Wednesday, May 26, 2010

Gingrich looking serious

Newt Gingrich is increasingly looking like a very serious contender for the Republican nomination in 2012 if he decides to take the plunge. He's been posting significant support in all of our state by state polling looking ahead to the contest, but his performance on our California poll this week was particularly impressive.

Gingrich led the way in the state with 28% on our poll to 25% for Mitt Romney, 18% for Sarah Palin, 13% for Mike Huckabee, and 10% for Ron Paul. California (obviously) is a long way from Georgia and Gingrich putting up those kinds of numbers so far from home is a clear sign that he'd be more than a regional candidate.

What was particularly striking in our California numbers was that Gingrich led Palin 33-19 among conservatives. The conventional wisdom has been that Palin would be the candidate of choice for the right if she decided to run in 2012, but might it actually end up being Gingrich? Too early to say but he definitely deserves to be mentioned in the same company as Huckabee, Palin, and Romney as the GOP candidates who already have a substantive level of national support.

24 comments:

DBL said...

Are you asking people the #1 reason for picking a candidate? I'd think that Mitt would get the fiscal vote, Huckabee the social conservative vote, Palin and Paul the anti-government tea party vote, and Gingrich the people who like experience and ideas.

You need to ask this:
The number one reason I selected my candidate was:

a) experience
b) best able to handle the budget and deficit
c) best represents my values
d) outsider who can take on government

I'm sure that you'll see a distinction based on what the #1 reason is for each voter. You can also see who is cannibalizing each candidate's vote if two people are close at the top on a reason. If Paul doesn't run, who does that benefit?

Bill said...

I beg the Lord please give us someone better than Newt Gingrich, Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee, and Mitt Romney. Please.

Anonymous said...

Gingrich? Are you for real? Bwahahaha!

John said...

Bill, how about former New Mexico governor, Gary Johnson? Did an excellent job there - and has climbed Mount Everest.

Anonymous said...

how was the poll conducted? sample size? what is the +/-?

i live in california. i serve on our local county central committee. i can't imagine gingrich getting that much support.

was "other" an option on the poll? please disclose more details, otherwise this is just nonsense.

Anonymous said...

Gingrich the party first inner circle GOP RINO of the Good Ole Boy system and also a warmongering Big Government GIZMO. When's this guy going to the retirement home?

Mitt Romney... you mean "Mandate Liberal Mitt" Failed Mass health care is over a Billion in the Hole/Red, Premiums Up(highest in the nation), and health care quality down. Add those disasters of Romney to his 2 decades of corporate raiding, destroying American businesses and jobs buy stealing their savings and pensions should be a warning shot of this Wacko Liberal in Republican clothing.

Huckabee? The crusader sleazeball that uses religion as his fund raisers and is well known as "Tax Hike Mike". Oh the Irony of a Silver-Tongued Devil crusading for money and votes carrying a cross and flag. Political Slime Preacher!

PNC said...

Gary Johnson? I hope not.

We've already seen how the kooky Paulbots have hijacked the Tea Party movement (though there's still hope).

The last thing the right needs is for the Paulbots to hijack the Republican Party itself. If that happens, you can say goodbye to ANY conservative influence in this country whatsoever.

PNC said...

I know I originally suggested adding Gingrich to the permanent pool of candidates for your 2012 GOP Presidential polls, but now I'm not so sure...

Gingrich is one of the more uncertain of the potential Republican hopefuls. We know Romney is going to run, and Huckabee is likely to give it another shot too. Palin seems to be gunning for something as well. But nobody has any idea what Gingrich will do; he contemplated running in 2008 but didn't.

I was initially for adding Gingrich as a permanent fourth choice after seeing how he took a significant number of votes from Palin. I figured that if he affects the position of the usually second- or third-place Palin, then including him in all the polls could make them more informative.

But now I see Gingrich significantly affecting the outcome, not just by shifting the runners-up around, but also changing the winner of the top slot, and even winning it himself now in California.

Though a 2012 California GOP Presidential primary poll would normally be quite interesting, a Gingrich candidacy could still easily turn out to be pure fantasy. With Gingrich included in the mix, there's a risk of invalidating the whole poll with a candidate who I'd give only about a 50-50 chance of running.

It's kind of like including Al Gore in a poll. Sure, lots of people would vote for him, but is he actually going to run again? Probably not.

Maybe it would be better to split your 2012 GOP Presidential primary poll into two (or possibly more) questions. The first question would pit the three main contenders (Romney, Huckabee, and Palin) against each other, while the second question would include Gingrich as the fourth.

Anonymous said...

Very rarely in history does an intelligent, honest, principled man enter politics for noble reasons.

Anyone who can't delineate Dr Ron Paul from the rest of that field is dumber than a sack of hammers.

Ron Paul 2012

McClarinJ said...

