Tuesday, August 24, 2010
North Carolina and Ohio Question Suggestions
North Carolina and Ohio are on deck for our polling this weekend. Obviously we'll be looking at the Senate races in both states and the Gubernatorial race in Ohio but what else should we poll in those places? Always appreciative of creative and interesting question ideas.
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Have you ever done any polling regarding the political future of Ohio State football coach Jim Tressel? I know people half-jokingly refer to him as "The Senator," but I wonder if there is any way to craft a question that could actually gauge whether he could eventually be like a Tom Osborne and transition from leading the state's dominant athletic program into politics.
Polling Boehner and McConnell's favorables would be fun. The GOP has made it no secret that they think demonizing Pelosi and Reid is a good strategy, so it would be interesting to see if Democrats could pull the same thing off with the Republican minority leaders or not.
Attorney General race in Ohio. Will DeWine make a political comeback?
generic ballot (D/R) on the economy.
it would be interesting to see how badly Dems are perceived now, while there is still an exaggerated sense of optimism in the "recovery".
Put/call ratio is at lowest since April (before the market peaked and suffered the flash crash). The realization that such optimism in the "recovery" is unfounded will soon dawn on the majority of voters... and it would be helpful to get a baseline before Dems approvals drop even further.
1. Indians and Red Baseball Team.
2. With so many House seats in play, this is another good spot to do Generic House. Republicans could pick up 3-4 seats here.
3. Are you going to do a Brown 2012 poll again? You never polled against a particular person.
4. What do voters think of the way their election system is running in Ohio?
5. Whether being connected to Bush (Portman) or Strickland (Fisher) is more important? I suppose you could connect Fisher to Obama.
6. Ohio is going to be very important in redistricting this year. The State Secretary of State is important in that. It is Husted (R) vs O'Shaughnessy (D). The Auditor plays a role as well. Pepper (D) vs Yost (R). The Green Papers have the full candidates.
Ohio: Poll Sean Swain. He's running for governor. He's a prisoner.
Seriously, even if you don't look at his website.
http://www.seanswain.org/
"Attorney General race in Ohio. Will DeWine make a political comeback?"
We already did that at the end of June. DeWine led Corddray 44-41.
Thanks Dustin, I guess I missed the Ohio AG poll.
As usual, the 2012 Republican Presidential primary in Ohio and North Carolina would be good to poll.
I'd also suggest polling somehow on Sherrod Brown's reelection in 2012. Maybe a Brown-DeWine rematch.
A huge issue of debate has been the 3-C passenger rail project. Kasich has come out firmly against it and Strickland has made it his baby.
I've only seen one poll, and that was months ago, showing voters firmly against it. Would very much love to see where it stands now that both candidates have made it an issue.
Suggested wording: "Do you support the construction of the taxpayer-funded 3-C passenger rail project?"
Would you be more or less likely to vote for a candidate who supported stimulus/health care reform?
Should health reform law be repealed?
With all the attention it's been getting lately with GOP candidates, I'd love to see polling on 1.) whether people believe global climate change is taking place and 2.) if people believe human activity is a leading factor in it. Ohio in particular would be worth polling on that, even though I've got a feeling that the results might hurt.
In general, I'd also be interested to see polling on how much trust people have in science. I don't know how you'd word the question, though.
I'd really like to see a breakdown between a "Ohio votersrs" and likely voters. How good we some candidates be doing if everybody showed up at the polls.
Ask those that support Republicans whether they want John Boehner or someone else as speaker.
CD 13 (Sutton v Ganley) and 17 (supposing a Trafficant write-in candidacy against his former staffer - could be interesting). Maybe 14 to get a good idea of the state writ large since it seems fairly representative of the state (although LaTourette is almost certainly safe).
We're not going to do individual CDs, but we will do generic ballot.
"I'd really like to see a breakdown between a "Ohio votersrs" and likely voters. How good we some candidates be doing if everybody showed up at the polls."
We can only methodologically provide you with one or the other, based on how we poll and determine likely voters. And at this point, we're going with our LV screen for the rest of the way.
Ballot test McCrory vs Perdue...
I'd like to see Hagan, Perdue and Obama approve/disapprove numbers from North Carolinians.
Hey guys,
Are you going to poll New Mexico ?
No poll there for a couple of months now.
Before asking the Senate head-to-heads, how about getting a perspective on how informed the voters are?
"Can you please tell me the name of the Republican candidate for Senate?" and "Can you please tell me the name of the Democratic candidate for Senate?"
Prompting people with the names first gives them a reminder. It would be interesting to see how many people actually know the candidates' names unprompted. Alternatively, you could do "Which of these people is the Republican candidate for Senate this year?" then list several names, one the right one, one a previous recent same-party officeholder, one made-up name, and one opposite-party name. That would also give a new perspective on name recognition.
What about a question on voter intensity, and relationship to the "Tea Party"? For example, after an "intensity question" and normal party identity, GOP, Dem, Indy, ask a seperate question about Tea Party Identity, and/or Tea Party favorability? My thinking is a tracking on Tea Party and intensity of interest in Ohio might be a decent approxiamation of nationwide attitude, and could impact some voter weighting extrapolations, particulary as you get closer to the election.
The real issue I am curious about is Stivers/Kilroy, because I consider that district be an extremely important bell weather.
A couple major current issues in Ohio: Gov. Strickland is considering whether to grant clemency to Kevin Keith, who is a death row inmate scheduled for execution whose guilt is in doubt. There are also bills in the legislature that would expand legal concealed-carry so guns could be carried in restaurants and bars and to block businesses from banning the storage of guns in locked cars in their parking lots.
What issues are voters considering in state legislative races this year? The GOPs are trying to make "deficits" an issue. Do voters know that the state hasn't and cannot legally run a budget deficit? Do they differentiate between the deadlocked Congress and the still functional General Assembly?
""Can you please tell me the name of the Republican candidate for Senate?" and "Can you please tell me the name of the Democratic candidate for Senate?""
Would be interesting, but we can't do that with automated polling. If you can't push a button, you can't ask it.
"What about a question on voter intensity, and relationship to the "Tea Party"? For example, after an "intensity question" and normal party identity, GOP, Dem, Indy, ask a seperate question about Tea Party Identity, and/or Tea Party favorability?"
We've often done various Tea Party ID and favorability questions in various states and nationally. We may do it in NC and OH again.
poll, NC-8, NC-11, NC-2 and NC-7.. We have no polling on them races!!
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