The race for Governor in Colorado is now tied, just a couple months after John Hickenlooper initially posted a large lead in the contest. Hickenlooper and Scott McInnis are getting 44% each.
It's not hard to pinpoint where voter perceptions of Hickenlooper are changing. Among people who voted for Barack Obama in 2008 his favorability is 75/9, virtually identical to the 76/10 he posted in March. But among McCain voters his net favorability has dropped 28 points, from a respectable 30/42 spread to now 18/58. Hickenlooper's run for statewide office as a Democrat seems to be costing him some of his crossover popularity with Republicans and conservative leaning independents.
Hickenlooper remains far more popular than anyone else running for office in Colorado this year at a 47/33 favorability spread. There's been little change in how voters view Scott McInnis. 31% see him favorably to 30% unfavorably, with the 39% plurality still having no opinion about him. His name recognition is ticking up ever so slightly- in March 44% of voters had no opinion about him.
One thing there continues to be no doubt about is that it's a very good thing for Democrats that Bill Ritter retired. His approval numbers have just gotten worse since he announced that he wouldn't run for reelection, and now just 34% of voters think he's doing a good job to 52% who say they disapprove of him. With independents his numbers are particularly bad- 30% approve to 53% who do not.
The biggest question when it comes to this race is whether all those typically non-Democratic voters who like Hickenlooper will choose him. Right now the answer is no. McInnis is winning 79% of Republicans while Hickenlooper is winning 78% of Democrats and independents are pretty closely knotted with McInnis getting 46% and 42%. That's the recipe for a very close race moving forward.
Full results here