Gingrich a conservative? Horsefeathers! He is another aisle-crosser like McCain and a dedicated soldier in the war on America's sovereignty -- one more New World Order schemer that the tea parties are onto and will never support.

I pray to God the rest of the people wake up in time to see who their enemies are.

Anonymous said...

Rick Perry or Marco Rubio...I just switched from Democrat to Republican & either of these candidates would whoop Obama in the general election.

PROUD BLACK REPUBLICAN

Anonymous said...

Double digits for Ron Paul.

Quietly sneaking up on them...

Anonymous said...

I can understand why the GOP establishment would support Gingrich for President he is not a Conservative

Anonymous said...

Can someone tell me why the lunatic Paulites have taken over the comments at PPP? - Sane Conservative Republican

Jesse said...

Vote for smaller govt, lower taxes, freedom, and against war-mongering (vote for Ron Paul).

PNC said...

Disagree with him if you like, but Gingrich was the father of the Republican Revolution.

Calling him a RINO is just more of the reality-disconnected fringe nonsense Ron Paul and his supporters are famous for.

Christian Liberty said...

PROUD BLACK REPUBLICAN,

Welcome. You'll find that Republicans are better on race relations and equal rights than Democrats ever were... or could reasonably claim to be in the foreseeable future. While Republicans are more faithful to the principles of equal rights and equal protection under the law, it is the left that exploits race grievances for their own gains.

Dustin Ingalls said...

"how was the poll conducted? sample size? what is the +/-?"

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_CA_525.pdf

"Double digits for Ron Paul.

Quietly sneaking up on them..."

Doubt it. He gets single digits in any other state we've polled him in. Despite him actually being more right-wing than any of the other candidates, he does better with liberals and moderates in the GOP than conservatives, possibly because of his foreign policy and his opposition to the drug war, which standing against neocons, does look positively liberal. Since CA has a somewhat more moderate GOP than in some other states, he does just slightly better there.

"Can someone tell me why the lunatic Paulites have taken over the comments at PPP? - Sane Conservative Republican"

It's that way on a lot of blogs and social networks. I think if we did a crosstab on which presidential candidate's supporters spent the most time on the Internet, Paul's would win hands-down. I think they tend to be younger, in my experience, which would also explain their prevalence online.

Anonymous said...

Ron Paul 2012
Rand Paul 2010
Peter Schiff 2010
Gingrich Contract with America was
a failure for the most part

Anonymous said...

Ron Paul is anything but lunatic. He's the most sane person on that list. The Republicans had better wake up and realize that their foreign policy is endangering and bankrupting this country. It is time to return to principles of individual liberty and following the Constitution. Newt Gingrich is a globalist progressive. He supports the New World Order agenda that will destroy American sovereignty. Ditto for Mitt Romney.

Ron Paul is the only one who can beat Obama. Ron Paul 2012!!

PNC said...

"The Republicans had better wake up and realize that their foreign policy is endangering and bankrupting this country."

The Paulbots had better wake up and realize that it's *their* isolationist, head-in-the-sand, Russophilic foreign policy that would put the country in the greatest danger.

"It is time to return to principles of individual liberty and following the Constitution."

I agree, which is why I oppose Ron and Rand Paul. They don't stand for the Constitution as the Founders saw it; they stand for a radical revisionist reinterpretation of the Constitution.

"Ron Paul is the only one who can beat Obama."

Ron Paul and his son are the only two candidates who could make me, a staunchly conservative Republican, campaign for Obama.

Jed M. Merrill said...

Romney gave an AMAZING speech at the Reagan dinner this week. It is my favorite since his Faith in America speech. He has my vote!

http://mittromneycentral.com/2010/05/27/ronald-reagan-presidential-library-packed-as-mitt-romney-delivers-annual-reagan-lecture/

Anonymous said...

"Ron Paul is the only one who can beat Obama. Ron Paul 2012!!"

Judging by the disaster that is his son's candidacy following the primary, Ron Paul would get wholloped on an order we haven't seen since Reagan beat Mondale.

Anonymous said...

"The Republicans had better wake up and realize that their foreign policy is endangering and bankrupting this country."

The Paulbots had better wake up and realize that it's *their* isolationist, head-in-the-sand, Russophilic foreign policy that would put the country in the greatest danger.

"It is time to return to principles of individual liberty and following the Constitution."

I agree, which is why I oppose Ron and Rand Paul. They don't stand for the Constitution as the Founders saw it; they stand for a radical revisionist reinterpretation of the Constitution.

"Ron Paul is the only one who can beat Obama."

Ron Paul and his son are the only two candidates who could make me, a staunchly conservative Republican, campaign for Obama.


Lol, you're funny.

I feed off of RINOs like you who come out of the closet when a real republican stands up to the establishment.

Maybe you should switch parties, eh?

 
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