How big an impact is Barack Obama's falling popularity having on this year's election? There are five states we've polled in the last three months where his approval rating is more than 10 points lower than the percentage of the vote he got in the state and all five of them are shaping up pretty badly for Democratic candidates this year:
Iowa: Obama got 54% there in 2008 but his approval rating now stands at 43%. Most polling has suggested Chet Culver will be badly defeated in his reelection bid for Governor and while some pollsters have shown a ray of hope for Roxanne Conlin against Chuck Grassley our numbers do not.
Nevada: Obama got 55% there in 2008 and his approval rating is now 44%. Obama's falling standing in the state has a lot more to do with Harry Reid's precarious situation than usually gets discussed and Democrats have almost no chance in the Governor's race even though the sitting Republican incumbent is among the least popular in the country.
Wisconsin: Obama got 56% there in 2008 and his approval rating is now 45%. That has a lot to do with the fact that Ron Johnson, who no one had heard of six months ago, is running even with Russ Feingold in the Senate race. The GOP is favored, although not overwhelmingly, to take back control of the Governor's mansion.
Michigan: Obama got 57% there in 2008 and his approval rating is now 46%. Democrats are seen as having almost no chance to hold the Governor's office here even though it's a pretty blue state that hasn't voted Republican in a Presidential election since 1988.
Pennsylvania: Obama got 54% there in 2008 and his approval rating is now 43%. It looks very likely that Democrats will lose the Governorship and there's a pretty good chance they'll lose the Senate race too despite the state having gone overwhelmingly Democratic in 2006 and 2008.
Obama won all of these states in 2008 but his unpopularity in them now is a major contributor to the problems Democratic candidates are having in them this year.
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23 comments:
With the exception of Nevada, none of those states are doing particularly poorly on the economic front. So why have his approval ratings fallen so much in those other states?
It should be quite clear by now that anything or anyone presently associated with Obama is destined to realize failure, if not obscurity.
JCordes,
Though the economy remains a rather significant problem for Obama, his falling poll numbers have now become more an issue about his failed policies and liberal agenda. At this point, even an improved economy and better employment numbers will not be enough to save his butt. In ever increasing numbers, people no longer trust him or want him as their President. His credibility is gone and, 20 months in, is essentially a "lame duck" President. He just doesn't realize it yet.
Is there a 50-state ranking of where his approval numbers are?
I imagine they've fallen everywhere, but in many states the fall is barely registering, compared to the states you point out in the post.
I don't think Obama is necessarily the reason for Democrats having a hard time in some of these states. In fact, in several of those states Obama is more popular than the democrat running for offic. In WI for instance Obama's approval rating is 45% while Russ Feingold's is 42%. In Pennsylvania Obama has a 43/50, approval, not good, but better than Gov Rendell who has 35/53. In Nevada Obama is at 44% approval but Reid is at 41%. Then there are the states where Obama is still reasonably popular like California where he has a 54/39 approval and yet Barbara Boxer is in a tough race. In Washington Obama has a 49/47 approval and yet Patty Murray is in trouble.
"With the exception of Nevada, none of those states are doing particularly poorly on the economic front."
Ever heard of Michigan?
PA's not doing so hot either. Not sure about the others.
Anonymous said...
JCordes,
Though the economy remains a rather significant problem for Obama, his falling poll numbers have now become more an issue about his failed policies and liberal agenda. At this point, even an improved economy and better employment numbers will not be enough to save his butt. In ever increasing numbers, people no longer trust him or want him as their President. His credibility is gone and, 20 months in, is essentially a "lame duck" President. He just doesn't realize it yet.
My response:
Was Bill Clinton a "lame duck" when he lost Congress back in '94 with an approval rating which in Gallup would go down to 36%? Was Ronald Reagan a "lame duck" when he lost significant seats in the house in '82 and had until the end of 1983 fairly low approval numbers? Some might not remember but Reagan actually was for much of his first term in the low 40's and even in the 30's before his upswing in late 83 and into 84.
I know you dislike Obama and his agenda, all of your posts make this clear, but you also have to look at historical data and you cannot write the president off--many presidents have second year slumps and most president's parties have lost seats in midterm elections.
And so Republicans pick up governor seats in IA, MI, PA, and WI... and senate seats in PA, WI, and NV.
Serves Democrats right for pushing their tyrannical left-wing extremist agenda on a nation that overwhelmingly rejects it.
We can only hope that his "popularity" is the "hollywood" type, which means he is of no consequence either way, which is better than he deserves. At that point, people *might* concentrate on some of the things the candidates have supported. In most cases cited here, they have supported policies and made choices directly contrary to the will of their constituents. Boxer seems to be the only exception that I see. Some of the Laws she voted for that the Rest of us hate at almost a 2 to 1 ratio over those that love them enjoy at least a plurality of support in the state of the Gays, the Nuts and the Flakes! NO bailouts for Califorina, BTW!!! They made their bed, they need to lie in it for a while!
