Richard Burr's approval numbers this month are the worst they've been since PPP started tracking it with 41% of voters in the state disapproving of him to only 32% who think he's doing a good job. Burr nevertheless continues to lead his Democratic opponents by 6-8 points.
Burr's standing is largely a function of falling favor from independents, reflecting their general disgust with politicians of both parties. 43% of them give Burr poor marks to just 31% who feel he's doing a good job. Republicans continue to be a little lukewarm toward him as well, with 57% expressing approval.
Despite Burr's bad numbers he continues to be favored for reelection this fall, leading Elaine Marshall 43-37 and Cal Cunningham and Ken Lewis by 43-35 margins. In a finding that nicely summarizes the current strange state of politics, Burr holds a 20-27 point lead against each of his opponents with independent voters even though a plurality of them disapprove of him. They might not like Burr but they like the idea of another Democratic Senator even less.
With uncertainty about who the party's nominee will end up being, there continue to be a lot more undecided Democrats than Republicans. That suggests this race could tighten up further once the party is unified around a candidate.
Burr is clearly the most vulnerable Republican running for reelection this year, but Democratic incumbents went undefeated in their party's strong election years of 2006 and 2008 and the same could prove to be true for GOP Senators this year. But Burr's status does virtually ensure this race will draw a lot of national attention. So far the polling has closely mirrored what we saw for Elizabeth Dole in 2008. What we find once the nominees are set will give us a clearer idea of whether we're headed for a repeat performance in 2010.
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13 comments:
I just have a "gut feeling", that Burr is going to lose. Maybe, I am just too hopeful! I can say, that three of my closest Independent friends,are backing Cunningham, and they are far from liberal.
Which is it in the head-to-head against Marshall? In one of your crosstabs, it indicates Burr leads her 44-37, not 43-37.
That makes me feel that, I should not forget to vote in the primaries for Burr. Conservatives are fired up and I just don't see, how he will loose the election. Also, remember the big fact. African Americans are not going to be turning out in huge numbers like 2008
It's just not AA's that need to turn out and vote, it's also the new younger dem/ind white voter's, that are too smart for Burr's shady voting record, and know that NC deserves much better. This core group of voter's, are educated and tilt democratic in NC election cycles, and know that Burr sides with Wall Street, and voted 18 times to send OUR jobs, over seas! Burr has also been AGAINST extending unemployment benefits, AGAINST Health Care Reform, has sided with Big Bus, and been a party line vote. We need someone that will work for all of NC, not one that is a partisan hack ! I will back ANY Democrat over Burr. Be ready GOP, we are voting! I am casting my vote tomorrow, in the DEM Primary!
Dustin, independent white voters are at the Tea Parties. They will be turning out for Republicans by wide margins.
Christian Liberty,
Most of the people at the "Tea Party" events, are Republican, or "Republican Light". There are a lot of white independent voter's, that will still vote Dem. NC is different politically, than what most think. I see it absolutely absurd, why anyone , in their right mind, would vore for the GOP, when they were the ones that got us into this mess. It all comes down to racism, and hatred towards our current President. Anyone that has any intelligence, and know the fact's, will not vote Republican.
Dustin,
It was DEMOCRATS that got us into this mess. It was DEMOCRATS that raised taxes, burdened businesses with excessive regulations, pushed banks to lend to people who couldn't afford their loans, forced an income tax and central bank upon us, etc. It was DEMOCRATS who opposed auditing Fannie and Freddie when Republicans warned America that their finances were questionable.
The economic crisis is almost entirely the fault of Democrats. No rational person would vote Democrat.
All rational, intelligent people who have the facts can only come to two possible conclusions:
1. Republicans are far better than Democrats.
2. Republicans are too far to the left.
Burr is in a strong position for reelection.
http://www.johnlocke.org/acrobat/cjPrintEdition/cj-apr2010-web.pdf
see Andy Taylor's analysis on page 27
Christian Liberty,
In all do respect, I think it was due to De-regulation of wall street, that got us into this mess. That is a fact! There needs to be more regualtion, so we can assure that it will not happen again. When Bush took office, he was inherited with a Clinton surplus, and turned it into a HUGE deficit, thanks to two wars, and a medicare Rx plan, all which were not paid for. In addition, Bush and Burr, did nothing to stop all of our jobs going over seas, and leaving our great Country, to leave us at high unemployment rates currently. So please tell me how the democrats got us into this mess, when it was DE-REGUALTION, that caused it?? If it wasn't for Obama's stimulus bill, we would be at even higher unemployment rates. That is also a fact- Please refer to your HS Civics/Economics class.
The Wall Street deregulation (Gramm–Leach–Bliley) happened under Bill Clinton and George Bush passed more regulations than any President ever.
Dustin, it was TOO MUCH REGULATION that caused the economic collapse. It was too much regulation that FORCED banks to make loans to customers that cannot likely repay them. Government regulation CAUSED the economic collapse. Deregulation is the SOLUTION to this government-caused mess.
Opposing Obamacare means that Burr stood up for liberty and prosperity. Burr's vote against Obamacare was morally necessary. Democrats' votes for government takeover of healthcare were completely evil. Burr was absolutely right to vote against Obamacare.
And America will REWARD Republicans for opposing socialized medicine tyranny.
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