Friday, August 27, 2010

Republican Disconnect

One of the most interesting things about this fall's election is that the Republicans in Congress may take control even though less than half of the people planning to vote for them think they're doing a good job.

Our last national generic ballot poll found the Republicans ahead 45-42 despite the fact that Congressional Republicans had a 24/61 approval rating. Even among respondents who said they were going to vote Republican the Congressional GOP could muster only a 44/35 approval.

John Boehner and Mitch McConnell are going to claim a mandate when their party does well at the polls this fall but they don't even have much of one with the people who are going to vote Republican this fall, much less with the population at large. If they keep on doing what they're doing the GOP may well take control of the House this fall and then lose it right back in 2012.

I'm really interested in whether Republican voters would like to see their party's leadership in Congress replaced. It's not likely to happen- you don't tend to lose your spot after a good election cycle- but it speaks to a major disconnect between the folks voting Republican and the Republican leaders themselves. We're delving into some of these questions as it relates to Ohio GOP voters and John Boehner this weekend, and we'll probably do some of that on our next national poll as well.


DBL said...

Glad you're finally asking this question. Anything less than 2/3 "Boehner for speaker" is a negative sign for him. In most states I'd say that 42% yes/34% no/24% don't know would be good for him.

But this is Ohio. Every Republican "likely voter" in Ohio knows who he is. So anyone who answers "don't know" will be a "I don't want Boehner, but I don't know if there's someone better." The numbers should also be higher here because this is where people should like him most.

All of the other six people in Republican leadership have been in the House for 9 years or less. Cantor did join leadership during the Bush era, although he was new in the House.

McCarthy or McMorris-Rodgers would be popular speaker candidates. Just imagine McMorris-Rodgers going into labor right in the middle of the speaker vote.

Anonymous said...

Republicans are generally still mad at the big-spending GOP delegation that lost the House. No one in the general public knows who John Boehner is or whether he was part of the problem or a good choice to be part of the solution - probably even in Ohio.

PPM said...

I'd really like to see the regional polling on Congressional approval and generic ballot.

I recently moved from upstate red-ish NY to a blue-ish town in Tennessee. My sense is that there is much stronger anti-Dem sentiment in even this blue-ish tennessee town than in my old red NY town.

In NY people have been scraping the W stickers off their cars. In TN I think they are looking for new ways to put tea party affiliations on the bumpers.

Anonymous said...

Neither party is popular. They both suck. Republicans and Democrats only care about expanding the size of government and taking away freedom. The GOP wont change the direction of the country unless they change leadership. The same way it is for the Dems.

Christian Liberty said...

The post should be called Democrat Disconnect and highlight the infuriating disconnect on the left.

What the left still stubbornly refuses to admit, despite all the evidence, is that those who disapprove of Republicans do so because they want Republicans to be MORE conservative, not less.

Until Democrats admit how conservative America is and how conservative Americans want their elected officials to be, their ignorance and stubbornness will continue to cost them politically.

Christian Liberty said...

Voters trust Republicans more than Democrats on nine out of 10 key issues (and for a while, it was all 10 out of 10 key issues)

"Republicans are cleaning up with a voting bloc that accounts for 26% of the country and could end up being the most important group of people at the polls this fall: voters who hate both Congressional Democrats and Congressional Republicans. The GOP has a 57-19 generic lead with this group of voters"

It amazes me how PPP is disregarding their own poll findings: those who disapprove of Republicans and Democrats are a sizable bloc that overwhelmingly prefers Republicans. Less than half of voters think Republicans are doing a good job because they believe that Republicans ARE NOT CONSERVATIVE ENOUGH. The more Republicans move to the right, the more popular Republicans become with disaffected voters (if the voters can believe their campaign promises). 2010 voters want Republicans to stand by CONSERVATIVE principles. The further Republicans can GOVERN to the right, the more Republicans will remain in power. Because Conservatism is what America wants and what America needs.

Anonymous said...

Hahahahahahahaha, you gotta love this one. So now a majority-vote total doesn't give one a mandate, rather that mandate is bestowed when telephone pollsters tell us a majority "likes" the party. Give us all a break.

Keith Doxen said...

The Republicans aren't popular and what folks need to realise is that people aren't voting FOR the Republicans. They're voting against the Democrats. Poll after poll shows that Americans are NOT becoming more conservative on issues from gay marriage to Social Security to education spending. The culprit seems to be Democratic policies like the bailouts, the individual mandate in ObamaCare, and the liberal tone-deafness over the deficit and the mosque. But Republican candidates see this election as a referendum on entitlements and abortion. Once they get into power and start trying to cut Medicare and ban "sodomy," you'll see them shown the door quite quickly. They can't do anything without a Republican president though so my guess is in 2014 they lose the House. Which means that yes we end up with President Romney in 2012. I just can't see Obama being reelected. He doesn't connect. The real question is who beats Romney in 2016.

Anonymous said...

Exactly. I'm usually for "conservatives" but not necessarily for Republicans. I have given donations to some individual candidates all over the country this election cycle - all of whom were Republican. I won't give to the Republican Party because I don't trust them to fight very hard for anything except moderation and staying in office.

Anonymous said...

But it's still better for the Republican candidates to win right now than for Democrats to win. At least with more Repbulicans and fewer Democrats in congress we'd have a better chance of getting the right kinds of legislation passed and avoiding the disasters. A President Romney would be an eyesore. If he runs, I'll probably go for a third party candidate unless it looks like Romney (yuk) needs every single vote to beat out the Democrat (who is virtually certain to be worse).

gs said...

I thought that conservatives insist that American sovereignty be maintained against the encroachments of the UN and similar influences.

I am quite sure that the Big Content industries, as exemplified by the MPAA and RIAA, are staunchly leftist.

So the number of Republican bigwigs on what calls itself The Congressional International Anti-Piracy Caucus is...noteworthy.

I don't trust Republican politicians. I'm rooting for divided government after November, not for the GOP.

NB: The above is not intended as a comment on the merits & otherwise of intellectual-property laws. It refers to the practical politics of rewarding your allies and impeding your opponents.

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