Monday, August 3, 2009

Odds and Ends

Here are some of the things we've been talking about on Twitter today:

-Gallup has its party id numbers for the first half of 2009 out and finds North Carolina at D+12, slightly up from D+11 for 2008. Most of our polls so far this year have found something pretty similar to that.

-The NRCC released a list of 70 seats it's targeting for next year. That's probably more than they could ever realistically hope to win, which makes it that much more telling that Heath Shuler is not on the list. Like his politics or not, he's done a remarkable job of making a seat that had been Republican held for the previous 16 years safe.

-The most important poll numbers we'll be releasing this week are the new ones on the Virginia Governor's race tomorrow, but the ones people seem to be most interested in are the numbers relevant to 'birthers' in Virginia. Here are some sneak peeks:

*Among Virginia Republicans 41% think Barack Obama was not born in the United States, 32% think he was, and 27% are not sure.

*Among supporters of Bob McDonnell 36% think Obama was not born in the US, 33% think he was, and 31% are not sure.

*Obama's approval rating with people who think he was not born in the US is 12%, which is not surprising but seriously, since when is it ok for us to just say we think politicians we don't like aren't US citizens? I will happily stand up and say I am sure George W. Bush is a citizen of our country!

*Even among African Americans 12% think Obama was not born in the country and 27% aren't sure, showing the extent to which this misinformation is getting out.

We'll have the full 'birther' numbers on Wednesday.

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

I know Democrats like to poke fun at the Birther phenomenon, but let's not forget that in 2007, one third of Democrats thought that Bush was complicit in the 9/11 attacks.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/current_events/bush_administration/22_believe_bush_knew_about_9_11_attacks_in_advance

Let's not be hypocritical in who we call conspiracy theorists, yes?

Anonymous said...

"but seriously, since when is it ok for us to just say we think politicians we don't like aren't US citizens? I will happily stand up and say I am sure George W. Bush is a citizen of our country!"

Aren't we editorializing now? Stick to polling Tom.

Barack Obama is a scumbag that most Republicans hate personally. That he has been successfully smeared by the birthers is none of our responsibility.

I am perfectly willing to take the benefits of the hard work by the birthers. At last Obama isn't a special needs kid.

Anonymous said...

Is Obama now a net negative in Virginia in terms of approval?

Anonymous said...

Tom,

Can you poll Florida next?

I'd like to see how close or not close the race is between Crist and Rubio.

And whether the birthers have been as successful in Florida as they have been in Virginia.

Brandon said...

I'll take a guess and say that McDonnell is leading by 9, 51-42 in the poll.

How damaging would it be to Democrats if they lost both races this November by double-digits?

Stephen Wong said...

FR-IGHT-EN-ING!

Looking forward to the numbers from Virginia, very intriguing sneak peak! I'm actually most intrigued by the 12% of people who approve of Obama's performance while also believing he wasn't born in the US. Either they're VERY open minded, or just plain confused.

Anonymous said...

@ Anonymous

"I know Democrats like to poke fun at the Birther phenomenon, but let's not forget that in 2007, one third of Democrats thought that Bush was complicit in the 9/11 attacks."

That's not what that survey says. It asks if Bush knew ahead of time.

"Bin Laden Determined to strike within U.S." 'nuff said.

It's a fact he knew, his administration just didn't take the threat seriously becasue they were too busy fomenting faux outrage over missing W keys on government computers.

 
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