The main reason Scott Brown was able to pull off a shocking upset in the Massachusetts Senate race earlier this year was that he beat Martha Coakley 55-41 with moderate voters. Just how rare of a feat is that for a Republican Senate candidate? There isn't a single other one in a competitive Senate race we've polled this year leading with moderates- in fact with the exception of Florida the Democratic candidate is up by at least 8 points with centrist voters in every race.
It's just another data point showing that Democratic troubles this year are not the result of them losing the center, but of conservative voters being more motivated to turn out. In places like Kentucky and Missouri, where the GOP will be slightly favored to win this fall, Robin Carnahan and Jack Conway lead their respective Republican opponents by 40 points with moderates. Democratic candidates also have 20+ point leads with moderates in places like North Carolina, Colorado, and Ohio.
I think we may have all (myself included) made too much of the impending doom the Massachusetts results portended for Democrats this year. The combination of an exceptionally strong Republican candidate in Brown and an exceptionally weak Democratic candidate in Coakley created a formula that made it possible for the GOP to win moderate voters. But the Republicans haven't shown the ability to replicate that formula in any other key Senate contest yet, and as a result Democrats are decidedly winning the center.
Here's out Senate data on moderates:
-Jack Conway leads Rand Paul 60-20
-Robin Carnahan leads Roy Blunt 61-21
-Elaine Marshall leads Richard Burr 59-24, Cal Cunningham leads Burr 54-26
-Michael Bennet leads Jane Norton 54-31
-Lee Fisher leads Rob Portman 47-27
-Joe Sestak leads Pat Toomey 45-29
-Alexi Giannoulias leads Mark Kirk 36-23
-Harry Reid leads Sue Lowden 51-41
-Blanche Lincoln leads John Boozman 49-40, Bill Halter leads Boozman 45-36
-Paul Hodes leads Kelly Ayotte 47-39
-Charlie Crist has 34% to 32% for Kendrick Meek and 19% for Marco Rubio