Sunday, May 16, 2010

Sestak up big in PA-12

It's just one Congressional district but Joe Sestak is doing very well in PA-12, which is a long distance from his home base in the Philadelphia suburbs. He leads Arlen Specter 44-35 there.

Democrats in the district give Specter pretty tepid reviews with 42% approving of his job performance in the Senate and 39% disapproving. Sestak is still relatively unknown with 37% of primary voters having no opinion about him but among the ones who do he gets good reviews with 40% seeing him favorably and 22% unfavorably.

As I wrote on Friday Sestak's potential victory on Tuesday is not an example of the left flexing its muscle. Among liberal voters in the district Sestak and Specter are actually tied at 44% each. Sestak's lead comes largely thanks to a 49-21 advantage among conservatives within the party who make up 26% of the primary vote in this district, almost equal to the 25% who identify as liberals. Sestak is also up 41-36 with moderates.

I have no idea how predictive, if at all, PA-12 is of winners in Democratic primaries but the numbers here would seem to bode well for Sestak.

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

Both Burns and Sestak are likely to pull it off.

Anonymous said...

You didn't ask Rs about primary between Russell and Burns?

Aron said...

The percentage of PA-12 primary voters disapproving of Specter's job performance dropped three percentage points since you last polled the district in mid-April, from 42% down to 39%.

Harry Joe Enten said...

Of course Sestak would be up big here. Look at the 02 primary between Rendell (another Philly guy) and Casey... Rendell got slammed in the counties that make up this district. I think the highest percentage of the vote he got in any of them was in Allegheny where he got 45% of the vote (compared with 57% statewide).

Most of the counties (including the only county that is fully within the district Greene, which went to Bob Casey by nearly 40%) went for Casey by 20%+.

The predictive value of this district is unfortunately about zero to none.

That doesn't mean that Sestak doesn't romp, but this district won't tell us that.

Anonymous said...

Sestak's being up by only 9 pts in PA-12 actually makes me think that Specter will pull it off. This is all conservative Dems.

Aron said...

Based on these numbers from PA-12, it appears Arlen Specter might have another 5 months to plan for Pat Toomey.

Among Obama Voters

Arlen Specter 43%
Joe Sestak 38%

Among Liberals

Arlen Specter 44%
Joe Sestak 44%

Anonymous said...

If one was REALLY a “great American” they would take the 5 minutes it takes to Goggle fact check what Republicans in Congress and Conservative spokespersons like Newt Gingrich/Sarah Palin are propagating. Progressives already KNOW the TRUTH AND THAT IS WHY WE ARE WORKING SO HARD AGAINST THE Republican Party.

The maddening part of this phenomenon is that Republicans/Conservatives either refuse or don’t possess the capacity to ADMIT THEY WERE WRONG! These right-wing hypocrites constantly make WEAK excuses, avoid accountability like the plague and dance around any issue like Charles Krauthammer… lol. Only in right-wing world can silver spoon LOSERS like Sarah Palin, William Kristol AND Jonah Goldberg make a good living from being WRONG all the time…

Let’s not forget Reagan union busting and DEREGULATION. The ROOT of all future Corporate scandal. We must go to the 90’s with Newt Gingrich/Tom Delay/Phil Gramm Republican’s to find out how Republicans sold out the American middle/working class.

I wanted to ask the Grich about all the hidden legislation such as the “Expatriate Clause” in Clinton’s Family Leave bill. It allowed the super rich (multinational Corporations, Saudi royals, drug trafficers, etc) take their billions out of the country PENALTY FREE!

Newt oversaw legislation/policy that paved the way for loss of American jobs, off-shore tax evasion, media consolidation, predatory lending and a “Corporate Crime Wave” of EPIC proportions

While Republicans were waving the American flag and professing love of the USA, behind the scenes they were busy selling out our children’s future. Explain to me please Newt, what good can come from the US Government insuring the venture capital of Corporations that move American jobs to Communist China? Why should Americans TRUST Gingrich or ANY Republican ever again?

Especially Sarah Palin. I swear these Conservative wackos would rather do what’s right for Sarah Palin, Rush Limbaugh and Fox Spin… ahhhh, I mean News, than what’s good for the USA. Years of being brainwashed by Limbaugh’s AM “Radio Free Conservative” has made the right-wing into lowest form of humanity.

Somewhere in the dark recesses of my mind I secretly hoped for McCain/Palin to win the 2008 election. It was a lose-win big situation. The USA would have been so #*~/ed up by now the Republican Party would have NEVER recovered from the angry backlash.

Republicans would have been forced to take responsibility for their reckless economics, regulatory failures and insane foreign policy. It’s just so easy for the shameless b@^*~’s to blame President Obama for everything under the sun. DO I MISS GEORGE W.BUSH? #*~/ NO! Are you people nuts?

To be honest the ONLY problem I have with Obama/Biden and Democrats in Congress, is they do not possess that killer instinct needed to put right-wing adversaries down once and for all. What happened to holding Republicans ACCOUNTABLE for all the waste, fraud, abuse, scandal, sexual deviancy, corruption, lies, deregulation, incompetence, job outsourcing, off-shore tax evasion, reckless economics, welfare for the rich, war profiteering, Constitutional violations AND a Corporate Crime Wave of epic proportions.

The WORST looting of a nation’s wealth and resources in the history of MANKIND! All the result of 8 years of Bush/Cheney and the Republican Controlled Congress of 1994-2006... Hey FBI, ever hear of the R.I.C.O. Act? I know, I KNOW… it’s just a coincidence every time a Bush is in the White House we have to suffer through banking fraud, scandal and corruption… JEEZ you Conservative wackos are stupid!
consciousmc.blogspot.com

Christian Liberty said...
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