Thursday, April 8, 2010

The Senate Races Post-Health Care

The polling's been pretty inconclusive on whether President Obama's approval rating has gone up or down since the passage of the health care bill, but what may matter even more is what's happening now with the 2010 Senate races.

In the last two weeks ten organizations have released polls on Senate races where they also had a relatively recent one conducted before the health care vote. In five of those the Democrat is now doing worse, in three of them the Democrat is now doing better, and in two of them there's been no change. On average the Democratic candidate is now doing 2.4 points worse on the margin than before the health care bill. It's a little premature to say that's all about health care though, particularly given that one of the races is Illinois where Alexi Giannoulias' family problems have a lot more to do with his standing than the bill passing.

I'd sum up the post-health care landscape this way: I don't think things have gotten better for Democrats, and I think it's possible they've gotten worse. But it's still too early to tell for sure. Here are the before and after Senate polls:

State

Pollster

Pre-HC

Post-HC

Shift

Missouri

PPP

Carnahan +1

Blunt + 4

R+5

Missouri

Rasmussen

Blunt +6

Blunt +6

None

Colorado

Rasmussen

Norton +9

Norton +5

D+4

Pennsylvania

Quinnipiac

Specter +7

Toomey +5

R+12

Illinois

PPP

Giannoulias +8

Kirk +4

R+12

Kentucky

Rasmussen

Paul +17

Paul +15

D+2

Nevada

Rasmussen

Lowden +13

Lowden +15

R+2

Ohio

Rasmussen

Portman +5

Portman +5

None

Ohio

Quinnipiac

Portman +4

Fisher +3

D+7

Arkansas

Rasmussen

Boozman +9

Boozman +15

R+6

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

Tom, I am stunned of your ability to be an honest progressive and tell the bitter truth to your friends. Thank You

Westwoodnc said...

If these states hold elections the GOP picks up CO, PA, IL, NV, AK, and lose OH. Before the HCR vote , they would've never picked up PA and IL. So I think it's not "inconclusive", it's moving the GOP way.

Christian Liberty said...

After forcing government rationing of healthcare upon America, the Democratic Party has fallen to its lowest approval ratings in 18 years (Gallup).

It is certain that America will resent the Democrats for forcing this abomination upon America -- raising taxes on all Americans (breaking Obama's campaign promise) and forcing people to purchase insurance (breaking Obama's campaign promise) and forcing taxpayers to support abortion (opposed by a majority).

Bluejoy said...

The Dems hold 57 seats and the House.
Our enthusiasm will go up the closer elections get. There just are not enough crazy people to seriously threaten our majorities. And people with names like Christian Liberty scare me. Do they not realize we created this country to aavoid people like that?

Christian Liberty said...

The Democrats LOSE the house for certain and hold AT MOST 51 seats in the House.

Then in 2012, Republicans will ADD to their majority in the House and will hold around 60 Seats in the Senate.

Bluejoy, this country was created for the very purpose of RELIGIOUS liberty. America was created to avoid the radical tyranny the Democratic party and the Progressive movement is trying to impose upon us.

Christian Liberty said...

Let's be honest.

Democrats will lose ND, DE, AR, IN, PA, NV, CO at the very least. And Republicans will win every open seat: FL, OH, KY, KS, NH.

Then Democrats will very likely lose CA and IL... and likely NY.

Then Democrats may also lose WA, WI, or OR.

Republicans should win every Republican-held seat and pick up at least 9 or 10 Democrat-held seats.

It's already better than a 50-50 bet that Republicans will have the majority in BOTH houses in 2011... and will ADD to these majorities in 2012.

Gillibrand 40, generic R 39
50% of LV in NY favor REPEAL!!
(Ras)

Gillibrand 40, Pataki 45 (Quinnipiac)

Schumer approval 47% (Marist)

Bluejoy said...

Christian you have a pro Alan Keyes blog on your profile. Need I say anything else? 57 seats.

Christian Liberty said...

Bluejoy, you just demonstrated that you are intolerant, even Stalinist, in dismissing the views of others. This is the fundamental flaw of progressivism. Progressives arrogantly PRETEND that they can dismiss people who don't agree with them. This is why progressive media is in continual decline, while moderate, centrist, honest, balanced, objective, fair, responsible media like Fox News is more popular than ever -- with Democrats and Independents as well as Republicans. So keep PRETENDING. You will be completely oblivious to the will of the American people.

 
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