Thursday, April 15, 2010

Obama, GOP folks knotted up

Our monthly look ahead to the 2012 Presidential race finds Barack Obama more or less tied with all four of the leading candidates for the Republican nomination. He trails Mike Huckabee 47-45 and Mitt Romney 45-44, ties Newt Gingrich at 45-45, and leads Sarah Palin 47-45. This is the weakest performance Obama's posted in these 13 monthly surveys and a pretty clear indication that passing health care has not done anything to enhance his political standing, at least in the short term.

It's not that any of the Republican candidates are particularly popular, or even that Obama's approval numbers have declined. But whereas in previous months a good number of the voters disapproving of his job performance weren't ready to commit to voting Republican in 2012 yet, now 85-89% of them do in each of these hypothetical contests. That suggests that even if Obama's overall unpopularity has not increased, the intensity of it has. For instance among voters who disapprove of Obama but also have an unfavorable opinion of Sarah Palin, she leads him by 22 points in a head to head contest. That wasn't necessarily the case in previous months.

Palin and Gingrich are the most popular among Republican voters...and the least popular overall. 71% of GOP folks have a favorable opinion of Palin but thanks to putrid numbers with Democrats and independents her overall favorability is 38% with 52% of voters having a negative opinion of her. For Gingrich 62% of Republicans see him positively but with similarly bad standing among voters outside the party his total favorability is 34% with 47% of voters expressing negative sentiments toward him.

Romney and Huckabee are less popular within their own parties than Palin and Gingrich but have better overall favorability numbers because they're less toxic to Democrats and independents. There is a real potential in the GOP race if all these folks run to put voters in a situation where they have to decide between who they like best and who they think has the best chance to defeat President Obama.

As we've said before these polls 31 months out from November 2012 don't matter a whole lot, but we do it every month to see the trends and it's definitely not a good one for Obama. But things could be completely different two years from now.

Full results here

30 comments:

Christian Liberty said...

Are you actually SURPRISED that "passing health care has not done anything to enhance his political standing"???

Passing Obamacare was SUICIDE for the Democrats. Since passing Obamacare, "even if Obama's overall unpopularity has not increased, the intensity of it has."

It is no accident that more people than ever prefer a congenial moderate like Palin over an arrogant radical like Obama.

Anonymous said...

I don't like any of the recycled trash from the last election. I am hoping that Paul Ryan enters the fray. He is young, intelligent, well spoken, CONSERVATIVE, and he not only understands the financial trouble this country is in but he has a substantiative plan to fix it. I believe he could beat Obambi in a landslide!

Anonymous said...

More bad news for Obama - Gingrich doesn't stand a chance in winning the GOP nomination. One term and done. Buh-bye, Obama. Don't trip over the ruins of our once great country on your way out.

Anonymous said...

I agree with Christian Liberty. I thought for sure that Obamacare would be voted down in the house because I made the mistake of thinking they cared about getting re-elected. Instead, they opted to own every complaint anyone has about the health care they receive. Then add every economic problem to that because most feel the economy was ignored by the dems to pass Obamacare. They made everyone who tried to warn them out to be the enemy and refused to listen. So I don't feel sorry for them. I think the only reason Republican candidates are not doing even better is there is a feeling that they haven't spent enough time in the time-out box. I don't know how this Obama administration misread the public mood in order to assume the election meant they were supposed to double down on stupid.

Ben (The Tiger in Exile) said...

Well, the Democrats are conducting a very interesting social science experiment right now -- what are the electoral implications of passing an unpopular reform bill?

Will people forgive and forget by November? Will they choose a new Congress, but forgive the president in time for his re-election? Or will they throw them out entirely?

We'll see.

Tim Sorweid said...

He's also running neck in neck with RON PAUL! Funny how that goes unmentioned.

Anonymous said...

How about this for a ticket
Paul Ryan and Ron Paul!!!!
Love it

Leonard said...

Anyone but Sarah "The Quitter" Palin.

This country needs Ron Paul.

