporting Obama did too. But there are a lot more registered D's voting Republican for President than vice versa, hence the strong advantage for McCain among indies there even as our polls told a different story.
The bottom line? The folks identifying as independents on our polls were a completely different universe than the folks identifying as independents on the exit poll. And that's why using exit poll numbers as a baseline for weighting standard pre election polls isn't a good idea because the way people respond to each of those types of surveys is not necessarily the same.
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Michigan Governor 2010
PPP conducted several polls pertaining to the 2010 race for Governor of Michigan over the summer. The numbers at this very early stage are more a function of name recognition than anything else but Dick DeVos did fare the strongest of any candidate, Democrat or Republican, in that polling. He led former Detroit mayor Dennis Archer 44-42 and Lieutenant Governor John Cherry 45-36.
With DeVos now out of the race today, how does the rest of the potential field stack up?
1) Dennis Archer. Archer led all three possible match ups except the one with DeVos, leading Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land 41-38, Attorney General Mike Cox 40-33, and Congresswoman Candice Miller 41-29.
2) Terri Lynn Land. She led John Cherry 40-34 and came the closest to Archer of the other Republican candidates. She's had two successful runs for statewide office and proven to be relatively non-controversial.
3) Mike Cox. Cox also led Cherry in a possible match up. His lead was 35-30. His deficit against Archer was slightly larger than Land's. Like the Secretary of State he's been elected statewide twice, although his margin of victory each time was narrower than hers and he has found himself in the middle of more controversy.
4) Candice Miller. She's been out of statewide office for almost seven years now and it seems that she may have lost a good bit of her former name recognition. She trailed Archer by the greatest margin of the potential GOP field and also had the smallest lead over Cherry (34-30).
5) John Cherry. Cherry is the only one of the potential candidates we tested who has never been elected to statewide office in his own right and as such probably is not as well known to your average Michigan voter at this point. He trailed in every match up we tested, but it's a long way until 2010.
The June poll, which tested Archer and Cherry against Cox and Miller, is here. The July poll, which tested the same pair of Democrats against Land and DeVos, is here.
With DeVos now out of the race today, how does the rest of the potential field stack up?
1) Dennis Archer. Archer led all three possible match ups except the one with DeVos, leading Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land 41-38, Attorney General Mike Cox 40-33, and Congresswoman Candice Miller 41-29.
2) Terri Lynn Land. She led John Cherry 40-34 and came the closest to Archer of the other Republican candidates. She's had two successful runs for statewide office and proven to be relatively non-controversial.
3) Mike Cox. Cox also led Cherry in a possible match up. His lead was 35-30. His deficit against Archer was slightly larger than Land's. Like the Secretary of State he's been elected statewide twice, although his margin of victory each time was narrower than hers and he has found himself in the middle of more controversy.
4) Candice Miller. She's been out of statewide office for almost seven years now and it seems that she may have lost a good bit of her former name recognition. She trailed Archer by the greatest margin of the potential GOP field and also had the smallest lead over Cherry (34-30).
5) John Cherry. Cherry is the only one of the potential candidates we tested who has never been elected to statewide office in his own right and as such probably is not as well known to your average Michigan voter at this point. He trailed in every match up we tested, but it's a long way until 2010.
The June poll, which tested Archer and Cherry against Cox and Miller, is here. The July poll, which tested the same pair of Democrats against Land and DeVos, is here.
Hagan and Dole's internal polls
Something unusual has happened in the post mortem to the election: both Elizabeth Dole and Kay Hagan's campaigns have made public where their internal polling stood before the whole 'Godless Americans' fiasco. Dole's campaign told the News&Observer they were down by 8 points. Hagan's pollster told Politico that they were up by 3-4 points.
I think Hagan's polling was more likely to be correct. We were in the field Saturday and Sunday the weekend before for a public poll and found Hagan up by 3, then in the field again Tuesday and Wednesday for a private poll that we tacked the Senate race onto and found Hagan up by 3 on that one as well. Dole had been tightening up the race a little bit as she put herself on camera more talking to the voters and reminding them why they liked her when she ran the first time six years ago.
Perhaps if she had realized several weeks earlier that it was her image she needed to fix and not Hagan's that she needed to try to destroy, Dole could have evened up the race without having to take the risk of the 'Godless Americans' ad. You can add bad polling to the list of everything else that was bad about Dole's campaign.
I think Hagan's polling was more likely to be correct. We were in the field Saturday and Sunday the weekend before for a public poll and found Hagan up by 3, then in the field again Tuesday and Wednesday for a private poll that we tacked the Senate race onto and found Hagan up by 3 on that one as well. Dole had been tightening up the race a little bit as she put herself on camera more talking to the voters and reminding them why they liked her when she ran the first time six years ago.
Perhaps if she had realized several weeks earlier that it was her image she needed to fix and not Hagan's that she needed to try to destroy, Dole could have evened up the race without having to take the risk of the 'Godless Americans' ad. You can add bad polling to the list of everything else that was bad about Dole's campaign.
Spring Intern
PPP will be hiring one paid intern for the spring. This is not a coffee pouring experience- our interns work on our day to day polling as well as writing and analyzing several of their own polls.
I expect this to be a competitive process. If you'd like to apply please e-mail (tomj at publicpolicypolling dot com) me a copy of your resume and a 250 word examination (a blog post, essentially) of something about the numbers that you thought was interesting about the election in North Carolina.
We'll be taking applications through next Friday, November 21st. We'll pick several folks to interview the first couple days of the next week and hopefully have an offer made by Thanksgiving.
We'll start the process for summer intern selection in February.
I expect this to be a competitive process. If you'd like to apply please e-mail (tomj at publicpolicypolling dot com) me a copy of your resume and a 250 word examination (a blog post, essentially) of something about the numbers that you thought was interesting about the election in North Carolina.
We'll be taking applications through next Friday, November 21st. We'll pick several folks to interview the first couple days of the next week and hopefully have an offer made by Thanksgiving.
We'll start the process for summer intern selection in February.
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Straight Ticket Voting pt. 2
A number of losing Republican candidates in last week's election are blaming their defeats on Democrats who voted a straight ticket ballot.
The reality is that Republican voters chose a straight ticket in almost the same proportion as Democratic voters.
There are 4,870,261 voters in North Carolina registered with one of the two major political parties. Of those 2,867,453 are registered Democrats, or 58.9%
In last week's election 2,128,983 voters cast a straight ticket either for the Democrats or Republicans (Libertarians are excluded from this analysis.) Of the major party straight ticket voters 1,264,076 were Democrats, or 59.4%.
So Democrats make up 58.9% of major party registrants and made up 59.4% of major party straight ticket voters. That paltry disparity is a lacking excuse for why Republicans lost major offices, particularly given that candidates in low information races like Steve Troxler and Cherie Berry were able to weather the tide.
The reality is that Republican voters chose a straight ticket in almost the same proportion as Democratic voters.
There are 4,870,261 voters in North Carolina registered with one of the two major political parties. Of those 2,867,453 are registered Democrats, or 58.9%
In last week's election 2,128,983 voters cast a straight ticket either for the Democrats or Republicans (Libertarians are excluded from this analysis.) Of the major party straight ticket voters 1,264,076 were Democrats, or 59.4%.
So Democrats make up 58.9% of major party registrants and made up 59.4% of major party straight ticket voters. That paltry disparity is a lacking excuse for why Republicans lost major offices, particularly given that candidates in low information races like Steve Troxler and Cherie Berry were able to weather the tide.
Straight Ticket Voters
A lot of Republicans seem to be using straight ticket voting as an 'excuse' for their losses in North Carolina, as if those votes are somehow less legitimate than other votes.
I completely disagree. If voters decide across the board that one party is better than the other, that's just as informed a decision as deciding from office to office which candidate you think is better.
To Pat McCrory and other GOP'ers complaining about this: can you please give me a list of the Democrats you voted for in partisan contests?
I also think it's hilarious McCrory claims that the straight ticket voting is 'something the polls didn't see.' I think every single poll released in the last two weeks of the campaign showed Bev Perdue with a slight lead, so if any polling didn't reflect that it must have been McCrory's own internal polling.
I wouldn't be shocked if that's the case, since McCrory campaign manager Richard Hudson claimed on the Under the Dome blog that a PPP poll showing a 22% black electorate was biased since African Americans were only going to make up 17% of the electorate. If the polling McCrory was getting was based on that assumption it's no wonder he had an unrealistic idea of where the election would end up.
One reason not getting much attention for Perdue's victory: there's no doubt she had a vastly superior team on her side.
I completely disagree. If voters decide across the board that one party is better than the other, that's just as informed a decision as deciding from office to office which candidate you think is better.
To Pat McCrory and other GOP'ers complaining about this: can you please give me a list of the Democrats you voted for in partisan contests?
I also think it's hilarious McCrory claims that the straight ticket voting is 'something the polls didn't see.' I think every single poll released in the last two weeks of the campaign showed Bev Perdue with a slight lead, so if any polling didn't reflect that it must have been McCrory's own internal polling.
I wouldn't be shocked if that's the case, since McCrory campaign manager Richard Hudson claimed on the Under the Dome blog that a PPP poll showing a 22% black electorate was biased since African Americans were only going to make up 17% of the electorate. If the polling McCrory was getting was based on that assumption it's no wonder he had an unrealistic idea of where the election would end up.
One reason not getting much attention for Perdue's victory: there's no doubt she had a vastly superior team on her side.
Matthews/Specter: an early look
Arlen Specter 40
Chris Matthews 27
A look at a potential 2010 match up for US Senate between MSNBC host Chris Matthews and long time Republican incumbent Arlen Specter brings good news for both candidates.
The good news for Specter:
-He's winning. It's always better to be winning than losing.
-30% of Democrats say they would support him in such a contest.
-Matthews lead him only 31-25 among black voters.
The good news for Matthews:
-People are at least open to the possibility of voting for him, hence Specter's standing well below 50%, usually not good news for an incumbent.
-There's an indication that his celebrity could help bring him some crossover support. Specter is carrying only 50% of the Republican vote (that could also be people who would like to see him taken out in the primary sitting on their hands.)
-Matthews has a double digit lead with voters under 30. His candidacy could result in young, Democratic leaning voters being more engaged in a midterm election than they usually are.
The bottom line?
Specter would certainly start out favored, but a Matthews candidacy is by no means a non starter. He would have a fighting chance with a strong campaign.
Full results here.
Chris Matthews 27
A look at a potential 2010 match up for US Senate between MSNBC host Chris Matthews and long time Republican incumbent Arlen Specter brings good news for both candidates.
The good news for Specter:
-He's winning. It's always better to be winning than losing.
-30% of Democrats say they would support him in such a contest.
-Matthews lead him only 31-25 among black voters.
