On our recent poll of the state Giannoulias was getting just 53% from people who reported having voted for Obama in 2008. In ten other key races we've looked at over the last four months the Democratic candidates were earning anywhere from 69-86% of the 2008 Obama vote. So not only is Giannoulias lagging the rest of his counterparts across the country, but he is doing so by a wide margin.
The candidate doing the best job of keeping Obama voters in the fold? Robin Carnahan in Missouri. That figure is further confirmation that she may be the best Democratic Senate recruit in the country, but the reality is that she may still lose because of Obama's flagging popularity in the state.
Obama is not a problem for Giannoulias- he is very clearly his own problem. But maybe Obama's overt support will help him bring up that 53% figure- even if he was on the low end of that 69-86% everyone else is getting it would be enough to put him back in the lead.
Here's the data on the percentage of the Obama vote the major Democratic Senate candidates we've polled on recently are getting:
| Democratic Candidate | State | % of Obama Vote |
| Robin Carnahan | | 86% |
| Michael Bennet | | 82% |
| Arlen Specter | | 77% |
| Harry Reid | | 75% |
| Paul Hodes | | 72% |
| Lee Fisher | | 72% |
| Dan Mongiardo | | 72% |
| Elaine Marshall | | 71% |
| Blanche Lincoln | | 70% |
| Kendrick Meek | | 69% |
| Alexi Giannoulias | | 53% |
4 comments:
Carnahan is still the dishonest hack who attempted to hide the evidence of ACORN's widespread voter fraud in Missouri. Anyone interested in honest elections would vote against Carnahan.
Carnahan whitewashes evidence of rampant voter fraud by ACORN.
http://www.timetoast.com/timelines/26074
If Democrats support such a dishonest hack as Carnahan, they will forfeit any claims to respectability.
Ah, yes, Christian Liberty, because without ACORN's help, Obama would surely have lost Missouri!
Oh, wait.
I really want to commend you for approving all of these comments by Republicans (including me). For a Democratic pollster, this blog is run in a way that makes it hard to tell that sometimes. Great work presented in a great fashion.
Oh, and also, I'll be candid. The Dems should beg Giannoulias to drop out in favor of Lisa Madigan. Why turn a safe seat into a lean-Republican race? It's absurd for Dems. So, uh, wait. Don't take my advice.
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