Armchair Editorialist said...

I really question your Palin/Huckabee numbers. Your polling has been pretty shaky as of late (IMO), and your HC numbers are even stranger. How can people who approve of the bill want it to be repealed? Not sure what's been going on with you guys.

Anonymous said...

Palin a moderate? What are you smoking Christian Liberty?

Toadster said...

Ron Paul cant be mentioned to much to often, the zombies can only take so much truth at one sitting!

I once was blind but now I see!

RP 2012

Anonymous said...

Once people benefit from the new health plan, they will be as unlikely to oppose it as they so Social Security or Medicare. Look for the Bog O to roll to victory in 2012 over an inauspicious group of warmed up leftovers.

Foolsbane said...

Looking at the wreckage of the Obama administration I don't see how any rational American can support him. ANYONE would be better than Obama. He has ruined our economy, doubled out debt, raised our taxes, lied repeatedly and shepherded a government takeover of the healthcare industry in the face of strong opposition by the majority of the people.

Obama is bound for infamy!

Cory said...

Funny thing about polls, they can be shaped to say anything. To suggest otherwise is disingenuous at best and pure lying at its worst.

This poll says something negative against a man you don't like. Another poll will say something positive. We'll each deny the others polls as being biased and ignore them anyways.

It still doesn't change the fact that Obama campaigned on a platform that based health care as corner stone of his message. The american people voted him in by a majority. Regardless if it was to remove the previously disgraced leadership or if they supported his ideas or his race or whatever reason, he was VOTED in.

Whining about it won’t help the repubs win the next election. Neither will tying your horse to the Teabagger wagon. Come up with decent policies that include the population of american and not just the rich and the white. Improve the condition of poor and middle classes. Stay away from invading other countries. The right will not get back into power so long as all they have to offer is “we’re not the Democrats”.

I will be pleasantly surprised if the moderator allows my single voice of decent in an otherwise closed system which is another part of the problem. Conservatives blame liberals for not listening yet they refuse to listen themselves. Well here I am. I’m listening. Talk to me.

Anonymous said...

RON PAUL, that says it all. Not one mention here at Breitbart, shame on you Andrew.. even though Ron Paul is a Republican and was headlined yesterday as the Rasmussen poll showed him tied with Obama. I don't care if Ron Paul doesn't run for President. He still is the best candidate for bringing peace inside our borders and foreign policy that makes sense.

Anonymous said...

Cory...understood that he was VOTED in. So was Bush...twice. Amazing how your post was "allowed". Conservatives love the constitution without conditions and welcome free speech. But please do yourself a favor and stop with teabagger stuff already. It's unbecoming, ignorant and juvenile. It also happens to be THE ONLY HOMOPHOBIC LANGUAGE SURROUNDING THE TEA PARTIES.

i'm_just_joe said...

Ron Paul / Andrew Napolitano 2012!!!! You won't find two people who are more dedicated to the Constitution , sound money and personal freedom. Intelligence and experience before ego!!

Robert said...

From looking at the match data it appears that Gov. Huckabee and Gov. Romney are the GOP's strongest bets as they both do beter with moderates and independents than Newt and Palin.

Also interesting that Huckabee does better with young voters and Romney better than 65+.

I'd prefer Huckabee over Romney personally. I like that he opposed the TARP bank bailouts while Romney supported them.

Anonymous said...

By 2012 Obama will be so far in the tank that Mickey Mouse could beat him - providing that is that ole Mickey decided to run as a Republican. All kidding aside, I tend to believe that an awlful lot of follks, particularly those that voted for him in 08 are, at this point, almost desperately WANTING to see him succeed - yet are cotinueing to support him, only by the "skin of their teeth". Don't count on much of that same support to be there come 2012. Because, almost assuredly. it won't. At the rate Obama is going, his approval ratings might well be in the twenties by then. It wouldn't surprise me a bit.

DontTreadOnMe said...

