Elaine Marshall will begin the runoff election against Cal Cunningham strongly favored. On our final pre-primary poll, which proved to be pretty accurate in predicting tonight's results, we also asked about a potential runoff election. Marshall led Cunningham 43-32. Among supporters of Kenneth Lewis, Marcus Williams, Susan Harris, and Ann Worthy 51% said they'd go for Marshall in a potential runoff to just 27% who expressed an intention to shift their support to Cunningham.
The early runoff poll particularly suggested that black voters would move their allegiances from Lewis or Williams to Marshall in a runoff contest. While Marshall led Cunningham just 21-12 among black voters for the primary, that lead expanded to 51-24 with them for a runoff. Cunningham is going to have to significantly improve his appeal to black voters over the next seven weeks if he's going to have any chance in the second contest.
So far the DSCC has implicitly supported Cunningham without sending any money his way. If that continues to be their approach it is virtually impossible to see Cunningham winning a runoff election. If they want him to be the Democratic nominee they're going to have to put some money- perhaps a lot of money- behind that desire over the next seven weeks. But for now Marshall looks like a strong favorite.