Republicans lead the generic Congressional ballot on our newest poll, 45-42.
There are two things driving the GOP's success: a more unified party than the Democrats and an advantage with independent voters. 89% of Republicans are committed to supporting their party's candidate for the House, while only 81% of Democrats say the same about theirs. Independents also lean toward the GOP by a 37-33 margin.
The GOP lead comes despite the fact that Congressional Republicans have only a 24/61 approval rating. GOP leadership has only a 40% approval rating even with its own party's voters. If Republicans do indeed win this fall it will be interesting to see if the party realizes that victory came in spite of rather than because of the current leadership, and if any changes are made. That could be critical to Republican chances of keeping the House for more than 2 years.
The undecided voters on the generic ballot tell an interesting story. They voted for Barack Obama by a 46/32 margin. But they now disapprove of him 38/48. And they disapprove of Congressional Republicans even more, 9/65. They dislike Congressional Republicans more than Obama- but will that be as important a factor in how they vote this fall? Hard to say at this point.
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Say what you want about Republican House leadership, but they know what they did wrong, they've admitted their mistakes, and know that no one on either side of the aisle likes or trusts them. While I can't vouch for Boehner, I can for most everyone else.
Republicans have at least admitted that government spending is the problem. Democrats remain mired in denial. And when Democrats race back to the House to vote for more pork for corrupt teachers' unions, it only reinforces why independents reject Democrats.
Democrats' rationale for teachers' union bailout exposed as fraudulent
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/blogs/beltway-confidential/vote-prevents-teacher-layoffs-that-were-never-going-to-happen-100617859.html
Nate has said that anything more than a 2.5 point advantage on the Generic Ballot gets the GOP the House. http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/04/generic-ballot-points-toward-possible.html
Even PPP has come around now, so I think it's gradually becoming closer to reality. Let's not get cocky, obviously. But it's looking like the GOP will have the opportunity to put forth a solid platform, as well as the responsibility of convincing voters of its merit, before the 2012 race.
So far the news is overwhelmingly positive. Americans prefer Republicans by 12 points... and independents prefer Republicans by 31 points.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot
And most voters agree that it is the Democrats whose agenda is extreme... and voters are more likely to agree that the Republican agenda is mainstream.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/august_2010/57_of_likely_voters_describe_democratic_congressional_agenda_as_extreme
And Obama is judged to be at least as worthy of blame as Bush for the poor economy.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/august_2010/48_blame_obama_for_bad_economy_47_blame_bush
American voters are also more likely to understand that the "stimulus" has HURT the economy.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/business/economic_stimulus_package/july_2010/29_say_stimulus_plan_helped_the_economy_43_say_it_hurt
Democrats have NOTHING to run on. Everything of substance speaks in favor of the Republicans.
Republicans will win a landslide victory... as Democrats get the thumping they rightly deserve.
Democrats putting government first means governing against the interests of the American people.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2010/08/13/putting_government_first_106729.html
Our self-preservation as a nation and as free people demands that Democrats be severely punished for their tyrannical theft of taxpayer funds, embezzling taxes to fund their corrupt union cronies.
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