Early next week, we'll have reports on the GOP gubernatorial and Democratic Senate primaries in Florida and the GOP Senate primary in Louisiana.
Then we're coming at you with general election numbers for those races, as well as another look at opinion on oil drilling in both states, and a comparison in Louisiana between Bush's handling of Katrina and Obama's of the BP oil spill. Also stay tuned for a potentially controversial set of questions in Louisiana relevant to the Senate race.
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7 comments:
As absolutely scandal ridden as David Vitter is, I find it absolutely amazing that the guy is polling as well as he is.
Just amazing.
What/when is the next poll you are doing for Kos?
Do you have any kind of schedule for you KOS polling?
Will you use the likely voter model for these states too?
We will start a more regular polling schedule for Kos after Labor Day. All of our horse race polling should be likely voters for the rest of the cycle.
This is bad polling in Florida. You don't poll the general before the primary, and then release the numbers after the primary. Results can change right after the primary as you well know. Maybe not as much as Rasmussen's bounces, but this is still weird.
Anon: If anything, polling the hypothetical contests before the primary is more accurate than polling anytime within a couple weeks after a primary, when media coverage has a huge impact on numbers, as you mentioned with Rasmussen's flukey results after this year's primaries.
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