The good news for Matthews:
-People are at least open to the possibility of voting for him, hence Specter's standing well below 50%, usually not good news for an incumbent.
-There's an indication that his celebrity could help bring him some crossover support. Specter is carrying only 50% of the Republican vote (that could also be people who would like to see him taken out in the primary sitting on their hands.)
-Matthews has a double digit lead with voters under 30. His candidacy could result in young, Democratic leaning voters being more engaged in a midterm election than they usually are.
The bottom line?
Specter would certainly start out favored, but a Matthews candidacy is by no means a non starter. He would have a fighting chance with a strong campaign.
Full results here.
Monday, November 10, 2008
The Counties where Obama did worse
There were six North Carolina counties where Barack Obama's performance was more than a point worse than John Kerry's in 2004: Cherokee, Clay, and Graham in the west, Camden, Columbus, and Richmond in the east.
Three of those I have a pretty easy explanation for: they didn't see the same campaign the rest of North Carolina did because they're in media markets in other states. Cherokee County is in the Chattanooga market, Clay County is in the Atlanta market, and Camden County is in the Norfolk market. Camden County probably still saw a lot of ads since Virginia was also a swing state, but Cherokee and Clay are likely to have seen far less of Obama's message than other places in the state.
The other ones I don't really know what to say. It's easy to chock it up to racism but Columbus and Richmond Counties each have black populations over 30% so it seems like increased turnout there should have resulted in an Obama improvement. Why would white voters in Columbus County be more likely to vote against Obama because of his race than those in Bladen County? Why would that be more of a problem in Richmond than in Montgomery? I don't know the answer.
The other thing these counties all have in common is that they're on the border. Was the Obama ground game weaker in those places?
Ultimately it doesn't matter but I'd be interested to know more about what happened in those places.
Three of those I have a pretty easy explanation for: they didn't see the same campaign the rest of North Carolina did because they're in media markets in other states. Cherokee County is in the Chattanooga market, Clay County is in the Atlanta market, and Camden County is in the Norfolk market. Camden County probably still saw a lot of ads since Virginia was also a swing state, but Cherokee and Clay are likely to have seen far less of Obama's message than other places in the state.
The other ones I don't really know what to say. It's easy to chock it up to racism but Columbus and Richmond Counties each have black populations over 30% so it seems like increased turnout there should have resulted in an Obama improvement. Why would white voters in Columbus County be more likely to vote against Obama because of his race than those in Bladen County? Why would that be more of a problem in Richmond than in Montgomery? I don't know the answer.
The other thing these counties all have in common is that they're on the border. Was the Obama ground game weaker in those places?
Ultimately it doesn't matter but I'd be interested to know more about what happened in those places.
Pat McCrory's Future
Pat McCrory had never lost an election in Charlotte- until Tuesday. While Bev Perdue's margin of victory in Mecklenburg County was pretty small, her victory in the city itself was much greater- about 10 percent.
The fact that McCrory couldn't even win the city he's Mayor of in his quest to be elected Governor has some interesting implications moving forward. One reason he's had such ease getting reelected as Mayor over and over again is that the Democrats have put forth weak opponents against him. That will not be the case if he chooses to seek another term in 2009 with popular At Large City Councilman Anthony Foxx already announced as a candidate and other strong Democrats potentially in the mix as well. He may have to fight if he wants to keep his current post.
What about another bid for Governor? McCrory won 14 out of 18 counties within the Charlotte tv market, but lost 56 of the other 82 across the state. It's unclear whether he really has that much appeal outside his home base. He didn't connect with rural voters, which meant that Bev Perdue was able to win a lot of counties where Barack Obama lost. Republicans may want to nominate someone who can fare better in every different part of the state.
Where does that leave him? I think McCrory's best shot for higher office is probably replacing Sue Myrick in Congress at some point. He did quite well in Gaston and Union Counties, and conceivably the Mecklenburg part of the 9th Congressional District as well. Democrats are not likely to be particularly competitive for that seat any time soon, meaning it could be McCrory's for the taking whenever it comes open.
The fact that McCrory couldn't even win the city he's Mayor of in his quest to be elected Governor has some interesting implications moving forward. One reason he's had such ease getting reelected as Mayor over and over again is that the Democrats have put forth weak opponents against him. That will not be the case if he chooses to seek another term in 2009 with popular At Large City Councilman Anthony Foxx already announced as a candidate and other strong Democrats potentially in the mix as well. He may have to fight if he wants to keep his current post.
What about another bid for Governor? McCrory won 14 out of 18 counties within the Charlotte tv market, but lost 56 of the other 82 across the state. It's unclear whether he really has that much appeal outside his home base. He didn't connect with rural voters, which meant that Bev Perdue was able to win a lot of counties where Barack Obama lost. Republicans may want to nominate someone who can fare better in every different part of the state.
Where does that leave him? I think McCrory's best shot for higher office is probably replacing Sue Myrick in Congress at some point. He did quite well in Gaston and Union Counties, and conceivably the Mecklenburg part of the 9th Congressional District as well. Democrats are not likely to be particularly competitive for that seat any time soon, meaning it could be McCrory's for the taking whenever it comes open.
What happened in Nevada?
I've had several people ask me why I think we and most pollsters significantly underestimated Barack Obama in Nevada.
It's actually a question with a pretty easy answer. We had whites at 70% of the electorate and McCain winning them by 10. The exit poll had them at 69% of the electorate and McCain winning them by 8. Not much of a disparity there. We had blacks at 8% of the electorate and Obama winning them by 90. The exit poll had blacks at 10% of the electorate and Obama winning them by 89. So Obama picked up a couple points there relative to what we had projected.
The real difference was with Hispanic voters though. We pegged their proportion of the electorate basically correct- 16%, as opposed to 15% in the exit poll. But we had Obama winning them only 61-36 when he actually won them 76-22. That caused us to underestimate him by about five points right there.
I'd say Hispanic voters are harder to poll, especially if you only poll in English, but we did a better job than most of projecting how dominant Obama's victories would be in the similar states of Colorado and New Mexico. So I'm really not sure what caused the problem. If anyone has any useful tips for the future in Nevada I'm open to hearing them.
It's actually a question with a pretty easy answer. We had whites at 70% of the electorate and McCain winning them by 10. The exit poll had them at 69% of the electorate and McCain winning them by 8. Not much of a disparity there. We had blacks at 8% of the electorate and Obama winning them by 90. The exit poll had blacks at 10% of the electorate and Obama winning them by 89. So Obama picked up a couple points there relative to what we had projected.
The real difference was with Hispanic voters though. We pegged their proportion of the electorate basically correct- 16%, as opposed to 15% in the exit poll. But we had Obama winning them only 61-36 when he actually won them 76-22. That caused us to underestimate him by about five points right there.
I'd say Hispanic voters are harder to poll, especially if you only poll in English, but we did a better job than most of projecting how dominant Obama's victories would be in the similar states of Colorado and New Mexico. So I'm really not sure what caused the problem. If anyone has any useful tips for the future in Nevada I'm open to hearing them.
Friday, November 7, 2008
Senate 2010: Reviewing PPP's Polls
With the Presidential election behind us the next big thing is the 2010 midterm elections. PPP did a fair amount of polling concerning that election over the course of the year in the states of Florida, Ohio, Missouri, and North Carolina. Here's a review of our findings:
Florida:
Public Policy Polling did three surveys over the summer looking at Mel Martinez's job approval rating and how some potential opponents would fare against him.
In June his approval rating was 23%, in July it was 24%, and in September it was 23%.
We found that in hypothetical 2010 matchups Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink would lead Martinez 37-31, Congressman Robert Wexler would be tied with him 31-31, former Senator Bill Graham would lead him 51-31, Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman-Schultz would lead him 38-37, Congressman Allen Boyd would lead him 37-33, and Congressman Ron Klein would lead him 37-33. Martinez is probably the most endangered incumbent in the country for 2010 and given his lack of popularity even with Republicans is ripe for a strong primary challenge.
Ohio:
PPP also took a look at Senator George Voinovich's approval three times over the summer. In June his approval was 31%, in July it was 31%, and in August it was 30%.
We found that in hypothetical 2010 matchups Congressman Tim Ryan would tie him 33-33, Voinovich would lead Congresswoman Betty Sutton 37-32, he would trail Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner 42-38, he would lead Columbus Mayor Mike Coleman 39-37, he would trail Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher 40-38, and he would lead Cleveland Mayor Frank Jackson 42-32.
Voinovich, if he doesn't choose to retire, will be right up there with Martinez as one of the GOP's most vulnerable incumbents.
Missouri:
Kit Bond is more popular than Voinovich and Martinez but our polling finds him somewhat vulnerable as well if the right person runs against him in 2010.
In July we found Bond's approval rating at 39%. In August we found it at 44%.
In hypothetical matchups we found Bond leading Secretary of State Robin Carnahan 44-42, Auditor Susan Montee 47-35, Congressman Russ Carnahan 46-43, and former Congressman Dick Gephardt 44-43.
As is often the case in Missouri politics the Democrats' best bet may be nominating a Carnahan, and with the newly reelected Secretary of State's term running through 2012 she would have nothing to lose by making a Senate run in 2010.
North Carolina:
Republican Senator Richard Burr of North Carolina has just a 27% approval rating, according to a PPP survey conducted in July.
It's not that the voters dislike Burr- there are slightly more who approve of the job he's doing than disapprove. But a remarkably high 46% of them are ambiguous toward him.
That fact makes Burr pretty vulnerable for reelection in two years. Incumbency is a huge advantage, but much less so when the voters don't even really know who you are. And a 46% 'not sure' rating for a US Senator shows he's not doing much to attract the voters' attention.
After seeing Kay Hagan knock Elizabeth Dole many of the folks who declined to run in 2008 will no doubt be chomping at the bit for a second chance in 2010. PPP will begin testing possible matchups for that race soon.
Also, look forward to a new PPP survey next week looking at the 2010 picture for US Senate in Pennsylvania.
Florida:
Public Policy Polling did three surveys over the summer looking at Mel Martinez's job approval rating and how some potential opponents would fare against him.
In June his approval rating was 23%, in July it was 24%, and in September it was 23%.
We found that in hypothetical 2010 matchups Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink would lead Martinez 37-31, Congressman Robert Wexler would be tied with him 31-31, former Senator Bill Graham would lead him 51-31, Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman-Schultz would lead him 38-37, Congressman Allen Boyd would lead him 37-33, and Congressman Ron Klein would lead him 37-33. Martinez is probably the most endangered incumbent in the country for 2010 and given his lack of popularity even with Republicans is ripe for a strong primary challenge.
Ohio:
PPP also took a look at Senator George Voinovich's approval three times over the summer. In June his approval was 31%, in July it was 31%, and in August it was 30%.
