The Kentucky Senate race is looking more competitive than it has in months, with Republican front runner Rand Paul leading Dan Mongiardo just 42-38 and Jack Conway only 41-40.
Republicans' hold on the seat would be more secure if Trey Grayson was somehow able to come back and win the primary in the final two weeks of the campaign. He has healthier leads of 43-35 against Mongiardo and 42-34 against Conway.
Paul had larger leads over both Conway and Mongiardo when PPP looked at Kentucky in December but as voters in the state have gotten to know him better his negatives have risen a lot faster than his positives. 28% of voters see him favorably, up from 26% in the previous poll. But 35% now have a negative opinion of him, a 12 point increase from 23% in the earlier survey.
Paul's really seen a fall in his standing with independent voters. Where he previously led Conway and Mongiardo by 33-34 points with them, that's now fallen to 15-20.
It looks likely Republicans will nominate their weaker general election candidate by picking Paul in two weeks, but Democrats are likely to do the same thing at this point. Mongiardo is the least popular person in the race, with 36% of voters seeing him unfavorably to 24% with a positive opinion.
It's still going to be an uphill battle for Democrats to win in Kentucky in this political climate, but Paul does have the potential to be a general election liability for the Republicans and this race could end up being more competitive in the fall than is currently anticipated.
Full results here