We'll have final polls out in PA-12 and on the Kentucky Republican primary late Sunday night.
With Tuesday's big primaries in the rear view mirror, what should we poll next weekend? We'll take your nominations for the next few days and put it to a vote on Monday.
Have a good weekend!
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78 comments:
South Carolina-- the GOP GOV, SC-2, SC-5, you name it.
Fla Sen.
CA-SEN, CA-GOV, Michigan GOV, Texas Gov
CA36, GA12
Va 5th district GOP.
SC races, FL races, CA Races and CO races. Anyone of them would be good
CA SEN and GOV. Let's see if the Palin and Santorum endorsements changed sth...
MA House, esp MA-4, MA-5, MA-10.
MA-10!
Poll MA-GOV
There is very little polling in CA-Gov and CA-Sen. Should be polled without a vote on it even.
May 26: Filing Deadline for AZ Democratic Senate Primary. How does Dougherty (and any others) entering the race challenge Glassman?
After that, June 1 primaries in AL, MS, NM
Iowa Sen.
NV GOP Sen... huge changes here in recent Mason-Dixon. Is it true or a fluke?
California? Rasmussen and Survey USA just came out with polls. I'm sure the LA Times has one in the works. MA-4? If Barney has less than 70% I'd be surprised.
Polling the general right before a primary doesn't make a lot of sense. Wait until after that. The only exception I'd make would be UT-Senate because no one has polled a race without Bennett.
You could do congressional races in Ohio, Texas, N. Carolina, and Indiana now that the match-ups are known.
Generic ballot; New Mexico, House and Gov's races; Texas House and Gov's races.
CA. Interesting primaries for GOP sen and gov nods. See is conservatives are rallying around Fiorina to beat Campbell
I second polling the California Senate race. (Rasmussen currently shows Boxer as very vulnerable but not losing yet, but then they got the Mass. Senate race wrong while PPP got it right.)
If you poll South Carolina, I'd suggest covering the 2012 GOP Presidential primary there too. Two of the three GOP candidates who performed best in SC in 2008 (McCain and Thompson) aren't going to be running in 2012. I'd like to know who would benefit among the current field of candidates. (i.e., would Huckabee or Romney pick up more of Thompson's old supporters?)
The last thing on my wish list would be a poll of the 2012 Republican Presidential hopefuls in Iowa.
CA-SEN, CA-GOV, TX-GOV, FL-SEN
NM and IA
poll the 4th district in MA. to see who is leading in the race against Barney Frank. TY
IA-Sen/Gov- Is Chuck Grassley actually starting to become vulnerable? Does Chet Culver have any chance? What about the GOP gubernatorial primary? Does Branstad have that locked down?
CA- Sen/Gov- How vulnerable is Barbara Boxer in the Senate race? Is Tom Campbell still in the lead for the GOP Senate Nom? In the governor's race, Meg Whitman seems to have taken a tumble in both primary and general election polling. Some confirmation on that would be interesting.
NV-Sen- Is the new immigration law in AZ having any effect on the NV Sen race? Did Sue Lowden's "Chickens for Checkups" gaffe help improve Harry Reid's chances of reelection? Did it hurt Lowden's chances in the GOP primary?
MA house races, add the hampden 2nd to the 4th
MA HOUSE 4TH
I'm very interested about
MN-Gov
DE-Sen with Kaufman too.
ME-Gov
TN-3
IA SEN/GOV
IN SEN
MN GOV
2012 Allen v. Webb rematch in Virginia? PPP put out one poll on the matter and hasn't revisited it since.
National house race: FL-08 or ID-01 (most vulnerable democrat?) or co-04 (could we prove a tossup dem seat lean dem? Or make it farther on the republican side...
MA-Gov
IA-Gov
SC-Gov
IN-Sen
Iowa. You can poll 2012, Obama's approval (he'll need it if he wants to win), the getting tighter according to recent polling senate race and governor race. Also it is not known of branstad has the republican primary locked up. And you haven't been there before.
What about MS-01? How vulnerable is childers? And this state hasn't been polled since 2008.
I'll nominate Texas Governor too. No one except Rasmussen has done it lately so it'll be good to get another set of eyes there. Also, it's worth seeing whether the renewed immigration debate is having a similar effect on white and Hispanic numbers as it is in Arizona.
Cal Sen, Gov and Prop 14. Interested to see how Prop 14 (Top 2 primary) is doing. If it passes it could really change the dynamics of future elections in Cal.
MN Gov The field has thinned enough that the race can now be reasonably be polled.
MN-01 Ok I would mainly like to see this race polled because I live there but it is exactly the type of district Republicans need to do well in if they are going to make big gains in the fall (PVI R+1, rural, white)
WA Sen If Rossi runs would the seat be in play?
WA-03 primary Open seat with multiple candidates from each party and a top 2 primary system. What are the chances we end up with an R/R or D/D general election?
"You could do congressional races in Ohio, Texas, N. Carolina, and Indiana now that the match-ups are known."
The matchups aren't all known in NC yet; there's still the June 22 runoff. And the 8th is the only CD in NC that'll be remotely competitive, and even then, if D'Annunzio wins the GOP nomination, it probably won't be.
MD Governor. Rasmussen poll has O'Malley leading 47-44.
CT Gov, Sen, and CT-4 and CT-5.
A question and a suggestion.
Suggestion: Arizona Senate.
Question: When doing national polls, are the regional breakdowns based on the Census Bureau's definition of the regions, and is that standard across all pollsters? That is my understanding, but I want to verify.
