Here are some of the things we've been talking about on Twitter today:
-Gallup has its party id numbers for the first half of 2009 out and finds North Carolina at D+12, slightly up from D+11 for 2008. Most of our polls so far this year have found something pretty similar to that.
-The NRCC released a list of 70 seats it's targeting for next year. That's probably more than they could ever realistically hope to win, which makes it that much more telling that Heath Shuler is not on the list. Like his politics or not, he's done a remarkable job of making a seat that had been Republican held for the previous 16 years safe.
-The most important poll numbers we'll be releasing this week are the new ones on the Virginia Governor's race tomorrow, but the ones people seem to be most interested in are the numbers relevant to 'birthers' in Virginia. Here are some sneak peeks:
*Among Virginia Republicans 41% think Barack Obama was not born in the United States, 32% think he was, and 27% are not sure.
*Among supporters of Bob McDonnell 36% think Obama was not born in the US, 33% think he was, and 31% are not sure.
*Obama's approval rating with people who think he was not born in the US is 12%, which is not surprising but seriously, since when is it ok for us to just say we think politicians we don't like aren't US citizens? I will happily stand up and say I am sure George W. Bush is a citizen of our country!
*Even among African Americans 12% think Obama was not born in the country and 27% aren't sure, showing the extent to which this misinformation is getting out.
We'll have the full 'birther' numbers on Wednesday.
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2009
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August
(78)
- Previewing Tomorrow's Polls
- Lincoln got caught in the middle
- Coming next week...
- Bennet's Primary Challenge
- Can Crist avoid the curse?
- Was Obama's approval ever that high?
- Young voters in North Carolina
- Anti-Incumbent Votes
- Melancon's Prospects
- Beebe in solid shape
- Odds and Ends
- Moderate Republicans/Conservative Democrats
- Health Care and Obama's Popularity
- Lincoln basically knotted up with GOP potentials
- Hagan and Burr's supporters on health care
- Senate 2010: Range of Possibilities
- Tough climate for Dems in Arkansas
- A theory on Colorado and wider...
- Arkansas Preview/Where should we poll?
- Class, Education, and the Republican Field
- From the Palin Mailbag
- Shifts in North Carolina
- McInnis, Beauprez have early primary leads
- GOP candidates with the non-birthers
- Polling on Michael Vick
- Who do the birthers love?
- Colorado with alternate party weighting
- Ritter in a tough position
- Some thoughts on Etheridge...
- Huckabee continues to come closest for 2012
- Odds and Ends
- Anonymous Senate Delegations
- Obama steady in Colorado
- A deeper look at the birthers
- Obama national approval steady
- Perdue struggling in Charlotte
- Colorado Senate Pretty Wide Open
- Colorado Preview
- Obama's approval drop in North Carolina
- Something you don't expect to see
- Tossup in Charlotte
- Sunday Odds and Ends
- Thoughts on Doyle
- Misinterpreting Obama's numbers
- Coming next week...
- Race and Ideology
- Mixed News for Burr
- Looking at Hagan
- Thoughts on Sabatogate
- Perdue's situation not dire, but she has work to do
- Who doesn't think Hawaii is a state?
- Seats becoming competitive
- More on Obama's shifts in support
- Perdue approval on the rise...not that it's saying...
- Odds and Ends
- Birthers very much a rural phenomenon
- What's the deal in Colorado?
- Birthers strong in NC too
- Plurality Disapproval for Obama in NC
- Updated 2009 Senate Approval Ratings
- 2010 shaping up well for outsiders
- And the finalists are...
- The 2010 Senate Picture and Black Turnout
- Media Poll Coverage Fail
- In defense of Deeds Country
- A big question on the budget
- Where should we poll next week?
- Wednesday's Odds and Ends
- Is Obama in a worse position than election day?
- Birthers in Virginia
- Obama in Virginia
- Our Senate Rankings...sort of
- Some hard data on comparative motivation
- McDonnell leads by 14
- Deeds' Problem
- Odds and Ends
- Burr's in better shape
- Thoughts on the national climate
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August
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Questions or Comments?
7 comments:
I know Democrats like to poke fun at the Birther phenomenon, but let's not forget that in 2007, one third of Democrats thought that Bush was complicit in the 9/11 attacks.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/current_events/bush_administration/22_believe_bush_knew_about_9_11_attacks_in_advance
Let's not be hypocritical in who we call conspiracy theorists, yes?
"but seriously, since when is it ok for us to just say we think politicians we don't like aren't US citizens? I will happily stand up and say I am sure George W. Bush is a citizen of our country!"
Aren't we editorializing now? Stick to polling Tom.
Barack Obama is a scumbag that most Republicans hate personally. That he has been successfully smeared by the birthers is none of our responsibility.
I am perfectly willing to take the benefits of the hard work by the birthers. At last Obama isn't a special needs kid.
Is Obama now a net negative in Virginia in terms of approval?
Tom,
Can you poll Florida next?
I'd like to see how close or not close the race is between Crist and Rubio.
And whether the birthers have been as successful in Florida as they have been in Virginia.
I'll take a guess and say that McDonnell is leading by 9, 51-42 in the poll.
How damaging would it be to Democrats if they lost both races this November by double-digits?
FR-IGHT-EN-ING!
Looking forward to the numbers from Virginia, very intriguing sneak peak! I'm actually most intrigued by the 12% of people who approve of Obama's performance while also believing he wasn't born in the US. Either they're VERY open minded, or just plain confused.
@ Anonymous
"I know Democrats like to poke fun at the Birther phenomenon, but let's not forget that in 2007, one third of Democrats thought that Bush was complicit in the 9/11 attacks."
That's not what that survey says. It asks if Bush knew ahead of time.
"Bin Laden Determined to strike within U.S." 'nuff said.
It's a fact he knew, his administration just didn't take the threat seriously becasue they were too busy fomenting faux outrage over missing W keys on government computers.
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