OBAMA QUOTE:
“…my administration will make all information available to the American people so that they can make informed judgments and hold us accountable”

PLEASE ACCOUNT FOR YOUR BIRTH CERTIFICATE SIR. The time has come for the President to perform his duty to THIS country and show us his birth certificate. No certificate? Then all of these constitutional crimes go away; the czars, healthcare, all of it. There are too many questions, too many doubts and he has been dodging far too long. Where there is smoke there is fire. The more people that begin asking for the proof, the less he and the major broadcast networks will be able to ignore us as they have done with so many other issues. If there is the slightest doubt in your mind then you too need to be asking. We have let the seemingly small things go and look where that has taken us. I want to talk about it because they are in cover-up mode. It would be such an easy thing for any one of us to show our birth certificate. Why is it so difficult for him? Why does he treat this country as if he is ashamed of it? Why does he treat our allies as if they are enemies? Why does he encourage Congress to ignore the will of the people? Why did his wife refer to his home country as Kenya? Why will he not release his own school records? Why does he disgracefully bow to the leaders of other countries? Why does he admire dictators from other countries? THIS IS OBAMA’S WATERGATE. There is no need to impeach someone who is not qualified to be president. Everything he has signed, ordered, or acted upon is illegal. So I ask you Obama: WHERE IS YOUR BIRTH CERTIFICATE?

verbatim said...

"Passing Obamacare was SUICIDE for the Democrats."

Yes, this is true. Unfortunately, I think it's only good in the short term.

My greatest hope is that we kick butt in three stages:

1. 2010 midterms: hopefully we can take over both houses.

2. 2012 election: get rid of this dangerous president.

3. overturn this healthcare debacle all together.

Obviously achieving all three is a tall order, but one we must strive for. Otherwise, the Democrat dream continues.

Look what damage Democrats have already wreaked on America: the New Deal is still having effects; the Great Society is anything but; and now this third and very dangerous blow to American freedom: Obama's healthcare bill.

This is why, even if Obama loses in 2012, he still wins, unless we can overturn this disastrous bill.

Misfit410 said...

Why can't the GOP push it's real superstars like Paul Ryan. Palin is such a sweet lady but she is hokey and with such a mess it's going to take more than just charm and the basic common sense she has, it needs some really strong expertise in quite a few areas she will just be lacking in.

And I pray to god that Romney is no longer even a consideration, Palins statement that she would be happy about a Palin/Romney ticket tells me much of what she is saying at Tea party rallies are just words and she does not fully believe in what she is saying.

Dave said...

Paul Ryan is addressing the real problems. Mandatory spending makes up 57% of the budget. Add in interest and defense and you have 81% of the budget. Ryan is advocating cutting Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security benefits for people under 55. Even though it's the only real way to address the deficit Republicans don't want to come out against these popular programs. Most don't have the courage to line up behind Ryan.

Anonymous said...

Misfit410,

Couldn't agree with you more on Sarah Palin. Why did she campaign for McCain's reelection? Did she owe him something? He certainly is no conservative. I mean, look at his record; McCain/Feingold, McCain/Kennedy Amnesty, gang of 14 etc. We need someone who is unwilling to skirt their values and stand for something!

whispers said...

Actually, not passing any health care bill at all would have been suicide for the Democrats. That's what happened in 1993-1994. Democratic candidates who listen to political advice from Republicans invariably lose.

Cory said...

@Anonymous
Yes I was surprised to see my post. There’s some hope for an actual conversation after all without all the partisan crap that goes along with politics. Typical conversations with Republicans usually include some ranting about how they love and respect the constitution more than anyone else and that no one can understand it like they do. You didn’t disappoint there but I think you understand that Democrats also love and respect the constitution.

As for the term Teabagger, I’m using the word which Teabaggers use to describe themselves. Don’t blame me on that one. Even Fox news uses the term. Call them up and ask them to stop. The outcry against using teabagger as a derogatory term hasn’t stopped teabaggers from calling the President and Liberals all manner of foul things. If you want people to stop using the term and gain respect maybe you should spend some time reigning in those “fringe” members of your fraternity. I mean read some of the following posts. You still have birthers/baggers screaming that Obama is not a citizen. It’s these people that are giving the teabagger movement a bad name and not the term used to describe them.