BobH
OH.Sen, OH-Gov
I feel like we need a Michigan Gov poll both the primaries and the general. It's your home state Tom Jensen and the race has been referred to as somewhat of a national bellwhether. I feel the only pollsters who have looked at the race have terrible track records and I'd like to see whether PPP finds this race. Please consider this one.
NJ-12 Rush Holt against Sipprelle
NJ-6 Frank Pallone against Gooch
Republican primaries in VA-02, VA-05, and VA-11.
NV Senate
Alabama Governor, both party primaries. Should be competitive on both sides. It would be interesting to see if Ron Sparks has any chance in the Democratic primary and what is going on in the Republican primary, especially with the crazy TV ads attacking the frontrunner for believing in evolution.
CA-Sen and Gov + Primaries would give you lots of coverage b/c of so few polls. FL-8 certainly would, unless that as a progressive you don't want to see a poll that will show: Webster 60%, Grayson 35%... I Grayson would be tied or ahead or not trailing big he would've released an internal poll.
Why on earth did you poll GAry Johnson in the last head to head race with Obama and not Ron Paul? Particularly when a Rasmussen poll had Obama and Paul only 1% apart, and Gary Johnson got very few votes, even in second place, at the SRLC where Ron Paul came in second by one vote?
The thing about Ron Paul is that he appears to have major strength with independents, it is the 'other favorites' in the GOP which make the primary issue tough. However, part of that is the meme that he can't win. To know if that is true, it would take head to head polling with Obama.
It seems ludicrous to me that you would poll Johnson instead of Paul given their relative name recognition.
What was the thinking there?
More suggestions:
MN-Gov
TX-Gov (for sure)
Please poll Mississippi.
No poll there since Election 2008.
Thx
NM Gov (including GOP Primary) and NM House races.
South Carolina (Primary is pretty close), Illinois (it seems everything has been revealed about Broadway bank, now measure the full fallout), Washington (It looks like Dino Rossi is going to enter, Rasmussen had him tied, some poll had him down 15, Survey USA had him up 10, we need PPP to tell us where the race is really at).
MN-Gov.
The last "poll" of SurveyUSA is not believable.
1. Florida Senate
2. Ohio Senate/Governor
3. Arizona Senate GOP Primary
4. Virginia 5th, 2nd, and 11th CD's
Since you guys are based in NC, It would be good for you to poll: NC2 (Etheridge), NC7 (McIntyre), NC8 (Kissell) and NC11 (Shuler). All are competitive districs which the GOP should win if it is such a good year for them.
IL9,GA4,CA11,MA10.
FL-8! By how many points will mycongressmanisnuts.com be steamrolled by Webster?
Nobody polled yet FL-08 (Grayson)! Can't see any congressional district poll that would get so much coverage like an FL-08 poll.
Can PPP start doing 5 or six polls a week, I'm sick of Rasmussen's insta-polls dominating the media narrative.
Haha we'd be happy to do 5 or 6 polls a week but someone would have to start paying for them. We can only do so much for free out of the goodness of our hearts.
I approve of the goodness of Tom's heart!
Tom, you gotta team up with a Republican pollster, so media clients will be able to take you for polls and not, not being able to because it can be accused (wrongly) of bias! You were 10 times better than SUSA this cycle.
Ok...we're DYING for you to release the result. The suspense is killing everyone.
Tom, someone relayed it to me, I don't want to believe it because of your honesty, that you aren't polling FL-8 for obvious reasons, Even though it was already recommended multiple times, it was never even put up for a vote. Make me debunk this conspiracy and poll FL-8.
We're not going to do FL-8 publicly because we have done several paid polls for Grayson in the past.
Tom, if it wasn't released, then Grayson was trailing terribly! I a campaign can even twist a bit a poll's results to show a small lead then they do it and release it, obviously you can't make a 20 point deficit into a lead....
It was over a year ago and Grayson did release the numbers publicly:
http://tinyurl.com/2dbvvyf
Well, the climate changed a bit in a year.....
If he was at 46% a year ago when Obama's approval was still sky-high and not against Webster, and not after his most bizarre comments!, then I don't have to guess the results! I haven't found a pundit that thinks that Grayson will survive! Even Bachmann needs and R+7 district to barely survive! Grayson is in an R+2, not D+7!
SC or CO...Colorado is underpolled for such a close race, and SC represents an interesting potential Dem pickup.
IA Sen,Gov and House.
Tom, what is your criteria for polling specific house races? It's foolish to mention certain ones ( MA-04) if you aren't even going to consider them.
Colorado GOP and Dem senate nomination, no one has polled the GOP race and few have done the Dem race.
Florida House race Grayson
- Grayson in FL
- Texas Governor
- OH senate
Tom,
It's time to add Rudy Giuliani in your 2012 polls...
Encore? Giuliani sets stage for 4th act
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0510/37324.html
MS-04 and TX-17. Two conservative Dems that manage to hold heavily-Republican districts. I'm especially interested in Gene Taylor, who seems to be outhustled by his Republican opponent (he got outraised in 1Q).
Another one would be UT-02 -- Matheson was forced into a primary at the party convention, it would be interesting to see what kind of support he has.
Texas Governor, see if Rasmussen is accurate on Perry.
Yes,
I definitely think CA-SEN and CA-GOV are two very dynamic races that need to be looked at.
Also, hardly anyone seems to be doing much polling in the Pacific Northwest. WA and OR are two deeply purple states that are facing a lot of red pressure this year.
I think CT-SEN race after the NYT article reporting Dick Blumenthal lied about military service puts this seat back in play.
Would the public be willing to pay 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, etc. more for "made in USA" products vs. foreign? Examples: Can Openers, Home Appliances, or everyday kitchen products.
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