As another example, Missouri, which was nearly caught up in the wave of Obama hysteria, has rejected Obamacare by landslide margins. 71% reject federal authority to mandate the purchase of health insurance.
When will the tyrannical left ever learn? "the further away (and less accountable) the governmental authority is, the more its strictures are resented and resisted."
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/janetdaley/100049682/us-heads-for-civil-war-over-health-insurance/
"Proposition C carried all 115 counties in Missouri... To have the mandate rejected by 71% of voters in a state Obama missed carrying by only 0.2% is a pretty devastating result."
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/blogs/beltway-confidential/dreadful-results-in-middle-america-for-the-obama-democrats-99953539.html
Christian Liberty said...
And so Republicans pick up governor seats in IA, MI, PA, and WI... and senate seats in PA, WI, and NV.
Serves Democrats right for pushing their tyrannical left-wing extremist agenda on a nation that overwhelmingly rejects it.
My response:
Actually it's far from sure if Dems will lose Senate seats in PA, WI & NV. Infact, polls (including PPP) show Reid now ahead in NV where a few months ago he was behind by double digits. WI and PA, according to polls are close and time will tell.
I think you are right about Dems losing governorships in IA, MI, PA, & WI--but Dems are looking good (according to recent polling) to pick up governorships in CA, MN,HA & CT--and a good shot in CO. Dems are also competitive in Goverors races in Florida and Texas. IF dems come out of the November elections with pick ups in governors races in three key big states: FL, TX & CA--they will have some bragging rights.
I actually think that governors races are going to see a lot of switches from R to D and D to R. Governors are baring the brunt of the recession which begain in 2007 and that we are slowly coming out of today. Governor numbers are down in almost all states. Dems will pick up GOP governorships and Republicans will pick up Dem governorships.
Anon, you can't talk sense into Christian Liberty. He has his drumbeat, and he sticks to it. The drum is his head.
Repeat after me:
Senator Sharron Angle
Senator Pat Toomey
Senator Rand Paul
Senator Ron Johnson
It really helps restore your faith in America!
Dustin, I just can't seem to talk sense into you.
America is becoming more conservative than you understand (or want to admit).
America will increasingly reject big government, not just for this year but for decades.
THE GOVERNMENT BUBBLE has burst! Just like housing bubble or the dotcom bubble, the size of government will INEVITABLY decline. It is an economic necessity.
Americans will no longer tolerate big government, nor the politicians who advocate it (or even condone it).
The crash of the housing bubble also means that Democrats will no longer be able to buy votes with "programs" or "investments" or "entitlements" or even "tax credits". Tax cuts will be DEMANDED.
If you thought the Bush tax cuts were something, you haven't seen anything yet. Pretty soon, no Democrat to the left of Clinton will have any chance of becoming president. The Democratic party MUST move to the right or consign itself to irrelevance.
"Obama's impact" is seen in the massive unemployment that his policies have created. Tax cuts and cuts in government spending resolve recessions. By now it is undeniably the fault of Obama and the Democrats that so many are out of a job for so long. And Americans will ensure that Democrats pay for their destruction of the American economy.
http://dchrist81.blogspot.com/2010/08/another-disappointing-jobs-report.html
The "double dip" will demolish Democrats in 2010 every bit as much as the first wave down sunk McCain's candidacy. And the "double dip" will continue to haunt Obama and the Democrats throughout 2010-2011 (and even into 2012). Until Democrats relent and accept the proper economic policies (lower taxes and lower government spending and less government regulation) the economy will continue to be the Democrats' albatross. Americans will increasingly favor conservative economic policies. Democrats oppose the will of the American people AT THEIR OWN PERIL.
The realization that the "recovery" will be long and slow (assuming no more crises) is becoming more apparent.
http://online.wsj.com/video/pm-report-jobs-recovery-could-take-years/E2DE167D-1248-4B44-A002-76FD5A1C9C92.html?mod=WSJ_Article_Videocarousel_3
Obama's policies have harmed the economy so much... and the economy will harm his party... and his own reelection.
According to a July CBS poll, "only 13% of Americans feel President Obama's economic plans have helped them." Which leaves 87% that either feel that Obama has failed America or that Obama has made the economy worse in their experience.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704682604575369513252243680.html
Democrats will face a landslide of historic proportions... and deservedly so.
"Dustin, I just can't seem to talk sense"
You should have just stopped there, because you got that right.