We found that in hypothetical 2010 matchups Congressman Tim Ryan would tie him 33-33, Voinovich would lead Congresswoman Betty Sutton 37-32, he would trail Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner 42-38, he would lead Columbus Mayor Mike Coleman 39-37, he would trail Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher 40-38, and he would lead Cleveland Mayor Frank Jackson 42-32.
Voinovich, if he doesn't choose to retire, will be right up there with Martinez as one of the GOP's most vulnerable incumbents.
Missouri:
Kit Bond is more popular than Voinovich and Martinez but our polling finds him somewhat vulnerable as well if the right person runs against him in 2010.
In July we found Bond's approval rating at 39%. In August we found it at 44%.
In hypothetical matchups we found Bond leading Secretary of State Robin Carnahan 44-42, Auditor Susan Montee 47-35, Congressman Russ Carnahan 46-43, and former Congressman Dick Gephardt 44-43.
As is often the case in Missouri politics the Democrats' best bet may be nominating a Carnahan, and with the newly reelected Secretary of State's term running through 2012 she would have nothing to lose by making a Senate run in 2010.
North Carolina:
Republican Senator Richard Burr of North Carolina has just a 27% approval rating, according to a PPP survey conducted in July.
It's not that the voters dislike Burr- there are slightly more who approve of the job he's doing than disapprove. But a remarkably high 46% of them are ambiguous toward him.
That fact makes Burr pretty vulnerable for reelection in two years. Incumbency is a huge advantage, but much less so when the voters don't even really know who you are. And a 46% 'not sure' rating for a US Senator shows he's not doing much to attract the voters' attention.
After seeing Kay Hagan knock Elizabeth Dole many of the folks who declined to run in 2008 will no doubt be chomping at the bit for a second chance in 2010. PPP will begin testing possible matchups for that race soon.
Also, look forward to a new PPP survey next week looking at the 2010 picture for US Senate in Pennsylvania.
Dole not loved at 'home'
Elizabeth Dole really wanted to convince folks she was Salisbury's home town girl, but it doesn't look like Rowan County voters bought it. Kay Hagan ran 9 points ahead of Barack Obama statewide, but in Rowan she ran even further ahead of him- 11 points. John McCain took the county 61-38 while Dole won it just 54-42.
By comparison Bev Perdue ran 28 points ahead of Obama in Craven County and Pat McCrory ran 25 points ahead of McCain in Mecklenburg County. Those folks were clearly well liked on their home bases, although Perdue's aggressive courting of Charlotte voters allowed her to win a surprising and important victory there.
By comparison Bev Perdue ran 28 points ahead of Obama in Craven County and Pat McCrory ran 25 points ahead of McCain in Mecklenburg County. Those folks were clearly well liked on their home bases, although Perdue's aggressive courting of Charlotte voters allowed her to win a surprising and important victory there.
Thursday, November 6, 2008
Impact of Godless Americans
Before writing any more, I want to make one thing clear: Elizabeth Dole did not lose because of her Godless Americans ad. She trailed in every single poll PPP conducted of her race from August on. But I do think the ad had something to do with her losing by as much as she did.
Here's the breakdown of what happened in the races for President, Senate, and Governor during early voting vs. the results among election day voters:
During early voting Kay Hagan ran only three points ahead of Bev Perdue and four points ahead of Barack Obama. But on election day itself she ran seven points ahead of Perdue and eleven points ahead of Obama.
If you want to quantify the negative impact 'Godless Americans' had on Dole, I think you have it right there. Most early voters had their ballots cast before the whole controversy played itself out, and there wasn't a huge gap between Hagan and the rest of the ticket. But those who voted on election day were able to evaluate Dole's ad and Hagan's response and decide how that was going to impact their votes, and for Hagan to have run so much further ahead of Obama and Perdue on Tuesday compared to the early voting period is an indication to me that a lot of independents, conservative leaning Democrats, and even some Republicans who might have voted for Dole before she ran those ads decided not to.
It may have just made the difference between losing by 3 or 5 and losing by 9 but there is no doubt that running that ad hurt her chances of reelection, and probably damaged her legacy in the process. Not the most graceful way to end a long career of public service.
Here's the breakdown of what happened in the races for President, Senate, and Governor during early voting vs. the results among election day voters:
| County | Early Voting | Election Day | Difference |
| President | Obama +9 | McCain +7 | R+16 |
| Senate | Hagan +13 | Hagan +4 | R+9 |
| Governor | Perdue +10 | McCrory +3 | R+13 |
During early voting Kay Hagan ran only three points ahead of Bev Perdue and four points ahead of Barack Obama. But on election day itself she ran seven points ahead of Perdue and eleven points ahead of Obama.
If you want to quantify the negative impact 'Godless Americans' had on Dole, I think you have it right there. Most early voters had their ballots cast before the whole controversy played itself out, and there wasn't a huge gap between Hagan and the rest of the ticket. But those who voted on election day were able to evaluate Dole's ad and Hagan's response and decide how that was going to impact their votes, and for Hagan to have run so much further ahead of Obama and Perdue on Tuesday compared to the early voting period is an indication to me that a lot of independents, conservative leaning Democrats, and even some Republicans who might have voted for Dole before she ran those ads decided not to.
It may have just made the difference between losing by 3 or 5 and losing by 9 but there is no doubt that running that ad hurt her chances of reelection, and probably damaged her legacy in the process. Not the most graceful way to end a long career of public service.
Financial Crisis and the Presidency
Someone asked me a good question: would Obama have won without the financial crisis?
I think so, although the magnitude of the victory might not have been as great.
We started polling Virginia and Colorado regularly in June. Obama never trailed in one of our polls in either of those places, even right after the Republican convention when McCain was getting such a strong bounce nationally. It was certainly close in those states but even in those few days where America seemed to be in love with Sarah Palin, Obama was holding on.
Those two may well have been Obama's firewalls regardless of what happened elsewhere, and would have ensured 286 electoral votes.
Obama was losing in Ohio and Florida at the time the financial crisis got really bad but that was right in the wake of the GOP convention and it's unclear whether McCain's bounce would have receded in those places or not. The only places Obama appears to have won that might not have been on the table if the economy hadn't gotten so bad were Indiana and North Carolina, but you can still argue that his ground game in those places would have made him very competitive either way.
I think so, although the magnitude of the victory might not have been as great.
We started polling Virginia and Colorado regularly in June. Obama never trailed in one of our polls in either of those places, even right after the Republican convention when McCain was getting such a strong bounce nationally. It was certainly close in those states but even in those few days where America seemed to be in love with Sarah Palin, Obama was holding on.
Those two may well have been Obama's firewalls regardless of what happened elsewhere, and would have ensured 286 electoral votes.
Obama was losing in Ohio and Florida at the time the financial crisis got really bad but that was right in the wake of the GOP convention and it's unclear whether McCain's bounce would have receded in those places or not. The only places Obama appears to have won that might not have been on the table if the economy hadn't gotten so bad were Indiana and North Carolina, but you can still argue that his ground game in those places would have made him very competitive either way.
Governor Perdue: How She Did It
In a year where 'everything changed' in North Carolina politics, one thing didn't. The Democrats retained control of the Governor's mansion thanks to the votes of people, particularly in the state's rural areas, who went Republican for President and Democratic for Governor.
Bev Perdue, although she did quite well in the state's urban areas and pulled off a remarkable win in Pat McCrory's Mecklenburg County, still ran a good deal behind Barack Obama in the state's two largest counties. A decent number of folks in those places were attracted to Pat McCrory's message about doing more for the cities and voted the Obama/McCrory ticket:
So if Obama won the state by about 10k votes, and Perdue ran about 135k votes behind him in the state's two largest counties, how did she outrun him by 150k votes statewide?
She won in a great number of places where Obama lost across the state. In western North Carolina Perdue won victories in Swain, Haywood, Madison, Yancey, and Alleghany Counties, all of which Obama lost. In the central part of the state she picked up wins where he didn't in Montgomery, Lee, Rockingham, and Person counties. And she really outran Obama in her native eastern North Carolina, taking Columbus, New Hanover, Duplin, Sampson, Onslow, Lenoir, Wayne, Jones, Craven, Pamlico, Beaufort, Tyrrell, Perquimans, Chowan, Greene, Franklin, Nash, and Dare Counties where he did not.
She did well in these places that voted Republican for President because she made herself out as a forceful advocate for rural areas and small towns, and had the record to back up her rhetoric. Her campaign also did a good job of casting doubt about whether a McCrory administration would be a good thing for folks off the 40/85 corridor, and he never adequately addressed those concerns.
The Yankee trash issue was a game changer in the Governor's race. Perdue's poll numbers weren't where they needed to be on her home base in early October. On our final two pre-trash ad polls Perdue led in the east by an average of six points. On the three polls we did after she started working that issue she led by an average of 16. Eastern North Carolina cast about 30% of the vote, so that ten point improvement in the stretch run of the campaign was worth three points statewide, or the equivalent of her margin of victory.
It was not inevitable that Bev Perdue would be elected Governor. The Republican Governors Association spent six million dollars on negative ads against Perdue, roughly a couple million more than the Alliance for North Carolina spent against McCrory. The imbalance was particularly great in September, and that allowed McCrory to take the lead for the first and only time in our polls on September 30th.
But campaigns that close well win. In both the primary and the general, the Perdue campaign lost the month two months before the election (March and September.) But she and her team did a remarkably good job in both April and October, and that's why she beat two tough opponents and took the Governor's Mansion.
Bev Perdue, although she did quite well in the state's urban areas and pulled off a remarkable win in Pat McCrory's Mecklenburg County, still ran a good deal behind Barack Obama in the state's two largest counties. A decent number of folks in those places were attracted to Pat McCrory's message about doing more for the cities and voted the Obama/McCrory ticket:
| County | Perdue | Obama | Difference |
| | +385 | +99k | Obama +99k |
| Wake | +28k | +64k | Obama +36k |
| Total | +28k | +163k | Obama +135k |
So if Obama won the state by about 10k votes, and Perdue ran about 135k votes behind him in the state's two largest counties, how did she outrun him by 150k votes statewide?
She won in a great number of places where Obama lost across the state. In western North Carolina Perdue won victories in Swain, Haywood, Madison, Yancey, and Alleghany Counties, all of which Obama lost. In the central part of the state she picked up wins where he didn't in Montgomery, Lee, Rockingham, and Person counties. And she really outran Obama in her native eastern North Carolina, taking Columbus, New Hanover, Duplin, Sampson, Onslow, Lenoir, Wayne, Jones, Craven, Pamlico, Beaufort, Tyrrell, Perquimans, Chowan, Greene, Franklin, Nash, and Dare Counties where he did not.
