Wednesday, April 28, 2010

McCain's numbers plummet

John McCain has had a Charlie Crist like drop in his approval numbers over the last six months, seeing double digit declines in his popularity with Democrats, Republicans, and independents alike. As a result a majority of Arizona voters now disapprove of his job performance.

55% of voters disapprove of McCain to just 34% who give him good marks. When PPP polled Arizona in September he was at a positive 48/42 approval spread, so he's dropped 27 points on the margin since that time. McCain's biggest fall in popularity has come with Republicans as he's been more aggressively challenged from the right by J.D. Hayworth. Where 65% gave him good marks last fall now just 48% do, a 17 point decline. He's also gone down 13 points with independents (from 41% to 28%) and 11 points with Democrats (from 32% to 21%.)

McCain has tried to shed his 'maverick' image in order to survive the Republican primary and the numbers indicate that's working, but at the cost of diminished support from Democrats and independents. Just 28% of voters feel that McCain is an 'independent voice for Arizona' while 55% are more inclined to describe him as a 'partisan voice for national Republicans.'

Despite all that McCain still looks like a solid favorite against likely Democratic opponent Rodney Glassman, leading him 49-33. That does represent a significant tightening since September when McCain led 55-25, but doesn't put him in a particularly dire situation. The reason for the disconnect between McCain's approval rating and his support for reelection is that while only 48% of Republicans express approval of his job performance, 78% will still vote for him in a general election.

Democrats' only real shot at winning the seat then is if Hayworth can win the primary, and we find Glassman leading Hayworth 42-39 in such a scenario. Hayworth is extremely unpopular with only 23% of voters holding a favorable opinion of him to 50% with an unfavorable one. Democrats (6/68 favorability) predictably see him in a dim light but he doesn't do a whole lot better with independents (22/49). Republicans are evenly divided with 37% viewing him favorably and 37% unfavorably.

These numbers have very little to do with Glassman at this point, as 78% of voters have no opinion of him.

Democrats have a very good chance here if Hayworth manages to find a way to win the primary...what are the odds of that happening? We'll have those numbers tomorrow.

Full results here

10 comments:

evie said...

You didn't poll McCain v Hayworth? I'm wondering where that primary is at at this point.

Christian Liberty said...

Also from the PPP poll:

Those who do have an opinion of Glassman find him unfavorable by margins of 2 to 1. Glassman has net unfavorables with both men and women. Glassman also has net unfavorables with every single age group, especially 18-29 (those most likely to be Democrat or liberal or approving of Obama or approving of Obamacare). This same 18-29 age group prefers Hayworth over Glassman 43%-36% (even though they prefer Glassman to McCain).

A plurality of women and a majority of men OPPOSE Obamacare. Obamacare is opposed by a MAJORITY of those 30-45, 46-65, and over 65.

A plurality of women and a majority of men DISAPPROVE of Obama's job performance. A MAJORITY of those 30-45, 46-65, and over 65 DISAPPROVE of Obama's job performance.

Hayworth leads Glassman by 5 points among men.

McCain is seen as too lenient on immigration, further evidence that the new enforcement bill will be broadly popular. Hispanics are divided on whether McCain is too lenient or too tough on immigration, further refuting the myth that hispanics oppose immigration enforcement.

Hayworth is hardly any less favorable with hispanics (19-47) than he is with whites (24-51) or other (22-53), further refuting the myth that hispanics are turned off by immigration enforcement or by the GOP in general. Glassman is also net unfavorable among hispanics, whites, and others.

Hayworth does no worse against Glassman among hispanics (29-48) than does McCain (30-47).Where Hayworth (vs Glassman) underperforms McCain (vs Glassman) is with "white" and "other". Where Hayworth is the STRONGEST Republican candidate in the general election relative to McCain is among hispanics. (And remember, hispanics are almost evenly divided on whether McCain is TOO LENIENT on immigration or too strict. So again, no signs at all of any mythical hispanic backlash.)

This poll shows Hayworth just as likely as McCain to earn the hispanic vote... and strongly negates the myth of hispanics being opposed to supporting conservative Republicans running on enforcing immigration law.

Let's be honest. Enforcing immigration laws are in the best interests of ALL moral citizens and LEGAL immigrants, including Hispanics.

Anonymous said...

There is a new democratic u.s. senate candidate in the Arizona race - Randy Parraz.

Did you poll him? He just got in the race.

Anonymous said...

Rasmussen had Hayworth up 9. Usually your numbers are quite similar to Rasmussen, but in AZs both polls you are very different, suggesting 2 totally different samples. R2k had similar numbers to Rasmussen

Michel Marizco said...

Tom,
Help settle an argument here. Regarding your Arizona poll, you stated the 813 poll responders were voters or adults. Were they in fact registered voters or merely Arizona residents over the age of 18?

PNC said...

Did you poll Arizona's 2012 Republican Presidential primary yet?

ClarkT said...

These results are clear. If primary voters vote for Hayworth, a Democrat can win the general election. Reasonable Republicans should vote for McCain. A vote for Hayworth is a vote that does not garantee a Republican senator. Hayworth has little support among independents. They are far and wide throughout Arizona. Let's get real and wake up to reality. Vote for a man who has served and fights for this country.

Republican said...

McCain will win this election. The reason McCain is fighting hard for immigration is because the troops he has been asking for for over a year have yet to be sent to our borders. We lost an innocent rancher recently. The drugs and violence are getting worse. McCain has no other means to get troops other then drastic measures. Perhaps now this administration will listen. JD is a blowhard, far too corrupt and inexperienced to represent this State and Nation.

Serr8d said...

McCain is a disappointment. How many times has he stabbed Republicans? Remember when he considered jumping parties? Remember McCain - Feingold?

He tracks right only when he needs to, then he becomes a squishy moderate.

Please do us a favor and vote him out in the primary. We might not lose the general election; but even if we did, at least we'll be rid of John McCain. We don't owe him a war debt forever.

Anonymous said...

McCain has been getting money from the Marxist socialist George Soros since 2001! He has lied to all of us, done nothing for 20m years except fill his wallet and has betrayed the republican party as a progressive!!! Wake up you idiots.

 
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