One of the biggest blows to Mitt Romney's hopes for being the 2008 Republican Presidential nominee was his losing the neighboring state of New Hampshire. Right now it doesn't look like that would be a problem for him in a 2012 run. Romney is by far and away the favorite of voters in the state at this very early point, with the support of 39% of Republicans in the state. Sarah Palin comes in second at 13%, with Mike Huckabee and Newt Gingrich tied for third at 11%. Ron Paul is fifth at 7%, and if anyone out of the unlikely trio of Tim Pawlenty, Haley Barbour, and Rick Santorum was somehow able to win the state they'd be able to say in their victory speech that they started at nothing- Pawlenty registers at 3% with Barbour and Santorum at just 1%.
We've looked at the Republican race for 2012 now in 13 different states and New Hampshire is just the second where there's been a runaway leader. The other was Florida, where we found Romney with 44% to 25% for Palin and 17% for Huckabee. Florida and New Hampshire are two of the most important stops on the early Republican calendar, and if Romney had been able to turn his narrow losses in them into victories in 2008 there's a very good chance he would have been the GOP nominee. Obviously it's still a long way until 2012 but perhaps even more than his lead in our national polling, his broad advantage in this pair of key states speaks to his nominal front runner status.
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6 comments:
Obviously, Romney was expected to run strong in NH. IA, SC, NV would be more instructive.
But I wonder how well he would do, against Obama in NC, if he is the GOP pick? I say Obama would win by 2-3 points, b/c a lot of Southern Baptists, wouldn't vote for a Morman, and may sit out the election. Just a thought.
I would love to see that polled, for NC.
CL- I agree- Romney was expected to poll well in NH.
WE in NH will do everything we can to stop this guy!
The author of Obamacare? What are NH people thinking with this?
Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich ALL LOSERS... will guarantee four more years of Obama.
@Dustin
If, as speculated, a Romney-Palin ticket develops, this can eliminate many of these divisive problems (evangelicals voting for a mormon, conservatives voting for a moderate, pragmatists voting for someone who is "divisive" or "polarizing"). Palin may make it more attractive to vote for the ticket, just like Johnson helped make Kennedy more electable nationally.
I would be more concerned about Obama's electability as his foolish policies continue to cripple the economy.
Is so obvious PPP looks with good eyes to Romney.
PPP seems a DINO pollster.
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