She did well in these places that voted Republican for President because she made herself out as a forceful advocate for rural areas and small towns, and had the record to back up her rhetoric. Her campaign also did a good job of casting doubt about whether a McCrory administration would be a good thing for folks off the 40/85 corridor, and he never adequately addressed those concerns.
The Yankee trash issue was a game changer in the Governor's race. Perdue's poll numbers weren't where they needed to be on her home base in early October. On our final two pre-trash ad polls Perdue led in the east by an average of six points. On the three polls we did after she started working that issue she led by an average of 16. Eastern North Carolina cast about 30% of the vote, so that ten point improvement in the stretch run of the campaign was worth three points statewide, or the equivalent of her margin of victory.
It was not inevitable that Bev Perdue would be elected Governor. The Republican Governors Association spent six million dollars on negative ads against Perdue, roughly a couple million more than the Alliance for North Carolina spent against McCrory. The imbalance was particularly great in September, and that allowed McCrory to take the lead for the first and only time in our polls on September 30th.
But campaigns that close well win. In both the primary and the general, the Perdue campaign lost the month two months before the election (March and September.) But she and her team did a remarkably good job in both April and October, and that's why she beat two tough opponents and took the Governor's Mansion.
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
PPP's 'Bias'
PPP is a Democratic company, no doubt. We do private polling for Democratic candidates and we were rooting hard for Obama. But that never had any impact on our polling results. I saw people on various GOP blogs always say they were going to add five points to the Republicans for any poll that we released, and as I said a couple of months ago, that's fine with me but if you let that shape your expectations you're going to be sorely disappointed on election day.
So how much of a lean did our polls have? Based on the current numbers we overestimated Obama by a whooping one eighth of a point across our 16 final week polls. And I expect Obama's margins to increase in Oregon and Colorado as more returns come in from Multnomah and Boulder Counties respectively, so our bias may go down to zero or even a one eighth of a point McCain bias if the Democratic lead increases by a couple points in each of those states in the final analysis.
Here's the data:
So how much of a lean did our polls have? Based on the current numbers we overestimated Obama by a whooping one eighth of a point across our 16 final week polls. And I expect Obama's margins to increase in Oregon and Colorado as more returns come in from Multnomah and Boulder Counties respectively, so our bias may go down to zero or even a one eighth of a point McCain bias if the Democratic lead increases by a couple points in each of those states in the final analysis.
Here's the data:
| State | Final PPP Poll | Current Results | PPP Bias |
| | Obama +4 | Obama +12 | R+8 |
| | Obama +8 | Obama +11 | R+3 |
| | Obama +13 | Obama +16 | R+3 |
| | Obama +2 | Obama +4 | R+2 |
| | Obama +15 | Obama +16 | R+1 |
| | Obama +1 | Obama +1 | None |
| | Obama +1 | Obama +1 | None |
| | Obama +2 | Obama +2 | None |
| | Tie | Tie | None |
| | McCain +13 | McCain +13 | None |
| | Obama +6 | Obama +5 | D+1 |
| | Obama +17 | Obama +15 | D+2 |
| | McCain +2 | McCain +5 | D+3 |
| | Obama +10 | Obama +7 | D+3 |
| | Obama +1 | McCain +3 | D+4 |
| | Obama +16 | Obama +10 | D+6 |
| Average | Obama +5.0625 | Obama +4.9375 | D+.125 |
How Obama won North Carolina
The biggest reason Barack Obama won North Carolina is obvious and fits the conventional wisdom: he racked up huge leads in the state's urban counties:
Shifts in the state's seven most populous counties composed 303,000 of the 436,000 votes Obama needed to make up relative to John Kerry's performance in the state. He did that not just by turning out a lot of new black voters, but also by significantly improving Democratic performance in the fast growing areas of suburbia on the outer edges of our largest counties. A lot of folks in those places, particularly independents, shifted from being Bush voters four years ago to now supporting Obama.
But the urban counties tell only part of the story. Obama won a narrow victory in Jackson County, deep in the heart of the Mountains, where George W. Bush won in 2004. He sure as heck didn't do that by bringing out the black vote in a county that's less than 2% African American.
He made significant in roads in eastern North Carolina, taking places likes Wilson, Pitt, and even tiny Hyde County that were all previously red. He won in those places not just by bringing out black voters who stayed home last time, but also by winning over a lot more white registered Democrats who often cross over in Presidential elections but voted on the economy over guns and gays this time around. The 2004 exit poll showed John Kerry winning 84% of the Democratic vote. This year Obama took 90%, and won 80% of white Democrats.
Even in places where he still got trounced Obama did a lot of loss cutting. For instance McCain won deep red Gaston County by 25 points. But George W. Bush won it by 36. Similar numbers hold true for Johnston County.
The bottom line is that Obama didn't win North Carolina by doing better than John Kerry with any one group or in any one place. He made significant gains across the board- urban, suburban, rural. He turned out a lot of new black voters but he also did much better with white voters than Kerry did, even in some pretty unexpected places.
Does his victory mean a permanent realignment in North Carolina politics? Yes and no. He could not have won without a strong performance with voters who might usually vote Republican but were disgusted with the way the country has been run over the last eight years and wanted a change. If prosperity returns, or the Democrats nominate northeastern liberals, those folks will be right back in the GOP column. At the same time there is no doubt that in migration to the state is fueling, if not a blue trend, at least a purple one. And once all these newly registered black voters have turned out once, they're more likely to do it again. I think it will be a very long time before a Presidential candidate of either party is able to win by double digits in the state. With this election North Carolina has entered the top tier of swing states.
| County | 2004 | 2008 | Shift |
| Buncombe | Bush +1k | Obama +17k | D +18k |
| | Bush +3k | Obama +22k | D +25k |
| | Kerry +40k | Obama +70k | D +30k |
| Forsyth | Bush +12k | Obama +17k | D +29k |
| | Kerry +2k | Obama +44k | D +42k |
| | Kerry +11k | Obama +99k | D +88k |
| Wake | Bush +7k | Obama +64k | D+ 71k |
| Total | Kerry +30k | Obama +333k | D+303k |
Shifts in the state's seven most populous counties composed 303,000 of the 436,000 votes Obama needed to make up relative to John Kerry's performance in the state. He did that not just by turning out a lot of new black voters, but also by significantly improving Democratic performance in the fast growing areas of suburbia on the outer edges of our largest counties. A lot of folks in those places, particularly independents, shifted from being Bush voters four years ago to now supporting Obama.
But the urban counties tell only part of the story. Obama won a narrow victory in Jackson County, deep in the heart of the Mountains, where George W. Bush won in 2004. He sure as heck didn't do that by bringing out the black vote in a county that's less than 2% African American.
He made significant in roads in eastern North Carolina, taking places likes Wilson, Pitt, and even tiny Hyde County that were all previously red. He won in those places not just by bringing out black voters who stayed home last time, but also by winning over a lot more white registered Democrats who often cross over in Presidential elections but voted on the economy over guns and gays this time around. The 2004 exit poll showed John Kerry winning 84% of the Democratic vote. This year Obama took 90%, and won 80% of white Democrats.
Even in places where he still got trounced Obama did a lot of loss cutting. For instance McCain won deep red Gaston County by 25 points. But George W. Bush won it by 36. Similar numbers hold true for Johnston County.
The bottom line is that Obama didn't win North Carolina by doing better than John Kerry with any one group or in any one place. He made significant gains across the board- urban, suburban, rural. He turned out a lot of new black voters but he also did much better with white voters than Kerry did, even in some pretty unexpected places.
Does his victory mean a permanent realignment in North Carolina politics? Yes and no. He could not have won without a strong performance with voters who might usually vote Republican but were disgusted with the way the country has been run over the last eight years and wanted a change. If prosperity returns, or the Democrats nominate northeastern liberals, those folks will be right back in the GOP column. At the same time there is no doubt that in migration to the state is fueling, if not a blue trend, at least a purple one. And once all these newly registered black voters have turned out once, they're more likely to do it again. I think it will be a very long time before a Presidential candidate of either party is able to win by double digits in the state. With this election North Carolina has entered the top tier of swing states.
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
Obama NC Victory Likely
Barack Obama is now down by 3,000 votes with Buncombe and Chatham Counties as the only ones that have not reported at all. We think Obama will win those counties by a combined total of roughly 15,000 votes. Unless there is something strange about the precincts yet to report in the few partially reported counties Obama will take NC by less than a point.
Update: Although the totals are not yet being included in the official results with the Board of Elections, Barack Obama won Buncombe County by 17,000 votes according to the county's website. That should give Obama the victory in North Carolina unless something funny happens in the few remaining returns from Mecklenburg, Cumberland, Wilson, or Warren Counties.
Update: Although the totals are not yet being included in the official results with the Board of Elections, Barack Obama won Buncombe County by 17,000 votes according to the county's website. That should give Obama the victory in North Carolina unless something funny happens in the few remaining returns from Mecklenburg, Cumberland, Wilson, or Warren Counties.
9 Counties
There are now just 6 counties for which there are not yet any numbers in North Carolina. Here is how they voted in 2004.
-Buncombe (Tie)
-Chatham (Tie)
-Wilson (Bush +8)
-Franklin (Bush +11)
-Vance (Kerry +12)
-Warren (Kerry +30)
Guessing Obama will pick up roughly 10 points in each of these counties relative to John Kerry, we think Obama will win Buncombe by at least 10 points, picking up 10-12,000 votes there. We think he'll win Chatham by a similar margin, picking up about 3,000 votes there. We think Wilson will basically be a tie. We think Franklin may be a slight McCain advantage, worth 1,000 votes. We expect Vance and Warren to be heavily Obama worth about 4,000 votes.
Thus we expect Senator Obama overall to pick up about 15,000 votes in those counties. With his current 10k deficit that would put him in the lead, but again, we don't know what parts of those nine counties that have partially reported are still outstanding and what their predisposition will be.
-Buncombe (Tie)
-Chatham (Tie)
-Wilson (Bush +8)
-Franklin (Bush +11)
-Vance (Kerry +12)
-Warren (Kerry +30)
Guessing Obama will pick up roughly 10 points in each of these counties relative to John Kerry, we think Obama will win Buncombe by at least 10 points, picking up 10-12,000 votes there. We think he'll win Chatham by a similar margin, picking up about 3,000 votes there. We think Wilson will basically be a tie. We think Franklin may be a slight McCain advantage, worth 1,000 votes. We expect Vance and Warren to be heavily Obama worth about 4,000 votes.
Thus we expect Senator Obama overall to pick up about 15,000 votes in those counties. With his current 10k deficit that would put him in the lead, but again, we don't know what parts of those nine counties that have partially reported are still outstanding and what their predisposition will be.
Important to note in North Carolina
No numbers yet from Cumberland or Buncombe County. Those should both be good for Obama, and they're populous.