And I notice you didn’t dispute anything that the Repubs need to do to regain power. I will take your silence as tacit agreement. Or maybe you, like the Republican party, have nothing to offer. What do you think the Repubs need to do to regain their status?

Anonymous said...

Cory: I'll talk to you, Corey.

George Herbert Bush was voted in in 1988. At one point in 1991 his approval rating was above 90%.

It meant nothing in 1992.

Obama is losing independents at a startling rate and 22% of "millenials", the young voters who were a huge political asset to him in 2008.

If that's not bad enough, oil may be on its way to $100 a gallon and for the economy to have any chance of recovery it needs to plummet to $60.00--which won't happen by the midterms.

Still want more bad news? He is the MOST clueless president about mideast affairs we've had since i've been following politics but to be fair that's only been 40 years.

He thinks he can muscle Israel into a Pax Americana and that Israel is an impediment to peace in the east.

Fact: Israel is the only nation in that part of the world that is capable of containing Iran.

Fact: Even if Palestine was granted statehood, vital differences between Hezbollah and Fatah would likely lead to civil war.

Fact: An Israeli-Israel peace accord would do nothing about containing the extremist ambitions
of bin Laden and Ahmadinejad, address the civil wart in Yemen;sectarian violence in Lebanon or moderate the despots that rule Syria and Egypt.

In other words, nothing that Obama could do--even if possible--would douse longlasting instabilities in the mideast.

And we haven't even discussed how Obama has blindly or indifferently allowed the healthcare situation to ferment into a national crisis eerily similar to the divisiveness that ensued in 1854 when the Kansas-Nebraska act was rammed through congress to kill the missouri Compromise--a miscalculation by President Buchanon and Stephen Douglas which ended the 40-yearreign of the dems across the board in Washington, led to civil war, opened the door for Lincoln, and gave Buchanon the label as one of the worst president's in American history.

There is precedent for today's "Tea Bag Party": it was that group of Americans in 1854 that was the nascent Republican party who came to Kansas as anti-slavery abolitionists. All the powers of the Presidency could not stop them.

Just as Obamacare is today, the Kansas-Nebraska act divided the nation and put the young republican party in power.

It did not matter at all that Buchanan had been voted in--nor does it matter today, thanks to Obama's obsession with healthcare that America has other irons in the fire.The man (or woman) who can--and will--use Obama's folly to stoke people like abolitionists did with the Kansas Nebraska Act to rise up against the current administration will topple it.
the

Christian Liberty said...

Whispers, Democrats getting political advice from the left is what causes landslide defeats like 1994. Democrats listening to moderates like Dick Morris and running to the center is what enables electoral victory, as in 1996.

After the Democrats suffer landslide defeat in 2010, Obama can either run to the center (like Clinton-Morris) to save his failed presidency.... or Obama can double down on his disastrous agenda and become another one-term failure like Jimmy Carter.

Anonymous said...

Hi Anonymous up there!
"Israel is the only nation in that part of the world that is capable of containing Iran."

Fact is that Iran does not have any expansionist designs - Israel does

If the USA divested itself of Israel there would no longer be any reason for the US to invade, occupy or interfere in the internal politics of any Middle Eastern country. Which is what a true American patriot would aim for.

PeteKent said...

What should surprise me, but no longer does, is how the MSM media is not covering these astonishing results. Could it be that they cannot possibly explain how trolls like Newt and Palin and Huckabee could actually be in the same league as Obama.

Chris Matthews noted without much comment today how popular the AZ bill is polling (2 new polls showing strong majorities in favor). He said we should take note of it, given how negative the media coverage was. What Matthews and the media needs to notice is how he and his ilk are so out of step with American popular opinion on so many issues of the day. The folks inside the Beltway are preaching to themselves.

petekent01 (on twitter)

 
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