What impact does Bud Chiles dropping out have in Florida? You can argue it either way.
Those planning to vote for Chiles on our poll last week:
-Voted for John McCain by a 62/33 margin in 2008
-Disapprove of Barack Obama by a 69/31 margin
-Were 47% Republican, 30% Democratic, and 23% independent
Contrary to conventional wisdom the Chiles voters were Republican and conservative leaning folks quite unhappy with the Democrats. So you might expect his dropping out to actually benefit Rick Scott.
The only problem with that- 60% of them have an unfavorable opinion of Scott while only 15% see him favorably. Chiles was a landing spot for folks who didn't like Scott or the Democrats. With him out those folks are going to have to make a lesser of two evils choice- does it bother us more to vote for a guy we dislike or to vote for a Democrat? My guess is it ends up being a wash and having no real effect on the race.