Hagan wins
Kay Hagan took the lead in North Carolina's Senate race in late August and never lost it. PPP's final nine polls showed her in the lead.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee helped her to take that lead with a remarkably disciplined and creative advertising campaign against Elizabeth Dole that hit on two key themes: tying Dole to George W. Bush's failed economic policies and making her out as an inattentive and ineffective advocate for North Carolina in the Senate.
Instead of fighting back with positive ads that portrayed herself in a positive light and tried to counteract the negative impressions being created of her with the electorate, Dole spent most of her money going after Hagan.
The problem with that strategy is that this election was never about Kay Hagan. It basically became an up or down referendum on Dole's performance as a Senator. The old men on the porch in the DSCC's ads asked the question 'what happened to the Liddy Dole we knew?' Dole's campaign never answered that sufficiently.
The bipartisan support Dole benefited from in her original campaign collapsed as well. PPP estimates Dole earned about 25% of the black vote in 2002. The North Carolina exit poll shows Kay Hagan winning those voters 93-1. Dole also earned upwards of 20% of the Democratic vote six years ago. This year the exit polls show that figure down to 6%, a figure that is not nearly good enough in a state with a significant 'D' identification advantage.
The final straw for Dole may have been the 'Godless Americans' ad. She had actually been tightening the race in PPP's tracking polls but much of her crossover support from Democrats fell apart in the days after she went on the air with that message, which may have hurt her perception as a moderate with swing voters.
That tactic might have worked in a North Carolina campaign 20 years ago. But the state has changed, and Kay Hagan is more 21st century North Carolina than Elizabeth Dole is.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee helped her to take that lead with a remarkably disciplined and creative advertising campaign against Elizabeth Dole that hit on two key themes: tying Dole to George W. Bush's failed economic policies and making her out as an inattentive and ineffective advocate for North Carolina in the Senate.
Instead of fighting back with positive ads that portrayed herself in a positive light and tried to counteract the negative impressions being created of her with the electorate, Dole spent most of her money going after Hagan.
The problem with that strategy is that this election was never about Kay Hagan. It basically became an up or down referendum on Dole's performance as a Senator. The old men on the porch in the DSCC's ads asked the question 'what happened to the Liddy Dole we knew?' Dole's campaign never answered that sufficiently.
The bipartisan support Dole benefited from in her original campaign collapsed as well. PPP estimates Dole earned about 25% of the black vote in 2002. The North Carolina exit poll shows Kay Hagan winning those voters 93-1. Dole also earned upwards of 20% of the Democratic vote six years ago. This year the exit polls show that figure down to 6%, a figure that is not nearly good enough in a state with a significant 'D' identification advantage.
The final straw for Dole may have been the 'Godless Americans' ad. She had actually been tightening the race in PPP's tracking polls but much of her crossover support from Democrats fell apart in the days after she went on the air with that message, which may have hurt her perception as a moderate with swing voters.
That tactic might have worked in a North Carolina campaign 20 years ago. But the state has changed, and Kay Hagan is more 21st century North Carolina than Elizabeth Dole is.
North Carolina Ballot Issues
So far 1,751,654 ballots have come in in North Carolina. 1,734,053 included votes for President. That means 1% appear to have been fouled up by the confusing ballot where a straight ticket does not include a vote for President.
I truly hope that doesn't end up somehow tipping the state one way or the other.
I truly hope that doesn't end up somehow tipping the state one way or the other.
Counties to Watch
There are ten counties in particular I'm going to be paying attention to as the numbers for President in North Carolina come in tonight: Chowan, Forsyth, Franklin, Haywood, Lenoir, Madison, Montgomery, Nash, New Hanover, and Sampson.
Why those? They're all ones that broke down almost exactly the same as the statewide vote for President in 2004 when Bush won by 12. So if these ones come in and Obama is winning them, even by a small amount, that's a pretty good omen for his overall prospects in the state.
They also represent the diversity of North Carolina. Although racking up huge gains in Wake and Mecklenburg Counties will certainly take Obama a long way he needs to improve on 2004 performance across the board to take the state, particularly in eastern North Carolina. Whether he's getting out enough new black voters and getting enough registered Democrats who often vote Republican for President in places like Chowan, Lenoir, Nash, and Sampson Counties to win is critical to his chances of winning North Carolina.
Places like Forsyth and New Hanover Counties have urban centers and rapidly expanding suburbia: Obama will have to increase turnout in the former and win over Bush voters in the latter to be successful.
And don't forget the Mountains: Obama is doing a lot better than recent Democratic nominees have done in the region, and if he can eke out a victory in places like Haywood and Madison Counties it's a good sign that he's cut his losses enough out there to make his wins in other parts of the state pay off.
Why those? They're all ones that broke down almost exactly the same as the statewide vote for President in 2004 when Bush won by 12. So if these ones come in and Obama is winning them, even by a small amount, that's a pretty good omen for his overall prospects in the state.
They also represent the diversity of North Carolina. Although racking up huge gains in Wake and Mecklenburg Counties will certainly take Obama a long way he needs to improve on 2004 performance across the board to take the state, particularly in eastern North Carolina. Whether he's getting out enough new black voters and getting enough registered Democrats who often vote Republican for President in places like Chowan, Lenoir, Nash, and Sampson Counties to win is critical to his chances of winning North Carolina.
Places like Forsyth and New Hanover Counties have urban centers and rapidly expanding suburbia: Obama will have to increase turnout in the former and win over Bush voters in the latter to be successful.
And don't forget the Mountains: Obama is doing a lot better than recent Democratic nominees have done in the region, and if he can eke out a victory in places like Haywood and Madison Counties it's a good sign that he's cut his losses enough out there to make his wins in other parts of the state pay off.
Campaign Songs
The last time a Democratic President was elected for the first time the campaign's song was Fleetwood Mac's 'Don't Stop Thinking About Tomorrow.'
In what I hope was an omen I heard a different Fleetwod Mac song this morning on the radio driving in: 'Landslide.'
Barack Obama led in 14 out of 16 of our final battleground polls. In eight of those states- Colorado, Minnesota, Oregon, Michigan, New Mexico, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Virginia- the lead was solid enough that I'm very comfortable he'll win. Those are also the states that pollster.com is very confident he will win, giving him a minimum of 291 electoral votes.
In six of the states we have Obama leading that advantage is only one or two points. If he really does win all those places he'll be at 378 electoral votes. The odds of that aren't necessarily great and obviously all those numbers were well within the margin of the error but it could happen.
And who knows...Georgia looked pretty close in our poll and Obama had a lead banked there. If he took that and North Dakota to get 396 electoral votes it would be a surprise but in this bizarre, long election cycle it probably wouldn't be the year's biggest surprise.
In what I hope was an omen I heard a different Fleetwod Mac song this morning on the radio driving in: 'Landslide.'
Barack Obama led in 14 out of 16 of our final battleground polls. In eight of those states- Colorado, Minnesota, Oregon, Michigan, New Mexico, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Virginia- the lead was solid enough that I'm very comfortable he'll win. Those are also the states that pollster.com is very confident he will win, giving him a minimum of 291 electoral votes.
In six of the states we have Obama leading that advantage is only one or two points. If he really does win all those places he'll be at 378 electoral votes. The odds of that aren't necessarily great and obviously all those numbers were well within the margin of the error but it could happen.
And who knows...Georgia looked pretty close in our poll and Obama had a lead banked there. If he took that and North Dakota to get 396 electoral votes it would be a surprise but in this bizarre, long election cycle it probably wouldn't be the year's biggest surprise.
Monday, November 3, 2008
In Review
I remember some pundit a couple months ago, maybe right after the GOP convention, saying that Barack Obama had failed in his goal of expanding the map.
Let's review:
-Up 1 in Montana
-Up 1 in North Carolina
-Up 1 in Indiana
-Up 1 in Missouri
-Up 4 in Nevada
-Up 6 in Virginia
-Up 10 in Colorado
-Up 17 in New Mexico
-Only down 2 in Georgia
Does that remind you of any Democratic map you've ever seen?
Would you have thought it possible four years ago at this time? Would you even have necessarily thought it possible four months ago at this time?
The map is so freaking expanded there's a fair chance it will blow up into a landslide tomorrow.
Either way tomorrow's going to be one of the finest days in the history of our country, and we're happy to have had the opportunity to chronicle all of it by the numbers for you over the last year-
Tom
Let's review:
-Up 1 in Montana
-Up 1 in North Carolina
-Up 1 in Indiana
-Up 1 in Missouri
-Up 4 in Nevada
-Up 6 in Virginia
-Up 10 in Colorado
-Up 17 in New Mexico
-Only down 2 in Georgia
Does that remind you of any Democratic map you've ever seen?
Would you have thought it possible four years ago at this time? Would you even have necessarily thought it possible four months ago at this time?
The map is so freaking expanded there's a fair chance it will blow up into a landslide tomorrow.
Either way tomorrow's going to be one of the finest days in the history of our country, and we're happy to have had the opportunity to chronicle all of it by the numbers for you over the last year-
Tom
Nevada Results
Barack Obama 51
John McCain 47
It appears Barack Obama is set to win at least a trio of Mountain West states that went Republican in 2004. Along with Colorado and New Mexico he can probably add Nevada to the list.
In fact you can almost put Obama's likely Nevada victory in past tense. 71% of the state's likely voters say they have already cast their ballots and with those folks Obama has a much broader 57-43 lead. McCain's bringing the race to within four points is predicated on winning election day voters by a margin of 57-38.
Obama is not doing great with white voters in the state. He trails 54-44. But his dominating leads with Hispanics (61-36) and African Americans (94-4) propel his overall lead.
He's up 53-40 with independents and has a 56-41 edge with those voters under 30.
Full results here.
John McCain 47
It appears Barack Obama is set to win at least a trio of Mountain West states that went Republican in 2004. Along with Colorado and New Mexico he can probably add Nevada to the list.
In fact you can almost put Obama's likely Nevada victory in past tense. 71% of the state's likely voters say they have already cast their ballots and with those folks Obama has a much broader 57-43 lead. McCain's bringing the race to within four points is predicated on winning election day voters by a margin of 57-38.
Obama is not doing great with white voters in the state. He trails 54-44. But his dominating leads with Hispanics (61-36) and African Americans (94-4) propel his overall lead.
He's up 53-40 with independents and has a 56-41 edge with those voters under 30.
Full results here.
Indiana State Offices
Mitch Daniels is going to be reelected Governor in a walk. He leads 60-37, an even greater margin than he showed in PPP's last poll of the state.
The races for Attorney General and Superintendent are extremely close. Linda Pence and Greg Zoeller are tied at 44 for AG. Republican Tony Bennett has a small lead over Richard Wood, 43-40, with a large number of voters still undecided.
