Monday, May 3, 2010

Implications of Arizona

After Democrats dominated the 2008 election in Nevada and Colorado, Senators Harry Reid and Michael Bennet have both been struggling in the polls so far this cycle. Part of the reason for their trouble has been an under performance with Hispanic voters. While Barack Obama won by 54 points with them in Nevada, Reid had only a 27 point advantage over Sue Lowden with them on our most recent poll. It's a similar story in Colorado. Obama had a 23 point advantage with them in 2008, but Bennet's lead over Jane Norton was just 47-35 when we polled the state in March.

Jan Brewer may well have handed Reid and Bennet the issue that will get Hispanics back to voting Democratic at the same levels they did in 2008. We've already seen a huge increase in Terry Goddard's support among Hispanic voters since the new Arizona immigration law was passed, and it's certainly something that could get Hispanics throughout the region rethinking their willingness to vote for Republicans this year.

How much of a difference would Reid and Bennet simply matching Obama's level of support among Hispanics in their states make? It would take 5 points off Reid's current polling deficit, about half of the margin in most polls. And it would give Bennet a two point advantage in our numbers, enough to turn a tie into a small lead.

It will be interesting to see what Democrats are able to do with this issue they've been handed.

15 comments:

Anonymous said...

You want to be able to maybe make this good point with a bit of evidence? make new NV and CO polls! Rasmussen polled NV last week and there wasn't any change in his numbers from a month ago, so this theory has no backing elsewhere yet.

DBL said...

You could find out. Ya know. By polling.

I'm skeptical, however. Brewer is taking a hit with Hispanics because it's her bill. Jeb Bush, Karl Rove, and Marco Rubio opposed it immediately. I'm sure more Republicans will follow suit. Maybe Herry Reid and Michael Bennet will be able to shout, "she's a Republican. They hate Hispanics." and it'll work.

Tom Jensen said...

I wouldn't expect an immediate change in poll numbers beyond Arizona, but it's something Democrats could use to effect with targeted outreach to Hispanic voters closer to the election in those other states.

Christian Liberty said...

It is to the BENEFIT of Hispanics who have come here legally and learned about America's greatness and gained American citizenship that immigration laws should be enforced. Any blip in Democratic numbers is entirely due to the demagoguery and willful misinformation of the left.

Hispanics, like independents, dislike incumbents. Democrats should underperform among Hispanics, just like they will underperform among independents.

Christian Liberty said...

Democrats' "outreach" to Hispanic voters would be nothing but demagoguery and LIES. Because the truth is that enforcing immigration laws benefits legal immigrants and naturalized citizens, including hispanics.

Intelligent hispanics, informed hispanics, vote Republican.

Ranjit said...

Tom,

It can also backfire on democrats loosing more conservatives or moderates in the party. As you know, overall more than 60% of Americans resist any amnesty for illegal immigrants. I am sure this number includes lot of democrats. They can just sit back and let this election go.

I have been watching lot of comment sections on the weekend's article in various news sources, on the march by hispanic community. Even in websites like CNN, above 95% people oppose any support for these marches on any issue associated with it. Depending upon the article, usually the comments will be 60% supporting and 40% opposing. But, it is not the case for this issue.

Anonymous said...

Rather than simply looking at the hispanic vote and how it is being galvanized by the recent events in Arizona, you should also take into consideration the fact that, overall, American voters support the Govenor (Jan Brewer)for signing off on the immigration bill, a week and a half ago, by an almost 2-1 margin. Keep in mind that the problems associated with illegal immigration is not totally unique to Arizona. Many other states are having to deal with many, if not most, of the same issues as what Arizona is. What little affect the hispanic vote will have, regarding the illegal immigration issue, will most certainly be countered by support for more stringent enforcement of our current immigration laws - of which is exactly what Arizona was and is attempting to do. If the Democrats think that they can somehow exploit this issue for political gain, they will most assuredly suffer the consequences for doing so. This is, in my opinion, a no-brainer.

Christian Liberty said...

It is a majority of Democrats, more than two-thirds of Independents, and more than two-thirds of Republicans that support immigration enforcement, such as Arizona's 1070 law.

Christian Liberty said...

Arizona should be commended and rewarded for doing the right thing: upholding the law.

