There was a bunch of hubbub Friday about whether Elaine Marshall would or would not want to campaign with Barack Obama. Should she want to? Our numbers can make an argument in either direction but ultimately the answer is probably yes.
In June we found that 30% of voters in the state would be more likely to vote for a candidate endorsed by President Obama while 47% said they would be less likely to and 21% said it wouldn't make a difference either way. Republicans (80%) responded more negatively to an Obama endorsement than Democrats did positively (50%) and 46% of independents said they'd be less inclined to vote for someone endorsed by Obama to only 18% who said more likely.
If you look at those numbers in a vacuum the obvious conclusion would be that Marshall shouldn't let Obama anywhere near him. But another angle to look at it from is who the undecided voters are in the Senate race. Right now 49% of them are Democrats and only 30% are Republicans. They voted for Obama by a 51/43 margin and they still approve of him 48/44. With the folks who haven't decided how to vote yet Obama's a net plus.
You could make the argument that bringing Obama in might hurt Marshall with the folks supporting her who disapprove of Obama but there basically are none of them- only 4% of voters who disapprove of Obama are planning to vote for Marshall. And similarly only 5% of voters who do approve of Obama are planning to vote for Burr.
All in all it doesn't make a big difference either way but Marshall could probably get some small benefit from Obama.