Full results here.
The races for Attorney General and Superintendent are extremely close. Linda Pence and Greg Zoeller are tied at 44 for AG. Republican Tony Bennett has a small lead over Richard Wood, 43-40, with a large number of voters still undecided.
Full results here.
Indiana Results
Barack Obama 49
John McCain 48
Buoyed by a strong 54-37 edge with independent voters, Barack Obama has a small lead in Indiana.
Like in many states Obama is going into election day with a strong advantage. A little under a quarter of likely voters have already cast their ballots and with those folks Obama has a 64-35 lead. John McCain is up 52-44 with those planning to vote on election day.
Obama is keeping McCain's lead with white voters in the state in single digits, a necessity given its small black population. McCain is up 53-44 with white voters and Obama probably needs to keep him there in order to pull the upset.
Obama's success is also contingent on strong support from voters under 30, with whom he has a 56-39 lead. He needs them to turn out if he's going to take the state.
Full results here.
John McCain 48
Buoyed by a strong 54-37 edge with independent voters, Barack Obama has a small lead in Indiana.
Like in many states Obama is going into election day with a strong advantage. A little under a quarter of likely voters have already cast their ballots and with those folks Obama has a 64-35 lead. John McCain is up 52-44 with those planning to vote on election day.
Obama is keeping McCain's lead with white voters in the state in single digits, a necessity given its small black population. McCain is up 53-44 with white voters and Obama probably needs to keep him there in order to pull the upset.
Obama's success is also contingent on strong support from voters under 30, with whom he has a 56-39 lead. He needs them to turn out if he's going to take the state.
Full results here.
Missouri State Offices
Jay Nixon has really pulled away in the contest to be Missouri's next Governor and now leads Republican challenger Kenny Hulshof 58-38. Nixon has a 31 point lead with independent voters.
Lieutenant Governor Peter Kinder and Secretary of State Robin Carnahan each look safe for reelection.
The races for Treasurer and Attorney General are going right down to the wire with the Democratic nominee in each race having a very small lead. Clint Zweifel is up 44-43 and Chris Koster is winning 46-43. The ultimate winners in those contests will probably end up having a lot more to do with John McCain and Barack Obama and their relative abilities to turn their supporters out than anything else.
Full results here.
Lieutenant Governor Peter Kinder and Secretary of State Robin Carnahan each look safe for reelection.
The races for Treasurer and Attorney General are going right down to the wire with the Democratic nominee in each race having a very small lead. Clint Zweifel is up 44-43 and Chris Koster is winning 46-43. The ultimate winners in those contests will probably end up having a lot more to do with John McCain and Barack Obama and their relative abilities to turn their supporters out than anything else.
Full results here.
Missouri Results
Barack Obama 49.4
John McCain 48.6
Barack Obama has a very small lead in Missouri that suffice it to say is within the poll's margin of error.
If he could keep his deficit among white voters in the state within single digits he would be in good shape to win it, but he currently trails 55-43 with that demographic. His 93-7 advantage among black voters evens that out, which means that the winner in Missouri could end up having a lot to do with the relative proportions of black and white voters within the electorate.
The candidates are knotted among independents voters, 48-48. McCain is pulling slightly more (91%) of his party's vote than Obama is (88%) but that's evened out by the slight Democratic identification edge in the state.
Obama has a dominant 61-35 lead with voters under 30 while trailing in every other age group. His ability to ensure those folks actually get out and cast their ballots may determine who takes Missouri.
Full results here.
John McCain 48.6
Barack Obama has a very small lead in Missouri that suffice it to say is within the poll's margin of error.
If he could keep his deficit among white voters in the state within single digits he would be in good shape to win it, but he currently trails 55-43 with that demographic. His 93-7 advantage among black voters evens that out, which means that the winner in Missouri could end up having a lot to do with the relative proportions of black and white voters within the electorate.
The candidates are knotted among independents voters, 48-48. McCain is pulling slightly more (91%) of his party's vote than Obama is (88%) but that's evened out by the slight Democratic identification edge in the state.
Obama has a dominant 61-35 lead with voters under 30 while trailing in every other age group. His ability to ensure those folks actually get out and cast their ballots may determine who takes Missouri.
Full results here.
Georgia Results
John McCain 50
Barack Obama 48
Bob Barr 2
Barack Obama still has a decent chance of pulling off the upset in Georgia. He's leading 52-47 among voters who have already cast their ballots, which accounts for 57% of those surveyed. John McCain is up 54-43 with those planning to vote tomorrow.
The demographics of early voters and of those who are election day voters are quite different. 35% of early voters were black, 56% were women, and when it comes to party identification 46% describe themselves as Democrats while 40% are Republicans.
For likely voters who have not yet gone to the polls just 24% are black, 42% are Republicans compared to 38% who are Democrats, and a slight majority are men.
Obama probably needs to crack 30% of the white vote to take Georgia and right now he is falling just short, trailing McCain 70-28 within that demographic. Obama's solid lead with young voters is being offset by McCain's overwhelming lead with voters over 65.
In the state's US Senate race a runoff still seems like the most likely outcome with Saxby Chambliss receiving 48% to Jim Martin's 46%. Libertarian Allen Buckley is the guy who could cause the campaign to continue another month, receiving 4% of the vote. Chambliss would have to win over the late deciders overwhelmingly to get a majority tomorrow.
Full results here.
Barack Obama 48
Bob Barr 2
Barack Obama still has a decent chance of pulling off the upset in Georgia. He's leading 52-47 among voters who have already cast their ballots, which accounts for 57% of those surveyed. John McCain is up 54-43 with those planning to vote tomorrow.
The demographics of early voters and of those who are election day voters are quite different. 35% of early voters were black, 56% were women, and when it comes to party identification 46% describe themselves as Democrats while 40% are Republicans.
For likely voters who have not yet gone to the polls just 24% are black, 42% are Republicans compared to 38% who are Democrats, and a slight majority are men.
Obama probably needs to crack 30% of the white vote to take Georgia and right now he is falling just short, trailing McCain 70-28 within that demographic. Obama's solid lead with young voters is being offset by McCain's overwhelming lead with voters over 65.
In the state's US Senate race a runoff still seems like the most likely outcome with Saxby Chambliss receiving 48% to Jim Martin's 46%. Libertarian Allen Buckley is the guy who could cause the campaign to continue another month, receiving 4% of the vote. Chambliss would have to win over the late deciders overwhelmingly to get a majority tomorrow.
Full results here.
Florida Results
Barack Obama 50
John McCain 48
Over half of those who plan to vote in Florida this fall already have, and among those voters Barack Obama has built up a a 56-43 lead. That leaves John McCain playing catch up if he hopes to take the state on election day- he has a 54-42 lead among those folks planning to vote Tuesday, but the big question is whether they will really turn out.
Obama's lead in the state comes on the strength of a 57-36 lead with independent voters and a 55-42 advantage with Hispanics. He's also got his customary strong support from black (93-6) and young (63-34) voters.
He is not particularly competitive with the white vote, where McCain has a 57-41 lead, but his strong minority support looks like it might be enough to put him over the top in Florida.
Full results here.
John McCain 48
Over half of those who plan to vote in Florida this fall already have, and among those voters Barack Obama has built up a a 56-43 lead. That leaves John McCain playing catch up if he hopes to take the state on election day- he has a 54-42 lead among those folks planning to vote Tuesday, but the big question is whether they will really turn out.
Obama's lead in the state comes on the strength of a 57-36 lead with independent voters and a 55-42 advantage with Hispanics. He's also got his customary strong support from black (93-6) and young (63-34) voters.
He is not particularly competitive with the white vote, where McCain has a 57-41 lead, but his strong minority support looks like it might be enough to put him over the top in Florida.
Full results here.
Montana State Offices
Montana's Governor, Senator, and Congressman are all headed to easy reelections. Governor Brian Schweitzer leads 62-36, Senator Max Baucus is up 71-26, and Congressman Denny Rehberg leads 60-35.
If you're interested in the results for other statewide offices, click this link.
If you're interested in the results for other statewide offices, click this link.
Montana Results
Barack Obama 48
John McCain 47
Ron Paul 4
It looks like the race for President in Montana is a complete tossup. What's less clear is that it can be attributed to Ron Paul's spot on the ballot in the state.
Paul is actually pulling equally from Democrats and Republicans- getting 2% of each of their votes- while polling at 9% with independents.
Obama has the slightest of leads based on his standing with two key groups: independents and voters under 30. With the former he has a 48-40 advantage. With the latter he is up 54-41.
Like in many states, the contest in Montana is going to come down to election day turnout. Among those who say they have already cast their ballots in the state, Barack Obama has built up a 61-35 lead. Among those planning to vote on Tuesday John McCain has a 53-40 advantage. The extent to which those folks follow through is likely to be the deciding factor in who takes the state.
Full results here.
John McCain 47
Ron Paul 4
It looks like the race for President in Montana is a complete tossup. What's less clear is that it can be attributed to Ron Paul's spot on the ballot in the state.
Paul is actually pulling equally from Democrats and Republicans- getting 2% of each of their votes- while polling at 9% with independents.
Obama has the slightest of leads based on his standing with two key groups: independents and voters under 30. With the former he has a 48-40 advantage. With the latter he is up 54-41.
Like in many states, the contest in Montana is going to come down to election day turnout. Among those who say they have already cast their ballots in the state, Barack Obama has built up a 61-35 lead. Among those planning to vote on Tuesday John McCain has a 53-40 advantage. The extent to which those folks follow through is likely to be the deciding factor in who takes the state.
Full results here.
North Carolina State Offices
Governor:
Bev Perdue 49
Pat McCrory 48
Michael Munger 2
The race for Governor in North Carolina is about as close as it could be. Neither candidate has had a lead of more than four points in the last two months of PPP's polling.
Undecided whites seem to be moving toward McCrory, undecided blacks seem to be moving toward Perdue. Last week McCrory had a 54-37 advantage with white voters, now it's 59-37. Perdue's lead with African Americans is up to 90-9 after it was 83-9 last week.
Perdue is dominating in eastern North Carolina, McCrory is dominating in Charlotte, and the candidates are very evenly matched in the rest of the state. This race appears to be close enough that there may not be a clear winner Tuesday night.
Lieutenant Governor:
Walter Dalton (D) 49
Robert Pittenger (R) 41
Phil Rhodes (L) 7
Although it is not clear that Bev Perdue will be moving up to the Governor's Mansion, it does seem evident that her party will keep her current office.
Insurance Commissioner:
Wayne Goodwin (D) 47
John Odom (R) 41
Mark McMains (L) 6
The Democrats look likely to keep this open seat as well.
Auditor:
Beth Wood (D) 48
Leslie Merritt (R) 46
This will probably be the closest statewide down ballot race on election night.