BUY Arizona!!
If leftists can boycott, we can BUYcott!

http://hillbuzz.org/2010/04/28/hey-do-you-like-to-buy-stuff-then-buy-stuff-from-arizona-its-buycott-time-baby/

Arizona mail-order and retail companies:

http://www.hoovers.com/companyindex/Arizona/Mail_order_and_Internet_Retailing-1.html

http://www.hoovers.com/companyindex/Arizona/Mail_Order_Retailing-1.html

Anonymous said...

Isn't the likely GOP Colorado Senate nominee an avowed supporter of racial profiling? I'd think the Dem could use video of his past House floor statements in that regard to cut him off at the knees among Hispanic voters.

Christian Liberty said...

59% of Americans still favor immigration enforcement measures like the law in Arizona. And 50% of Americans have an unfavorable opinion of those who protest immigration enforcement.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/current_events/immigration/25_have_favorable_opinion_of_immigration_rights_protesters_50_unfavorable

Christian Liberty said...

Even when a NYT/CBS poll purposefully biases the poll question and wrongfully slanders the contents of the bill, Americans STILL support Arizona's immigration enforcement bill. After the poll question does all they can to criticize the bill and provoke a response that it "goes too far" only 34% say it does, while 60% say either the bill is about right or that it doesn't go far enough.

Americans overwhelmingly support Arizona's immigration enforcement. Democrats are foolishly, stubbornly, stupidly picking a losing fight. And when Democrats insinuate that police would not enforce the law responsibly, Democrats are only slandering their own constituents in law enforcement.

Christian Liberty said...

Aw, La Raza and unions boycotting Arizona? GOOD! Stay out!

"If so, this is one of the law’s unintended benefits.
Imagine no more La Raza members arriving with “Whites Get Out” posters, no union chiefs organizing “workers rallies” to protest reductions in cost-of-living raises for state employees or holding sit-ins to protest the deportation of foreign criminals who prey on citizens."

Read more at the Washington Examiner: http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/blogs/beltway-confidential/laraza-unions-plan-to-boycott-arizona-92885384.html

Christian Liberty said...

Fox News Poll: Arizona Was Right to Take Action on Immigration

"The new poll finds 61 percent of voters nationally think Arizona was right to take action instead of waiting for the federal government to do something on immigration. That's more than twice as many as the 27 percent who think securing the border is a federal responsibility and Arizona should have waited for Washington to act.
Most Republicans (77 percent) and independents (72 percent) support Arizona taking action. Democrats are divided: 43 percent think the state was right, while 41 percent think Arizona should have let the federal government take the lead."

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2010/05/07/fox-news-poll-arizona-right-action-immigration/

Once again, independents are more likely to agree with Republicans than with Democrats. Independents are virtually identical to Republicans in their support for Arizona's immigration enforcement measures. And even a plurality of Democrats agree with Arizona's immigration enforcement. Where's the controversy?

The implications of Arizona will be that most Independents, and many Democrats as well, will have more trust in Republicans than in Democrats on immigration and law enforcement issues.

Christian Liberty said...

Arizona Law Also Happens To Be Good Politics

"Usually after a measure like this has passed, the news media respond with stories about how the measure will hurt the GOP among Latino voters. This time, not so much.

... In 2003, the Democratic California Legislature passed a bill to allow illegal immigrants to obtain driver's licenses. Voters revolted and recalled Gov. Gray Davis, who signed the measure. In a craven act of cowardice, the Legislature quickly voted to rescind the bill it had passed.
In 2009, the Obama administration deported 5 percent more illegal immigrants than the Bush administration deported in 2008. As part of his immigration reform proposal, New York Sen. Chuck Schumer, a Democrat, is pushing for a national ID card for all American workers — the very type of documentation that critics of the Arizona law have said will turn Arizona into the "Your papers, please" state.
Hector Barajas, a former California Republican Party spokesman, said of Democrats, "They'll attend an immigration march and march with you, but on the back end, they'll say they want more agents to deport you. It's become a racket."

Don't believe the mainstream media myth that enforcing immigration laws is unpopular with hispanics or even with rank-and-file Democrats.

"Most of those voters, I think, simply believe that everyone should play by the same rules — and they don't want the government to reward people who flout the law."

http://jewishworldreview.com/0510/saunders051010.php3

 
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