Tuesday, May 4, 2010

Paul continues to lead big

Rand Paul continues to hold a dominating lead over Trey Grayson in the Republican primary for the Senate from Kentucky. It's 46-28 this month.

What's less clear is what's driving Paul's continuing dominance in the race. He does have a big lead with Republicans who think the party's too liberal, voters unhappy with the general direction of the party, and folks who consider themselves members of the 'Tea Party. But he has similarly large advantages among voters who think the party is ideologically 'about right,' folks who are happy with the current direction of the GOP, and Republicans who don't consider themselves members of the 'Tea Party.' So there's something more to Paul's current advantage than the conventional wisdom that he's effectively riding the wave of the 'Tea Party' movement.

Paul's lead also can't be chalked up to a large level of support in Kentucky for his father's unique brand of Libertarian Republicanism. Ron Paul earns only 6% in a look ahead to the 2012 GOP contest for President, well behind Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee, Newt Gingrich, and Mitt Romney.

Nor can it be attributed to a repudiation of Mitch McConnell, who although he's just now officially endorsed in the race has clearly been behind Grayson from day 1. Asked whether they have a higher opinion of McConnell or Jim Bunning, Kentucky Republicans pick the Senate Minority Leader by a 67-16 margin. If Paul holds this lead for the last two weeks and does indeed win the primary there will surely be a temptation among pundits to call it a victory for Bunning and a repudiation of McConnell but that just doesn't really hold true.

Whatever the reason for Paul's large lead it's clear that all the mud that's been slung in both directions over the course of the last four months in this race hasn't made a lot of difference. Paul was up 44-25 when we looked at in December, and since then he's gained two points in support while Grayson's gained three. It's going to take a large turnaround in the final two weeks for Paul not to be the victor.

Full results here


MarkS StC said...

Maybe people just like Rand Paul for who he is.

Nate Hodson said...

Phantom Numbers! Phantom!

Anonymous said...

Don't forget much of Grayson's ad dollars were devoted recorded calls by James Dobson attacking Rand Paul.

Now that Dobson has unprecedentedly rescinded his endorsement and is now making calls on behalf of Rand Paul then these numbers could/should be higher. In fact the Dobson remarkably placed culpability with GOP leadership (read: McConnell) in "misleading" (read: lying to him) him which should add credibility to an anti-establishment vote and question Grayson's credibility.

Anonymous said...

" Paul's lead also can't be chalked up to a large level of support in Kentucky for his father's unique brand of Libertarian Republicanism. "

I think there would be more support amongst independents and Democrats for Ron Paul. Those are GOP choosing amongst GOP favorites. Independents, about 1/3 of the national vote, don't get other choices of a favorite, and Ron Paul dominates in those races.

However, I think you are wrong about them saying their first choice isn't Ron Paul version of Republicanism. Rand's positions, a bunch of them, sound just like Ron's 'what we can do now' positions. Ron tends to broadcast his idealistic principles more than his 'this is how we act now that we are already in this mess' steps. I honestly believe a bunch of registered Republicans are reacting to the smear campaigns against Paul senior over the years, not to his policies as they really are.

Anonymous said...

"Whatever the reason for Paul's large lead it's clear that all the mud that's been slung in both directions over the course of the last four months in this race hasn't made a lot of difference."

Rand hasnt slung mud. Greyson has lied and made Rand defend himself. Atwater strategy if there ever was one. The truth of the matter is that Paul has merit, principle and dedicated supporters that believe his message. Greyson has McConnel and the party hacks, not the people, behind him.

Ryan said...

PPP seems confused about the results in their analysis. Did they not consider Trey Grayson's negativity and misrepresentations as a possibility? The mudslinging has been pretty much one sided. The only time Paul resorts to it is to defend himself from another erroneous Grayson smear. Republicans likely don't like the way Grayson has conducted this campaign. Not only is he likely to lose this race, he may have hurt his chances to further his political career if he has aspirations for governor. Bye bye Trey, McConnell can't save you from yourself.

markm247 said...

" Paul's lead also can't be chalked up to a large level of support in Kentucky for his father's unique brand of Libertarian Republicanism. "

It's flawed logic to say that the Libertarian ideals aren't at play in a legislative race because the father of the candidate fares poorly in polling for the country's most senior executive position.

As someone who calls Kentucky my home, I can assure you Paul's success has everything to do with the sort of fiscal conservatism that we've been missing since George H. was elected president.

Anonymous said...

This is not complicated, voters care about issues in this race and are making comparisons:


PNC said...

Most likely Rand Paul has been so successful because he's been hiding what he really believes--i.e., radical Constitutional revisionism, isolationism, blaming America first, racism, and 9/11 truther conspiracy nonsense.

Anyone who thinks Rand Paul could reject these beliefs without being completely disowned by his fanatical father and his father's even more fanatical Paulbot followers, is simply deceiving himself.

If everyone knew Rand Paul stood for the same things his father stands for, he'd be polling in the single digits just like Ron Paul does in all the 2012 primaries.

Poll a Paul vs. Mongiardo vs. Grayson 3-way race.

Anonymous said...


Here's an easy formula to see who's being paid off by a campaign to troll blogs. Look for the letters "IE" and then a spouting of rhetoric from the other side.

Come on Trey, your "strange views" campaign failed utterly. Just let it go and bow out. Spend that money AIG gave you on a nice vacation where people don't know you as a liar already.

As for the Mongiardo comparison, Paul vs Mongiardo's numbers kicks the crap out of Greyson vs Mongiardo's numbers.

Do some more push polling Trey, spend those funds!

Lucas said...

PNC: "Poll a Paul vs. Mongiardo vs. Grayson 3-way race."

Why? Trey Grayson already missed the deadline to register as an independent for this election. He can't run out of the Republican Ticket.

Christian Liberty said...

PNC, there is NOTHING radical about Rand Paul. Rand Paul's constitutional beliefs are common sense; they are the way the country SHOULD be. It is Democrats and leftist Republicans who are the radicals. Americans crave a return to Paul's honest constitutional principles.

PNC said...

CL, Rand Paul doesn't represent a return to Constitutional principles. Rather he stands for a radical revisionist reinterpretation of the Constitution--one the Founders would not recognize.

The Pauls would be at odds with greats like Jefferson and Lincoln if they were around today.

PNC said...

And in response to the Anonymous comment...I'm not being paid by Grayson. But accusing anyone who disagrees of being paid by shadowy puppetmasters is just the kind of paranoid nonsense the Pauls and their supporters are known for. And reason enough to keep these weirdos as far from the reins of power as possible.

Anonymous said...

Rand is saying something that's really old and really new. Taking things back in a direction that would be respected by the same men who founded this nation. Rand has made it clear he doesn't want a life long seat in the senate. he's spoken against it actually. He's really about change... the good kind.
I hope everyone will do their own research and vote Paul in the coming elections.

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