Agriculture Commissioner:
Steve Troxler (R) 51
Ronnie Ansley (D) 43
Labor Commissioner:
Cherie Berry (R) 51
Mary Fant Donnan (D) 44
There may be at least a couple bright spots for the Republican Tuesday night.
Full results here
Bev Perdue 49
Pat McCrory 48
Michael Munger 2
The race for Governor in North Carolina is about as close as it could be. Neither candidate has had a lead of more than four points in the last two months of PPP's polling.
Undecided whites seem to be moving toward McCrory, undecided blacks seem to be moving toward Perdue. Last week McCrory had a 54-37 advantage with white voters, now it's 59-37. Perdue's lead with African Americans is up to 90-9 after it was 83-9 last week.
Perdue is dominating in eastern North Carolina, McCrory is dominating in Charlotte, and the candidates are very evenly matched in the rest of the state. This race appears to be close enough that there may not be a clear winner Tuesday night.
Lieutenant Governor:
Walter Dalton (D) 49
Robert Pittenger (R) 41
Phil Rhodes (L) 7
Although it is not clear that Bev Perdue will be moving up to the Governor's Mansion, it does seem evident that her party will keep her current office.
Insurance Commissioner:
Wayne Goodwin (D) 47
John Odom (R) 41
Mark McMains (L) 6
The Democrats look likely to keep this open seat as well.
Auditor:
Beth Wood (D) 48
Leslie Merritt (R) 46
This will probably be the closest statewide down ballot race on election night.
Agriculture Commissioner:
Steve Troxler (R) 51
Ronnie Ansley (D) 43
Labor Commissioner:
Cherie Berry (R) 51
Mary Fant Donnan (D) 44
There may be at least a couple bright spots for the Republican Tuesday night.
Full results here
North Carolina Senate
Kay Hagan 51
Elizabeth Dole 44
Christopher Cole 3
Elizabeth Dole's 'Godless Americans' ad has clearly blown up in her face, as Kay Hagan has now expanded her lead to seven points.
The ad may have helped Hagan to get Democrats unified around her, as that's where most of the movement in the last week has come. Where Hagan led only 76-18 within her party a week ago, those numbers have now improved to 83-14. The excess nastiness of the ad may have lost Dole any reputation she might have had as a moderate or bipartisan type, causing her to lose a decent portion of her crossover support.
Hagan is up 56-41 with those who have already voted. She first took the lead in PPP's polling of the race in late August and never lost it.
Full results here.
Elizabeth Dole 44
Christopher Cole 3
Elizabeth Dole's 'Godless Americans' ad has clearly blown up in her face, as Kay Hagan has now expanded her lead to seven points.
The ad may have helped Hagan to get Democrats unified around her, as that's where most of the movement in the last week has come. Where Hagan led only 76-18 within her party a week ago, those numbers have now improved to 83-14. The excess nastiness of the ad may have lost Dole any reputation she might have had as a moderate or bipartisan type, causing her to lose a decent portion of her crossover support.
Hagan is up 56-41 with those who have already voted. She first took the lead in PPP's polling of the race in late August and never lost it.
Full results here.
North Carolina Results
Barack Obama 50
John McCain 49
Bob Barr 1
Barack Obama's chances in North Carolina on Tuesday really could depend on the weather.
PPP projects that he racked up a lead of a little over 250,000 voters during early voting. He led 55-45 among those who said they had already voted in our poll, and a little over 2.5 million North Carolinians have already cast their ballots.
But among those planning to vote on election day John McCain leads 56-42. It is always better to have actual votes than hypothetical votes so there's no doubt Obama has the edge right now- the question is just whether enough of those McCain supporters really turn out to make up the gap.
Here is the demographic composition of folks planning to vote on election day itself:
-41% Democrats, 43% Republicans, 16% independents
-79% white, 17% black
-51% men, 49% women
Those numbers all bode more poorly for Democrats than the figures for folks who already voted.
It's going to be a dogfight. We could be headed for a recount.
Full results here.
John McCain 49
Bob Barr 1
Barack Obama's chances in North Carolina on Tuesday really could depend on the weather.
PPP projects that he racked up a lead of a little over 250,000 voters during early voting. He led 55-45 among those who said they had already voted in our poll, and a little over 2.5 million North Carolinians have already cast their ballots.
But among those planning to vote on election day John McCain leads 56-42. It is always better to have actual votes than hypothetical votes so there's no doubt Obama has the edge right now- the question is just whether enough of those McCain supporters really turn out to make up the gap.
Here is the demographic composition of folks planning to vote on election day itself:
-41% Democrats, 43% Republicans, 16% independents
-79% white, 17% black
-51% men, 49% women
Those numbers all bode more poorly for Democrats than the figures for folks who already voted.
It's going to be a dogfight. We could be headed for a recount.
Full results here.
Sunday, November 2, 2008
Ohio Results
Barack Obama 50
John McCain 48
There is good news and bad news for Barack Obama in Ohio.
The bad news:
-His lead in the state is down from seven points in a PPP survey a week and a half ago to now just two.
-He is losing ground among white voters. Last week he trailed just 49-46. Now it's 55-43.
-Undecided independents seem to be moving in McCain's direction. Last week Obama was up 48-36 with that group, now it's 49-46.
The good news:
-Even though Obama's margin has gone down a good bit, his actual standing is pretty much the same as last week. There is little fundamental difference between 50% and 51%.
-He's banked a huge lead with early voters, who made up about 30% of the sample. He's up 65-34 with those folks. McCain's tightening the race to two points is predicated on his winning election day voters 54-44.
-Democrats don't need Ohio to win this year. In 2004 John Kerry's path to the White House pretty much had to go through Ohio. Obama would sure like to win the state, but it isn't a deal breaker for him the way it was for the Democrats last time.
In Ohio's race for Attorney General Democrat Richard Cordray leads 50-38.
Full results here.
John McCain 48
There is good news and bad news for Barack Obama in Ohio.
The bad news:
-His lead in the state is down from seven points in a PPP survey a week and a half ago to now just two.
-He is losing ground among white voters. Last week he trailed just 49-46. Now it's 55-43.
-Undecided independents seem to be moving in McCain's direction. Last week Obama was up 48-36 with that group, now it's 49-46.
The good news:
-Even though Obama's margin has gone down a good bit, his actual standing is pretty much the same as last week. There is little fundamental difference between 50% and 51%.
-He's banked a huge lead with early voters, who made up about 30% of the sample. He's up 65-34 with those folks. McCain's tightening the race to two points is predicated on his winning election day voters 54-44.
-Democrats don't need Ohio to win this year. In 2004 John Kerry's path to the White House pretty much had to go through Ohio. Obama would sure like to win the state, but it isn't a deal breaker for him the way it was for the Democrats last time.
In Ohio's race for Attorney General Democrat Richard Cordray leads 50-38.
Full results here.
Pennsylvania Results
Barack Obama 53
John McCain 45
Barack Obama's lead in the Keystone State has decreased from the consensus several weeks ago that he had a double digit advantage but he nevertheless is in great shape to take the state with an eight point lead and almost nobody undecided.
Obama has a commanding 56-38 lead with independent voters in the state. As he is in many swing states, Obama is actually carrying more Republican voters (16%) than John McCain is Democratic voters (15%), perhaps surprising in a state where Hillary Clinton won the primary in a walk.
Obama is trailing McCain only 50-48 among white voters. In a state with a black population over 10% that level of competitiveness is more than enough to give him a strong overall lead when you factor in his 90% + support from African American voters.
Obama is winning in every age demographic except senior citizens and a large amount of his lead is coming from a remarkable 68-30 performance with voters under 30.
In Pennsylvania down ballot races Republican Tom Corbett leads 52-35 for Attorney General, holding Democratic challenger John Morganelli to 59% even among voters within his own party. For Treasurer Democrat Rob McCord leads 46-38 and for Auditor General Democrat Jack Wagner leads 49-35.
Full results here.
John McCain 45
Barack Obama's lead in the Keystone State has decreased from the consensus several weeks ago that he had a double digit advantage but he nevertheless is in great shape to take the state with an eight point lead and almost nobody undecided.
Obama has a commanding 56-38 lead with independent voters in the state. As he is in many swing states, Obama is actually carrying more Republican voters (16%) than John McCain is Democratic voters (15%), perhaps surprising in a state where Hillary Clinton won the primary in a walk.
Obama is trailing McCain only 50-48 among white voters. In a state with a black population over 10% that level of competitiveness is more than enough to give him a strong overall lead when you factor in his 90% + support from African American voters.
Obama is winning in every age demographic except senior citizens and a large amount of his lead is coming from a remarkable 68-30 performance with voters under 30.
In Pennsylvania down ballot races Republican Tom Corbett leads 52-35 for Attorney General, holding Democratic challenger John Morganelli to 59% even among voters within his own party. For Treasurer Democrat Rob McCord leads 46-38 and for Auditor General Democrat Jack Wagner leads 49-35.
Full results here.
Virginia Results
Barack Obama 52
John McCain 46
Barack Obama led in all seven surveys PPP conducted in Virginia this year.
The race has tightened since last week when we found Obama leading 52-43 in the state. The undecideds may be moving toward John McCain but the Democratic nominee has not lost any ground and given that he's over 50% that's a good sign for his prospects there.
More important Obama is still holding the same 42% share of the white vote that he had last week. McCain has improved from 53 to 56% within that demographic. A PPP analysis conducted over the summer found that 39% of white voters would probably get the job done for Obama in Virginia and he has consistently exceeded that over the last six weeks.
Virginia is another key battleground where Obama is winning more Republican votes (13%) than McCain is Democratic votes (9%). Concerns about party unity with former supporters of Hillary Clinton seem to have been considerably overblown. Obama is also winning by a narrow 49-47 margin with independent voters.
In Virginia's US Senate race Democrat Mark Warner is set for an easy victory. He leads fellow former Governor Jim Gilmore 62-36, including a 67-28 lead with independents.
Full results here.
John McCain 46
Barack Obama led in all seven surveys PPP conducted in Virginia this year.
The race has tightened since last week when we found Obama leading 52-43 in the state. The undecideds may be moving toward John McCain but the Democratic nominee has not lost any ground and given that he's over 50% that's a good sign for his prospects there.
More important Obama is still holding the same 42% share of the white vote that he had last week. McCain has improved from 53 to 56% within that demographic. A PPP analysis conducted over the summer found that 39% of white voters would probably get the job done for Obama in Virginia and he has consistently exceeded that over the last six weeks.
Virginia is another key battleground where Obama is winning more Republican votes (13%) than McCain is Democratic votes (9%). Concerns about party unity with former supporters of Hillary Clinton seem to have been considerably overblown. Obama is also winning by a narrow 49-47 margin with independent voters.