Fact: taxes are now lower under Obama than they have been at any time since Truman, and 40% of the stimulus which Republicans opposed involved tax cuts to middle class families.
http://www.forbes.com/2010/03/18/tea-party-ignorant-taxes-opinions-columnists-bruce-bartlett_2.html
Fact: economists agree that government spending pulls the economy out of recessions, and spending cuts stagnate the economy when in recession.
40%? Should have been 100% tax relief. Shouldn't have been held hostage to corrupt kickbacks to union cronies. Shouldn't have been held hostage to regulatory changes and growth in bureaucracy. Republicans were right to oppose that bureaucratic monstrosity and spoils scheme.
Democrats will impose the biggest tax increase in history if they don't stop holding the Bush tax cuts hostage to their agenda wish list. And if they let the Bush tax cuts expire, it's people in the lowest tax brackets that will suffer the greatest increase in taxes. The 10% bracket becomes 15%. Child tax credits are cut. The marriage penalty returns.
Fact: economists agree that government spending IS THE PROBLEM, not the cure. Spending cuts by the government encourage WISER spending by the private sector in voluntary transactions. People are more wise when they are spending their own money, not redistributing others' wealth.
Your "economist" are big government apologists that use statistical tricks to imply that government spending is beneficial. The only thing government spending accomplishes is it helps politicians hit arbitrary statistical targets and buy votes with others' money. The economy might technically be said to be "out of recession" for a time because others' money was spent wastefully, but the economy is actually the worse the increased debt and lower utility.
As the history of federal taxation and spending shows:
http://i.usatoday.net/news/graphics/2010/2010-04-13-deficit/deficit-va.jpg
tax receipts as a proportion of the economy are near record post-WWII highs. Americans have never tolerated so much taxes being taken out of the economy for more than a few years without demanding a tax cut. Democrats threaten to allow the biggest tax increase in history if they do not submit a clean bill for the extension of the Bush tax cuts. If the Bush tax cuts are allowed to expire, it will likely push us into record high tax burdens (% of the economy).
As the data clearly shows, the federal government SPENDS TOO MUCH; it does not tax too little. The % of the economy that taxes represents remains relatively steady even when leftists try to raise tax rates. More tax revenue CANNOT be squeezed out of the economy. The government MUST cut spending. Too high taxes and too much regulation are the causes of the deficit and impaired economy, not any lack of revenue to the ravenous government.
Americans WILL demand tax cuts. They will know that the government is too greedy and demanding too much. All the empty promises from politicians and government apologists will not assuage the pain that taxes cause struggling households. They will not trust government to spend and creates schemes. They will demand more of their own money remains with them with each paycheck.
"Tea Partyers ... were asked whether (taxes) are higher, lower or the same as when Barack Obama was inaugurated last year. More than two-thirds thought that taxes are higher today, and only 4% thought they were lower; the rest said they are the same."
These responses are not unique to Tea Partyers. A sample of likely voters of all ideologies will produce similar results.
"Sixty-six percent (66%) of Americans already believe the country is overtaxed, but 46% expect their taxes to go up under the Obama administration. Just 12% think they will go down."
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/business/federal_budget/69_oppose_higher_taxes_to_lower_deficit
It doesn't matter that Obama and Dems haven't raised taxes YET (a technicality since they HAVE passed tax increases that will go into effect later, and they will allow tax cuts to expire, and they propose even MORE tax increases to go into effect.) So many people feel like taxes have gone up that they will not tolerate any more taxes. Your statistics don't mesh with people's perceptions. You're the insensitive one trying to deny people's pain by showing them statistics of past tax rates. Statistics don't buy food or pay rent.
"Democrats will impose the biggest tax increase in history if they don't stop holding the Bush tax cuts hostage to their agenda wish list."
Dude, stop listening to Sarah Palin and other rightwing nutjobs that you so obviously regurgitate. Know the facts before you spew.
http://politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2010/aug/04/sarah-palin/sarah-palin-said-democrats-planning-largest-tax/
"it will likely push us into record high tax burdens (% of the economy)."
Also a lie:
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/08/06/palin-spars-with-politifact/
The Bush tax cuts have massively increased our deficit. But of course you care more about wealthy people getting money than our government balancing the budget.
Obama and the Democrats passed tax cuts ONLY to the middle class and below, as well as to small businesses, while Bush's tax cuts disproportionately benefited the wealthy, and those are the only ones that will expire, while the tax cuts for the middle class will be renewed. So get real.
Now that's a bit of brilliant illogic right there. "Yes, a large majority of Teatards erroneously believe that taxes HAVE gone up, but a smaller majority of other people believe that taxes WILL go up, so the Teatards aren't wrong!" Do you even read your posts or just vomit on the keyboard and hit 'Publish Your Comment,' Herbie? Sad to see your prescription ran out again, but you're clearly making up for lost time.
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