In Virginia's US Senate race Democrat Mark Warner is set for an easy victory. He leads fellow former Governor Jim Gilmore 62-36, including a 67-28 lead with independents.
Full results here.
The PPP Electoral Map
Over the final week of the campaign PPP has already or is going to release polls in 16 battleground states: basically every remotely competitive one except for New Hampshire, North Dakota, and Arizona (can't do 'em all!)
The 16 states we're surveying account for 194 electoral votes. Assigning North Dakota and Arizona to John McCain and New Hampshire to Barack Obama we began the week with Obama at 204 electoral votes and John McCain at 140.
Based on the polls we released Thursday night we can pretty comfortably call Colorado, New Mexico, Michigan, Oregon, and Minnesota for Obama and West Virginia for McCain. So as we start rolling out polls tonight the PPP electoral college stands at 252 for Obama and 145 for McCain. We will keep you updated through the night as it changes.
I think the first poll out, still not for a good while, will be Virginia.
The 16 states we're surveying account for 194 electoral votes. Assigning North Dakota and Arizona to John McCain and New Hampshire to Barack Obama we began the week with Obama at 204 electoral votes and John McCain at 140.
Based on the polls we released Thursday night we can pretty comfortably call Colorado, New Mexico, Michigan, Oregon, and Minnesota for Obama and West Virginia for McCain. So as we start rolling out polls tonight the PPP electoral college stands at 252 for Obama and 145 for McCain. We will keep you updated through the night as it changes.
I think the first poll out, still not for a good while, will be Virginia.
Four years ago...
It is a beautiful, unseasonably warm day in central North Carolina.
It very much reminds me of the Sunday before the election four years ago, which was much the same way. I spent the day canvassing unaffiliated voters in Apex, one of Raleigh's fastest growing suburbs. In 2000 Apex's population was about 21,000. Now just eight years later it's about 32,000. When you hear about the changing demography of North Carolina, you're hearing about places like Apex.
I didn't have much luck with those suburban independents. They were definitely voting for Bush, pretty much across the board. I don't know what the exit polls said specifically for suburban independents but they showed Bush winning each of the individual groups in North Carolina by a good deal.
Whoever is canvassing those new subdivisions for the Democrats today is probably having a much more encouraging day than I did. Our latest poll found Barack Obama winning suburban independents in North Carolina by a 61-29 margin. That huge shift right there, even more than turnout from black people, is the kind of thing that will allow Obama to take North Carolina if indeed he does.
Those folks truly are independents. They liked Bush better than Kerry, they like Obama better than McCain. They're voting for the person rather than the party and they're voting Democratic this year because we nominated the right kind of candidate. If we stay away from nominating boring white guys those are the kinds of voters who can ensure we remain competitive in North Carolina for years to come (exciting white guys are fine.)
It very much reminds me of the Sunday before the election four years ago, which was much the same way. I spent the day canvassing unaffiliated voters in Apex, one of Raleigh's fastest growing suburbs. In 2000 Apex's population was about 21,000. Now just eight years later it's about 32,000. When you hear about the changing demography of North Carolina, you're hearing about places like Apex.
I didn't have much luck with those suburban independents. They were definitely voting for Bush, pretty much across the board. I don't know what the exit polls said specifically for suburban independents but they showed Bush winning each of the individual groups in North Carolina by a good deal.
Whoever is canvassing those new subdivisions for the Democrats today is probably having a much more encouraging day than I did. Our latest poll found Barack Obama winning suburban independents in North Carolina by a 61-29 margin. That huge shift right there, even more than turnout from black people, is the kind of thing that will allow Obama to take North Carolina if indeed he does.
Those folks truly are independents. They liked Bush better than Kerry, they like Obama better than McCain. They're voting for the person rather than the party and they're voting Democratic this year because we nominated the right kind of candidate. If we stay away from nominating boring white guys those are the kinds of voters who can ensure we remain competitive in North Carolina for years to come (exciting white guys are fine.)
Big Picture
Lots of people are leaving comments asking for predictions on this state or that state and I really don't want to get too specific while the polls are running, but here's the bottom line:
When we started running these polls Friday morning I was virtually certain Barack Obama would be elected President.
I still am.
To review we will have polls in North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, Montana, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Virginia in the next 24 hours and we'll start rolling them out late tonight and then on through the night. We're probably going to call it quits around 4 AM this time so anything not done by then will come out later in the morning but we'll try to get the ones people seem most apprehensive about like Pennsylvania and Virginia done earlier in the night.
When we started running these polls Friday morning I was virtually certain Barack Obama would be elected President.
I still am.
To review we will have polls in North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, Montana, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Virginia in the next 24 hours and we'll start rolling them out late tonight and then on through the night. We're probably going to call it quits around 4 AM this time so anything not done by then will come out later in the morning but we'll try to get the ones people seem most apprehensive about like Pennsylvania and Virginia done earlier in the night.
Saturday, November 1, 2008
Virginia Mason Dixon Poll
A commenter below asked about a new Mason Dixon poll showing Obama up 47-44 in Virginia but suggesting that the undecideds are a McCain leaning lot:
"Among undecided voters this year, 93 percent are white and 75 percent live outside Northern Virginia, where Obama has a substantial lead."
My first reaction is that it is highly unlikely that 9% of likely voters are still undecided. I think a lot of folks who still don't have their minds up just aren't going to be voting. There are probably some conscientious people who feel a civic obligation to vote and are genuinely torn but for the most part if you still don't have a dog in this fight I don't think you're going to turn out.
My second reaction is that this poll had a sample size of 625 people so you're generating a profile of undecideds based on like 57 respondents. That's a pretty darn high margin of error.
I'm having a hard time detecting any overall trends in our last round of polls. In some states it seems like Obama is doing better, in some a little worse, in others about the same as both our recent polls and those of other organizations.
We'll finish field work and start rolling them out late tonight.
"Among undecided voters this year, 93 percent are white and 75 percent live outside Northern Virginia, where Obama has a substantial lead."
My first reaction is that it is highly unlikely that 9% of likely voters are still undecided. I think a lot of folks who still don't have their minds up just aren't going to be voting. There are probably some conscientious people who feel a civic obligation to vote and are genuinely torn but for the most part if you still don't have a dog in this fight I don't think you're going to turn out.
My second reaction is that this poll had a sample size of 625 people so you're generating a profile of undecideds based on like 57 respondents. That's a pretty darn high margin of error.
I'm having a hard time detecting any overall trends in our last round of polls. In some states it seems like Obama is doing better, in some a little worse, in others about the same as both our recent polls and those of other organizations.
We'll finish field work and start rolling them out late tonight.
More Mediocre Dole Campaign
When I got home tonight I had a mailer about 'liberal Kay Hagan: giving illegal immigrants our jobs.'
I am a 25 year old registered Democrat in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. I thought the Republicans were supposed to be good at micro targeting?
I am a 25 year old registered Democrat in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. I thought the Republicans were supposed to be good at micro targeting?
NC Senate
It is pretty clear to me based on our polling this weekend that Kay Hagan will be headed to the US Senate unless something very bizarre happens in the next 72 hours. While numbers in the races for President and Governor are basically unchanged from last week there has been clear movement away from Elizabeth Dole, a sign that her 'Godless Americans' ad is blowing up in her face.
Dole has run one of the worst campaigns imaginable. Here are several examples:
-Doing a huge ad buy in June to bolster her numbers because her people got freaked out when polls right after the Democratic primary showed a tight race between her and Hagan. Of course the polls were going to tighten after Hagan had been on the air unchecked for a month...but the polls in May don't matter a lick. The best campaigns are ones that can keep their eye on the ball and make decisions based on the long haul instead of for instant gratification. How's that 14 point lead in June looking for you now Liddy?
-That money would have been much better spent in say, the month of August, when the DSCC was able to define Dole in the eyes of the electorate without any real push back from her campaign. The fact is the ads she ran in June were actually pretty darn good. They got out in front of the 'she's not from around here' argument by showing her across North Carolina, with real North Carolinians speaking positively about her work. She came across relatively likable in them.
But instead of rolling those out again immediately after she started getting attacked, the reaction seemed to be sitting around for a few weeks and then attacking back. But the reality is that attacking Kay Hagan was never going to be a particularly effective strategy for Dole because this race turned into a direct referendum on her. She needed to make people like her again, and she wasn't going to do it by attacking her opponent that no one knew much about.
The old men on the porch in the DSCC's ads asked a question that I think a lot of North Carolinians were wondering about: "what happened to the Liddy Dole I knew?" Dole never answered that question in this campaign.
I'll have more on the impact of the Godless Americans ad and how it shows her campaign team is out of touch with the changing face of North Carolina later.
Dole has run one of the worst campaigns imaginable. Here are several examples:
-Doing a huge ad buy in June to bolster her numbers because her people got freaked out when polls right after the Democratic primary showed a tight race between her and Hagan. Of course the polls were going to tighten after Hagan had been on the air unchecked for a month...but the polls in May don't matter a lick. The best campaigns are ones that can keep their eye on the ball and make decisions based on the long haul instead of for instant gratification. How's that 14 point lead in June looking for you now Liddy?
-That money would have been much better spent in say, the month of August, when the DSCC was able to define Dole in the eyes of the electorate without any real push back from her campaign. The fact is the ads she ran in June were actually pretty darn good. They got out in front of the 'she's not from around here' argument by showing her across North Carolina, with real North Carolinians speaking positively about her work. She came across relatively likable in them.
But instead of rolling those out again immediately after she started getting attacked, the reaction seemed to be sitting around for a few weeks and then attacking back. But the reality is that attacking Kay Hagan was never going to be a particularly effective strategy for Dole because this race turned into a direct referendum on her. She needed to make people like her again, and she wasn't going to do it by attacking her opponent that no one knew much about.
The old men on the porch in the DSCC's ads asked a question that I think a lot of North Carolinians were wondering about: "what happened to the Liddy Dole I knew?" Dole never answered that question in this campaign.
I'll have more on the impact of the Godless Americans ad and how it shows her campaign team is out of touch with the changing face of North Carolina later.
Chill Out
We've done enough interviews in Pennsylvania the last couple days to be pretty confident in saying Obama has nothing to worry about there.
And I know some will say, 'yeah but you screwed up the primary there.' But the mistake we made was not anything specific to Pennsylvania, we fixed it by the next set of primaries and we were number one on the Survey USA report cards for every primary we polled after it- Indiana, North Carolina, and Oregon.
And I know some will say, 'yeah but you screwed up the primary there.' But the mistake we made was not anything specific to Pennsylvania, we fixed it by the next set of primaries and we were number one on the Survey USA report cards for every primary we polled after it- Indiana, North Carolina, and Oregon.
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