Wednesday, August 25, 2010

Sink starts out ahead

Rick Scott's an unpopular candidate with a divided party and because of that Alex Sink begins the general election for Governor in Florida with a 7 point lead. Sink has 41% to 34% for Scott and 8% for Bud Chiles.

Sink is doing well because she has a higher degree of party unity than Scott does and because she's the favorite with independents. 72% of Democrats say they'll vote for Sink while only 57% of Republicans are committed to voting for Scott. Sink also has a 37-28 advantage with independents.

Scott has dreadful personal favorability numbers with 49% of voters holding an unfavorable opinion of him while only 28% see him favorably. His numbers are even worse with independents than they are with the population at large- a 54% majority of them see him in a negative light.

Sink is still largely unknown but she has good numbers with the people who do know her. 35% have a favorable opinion to 23% with a negative one. Scott's chances in the general election may rest on his ability to define her with the 42% of folks who have no opinion right now before she gets the chance to define herself.

Republicans hope that Bud Chiles will play a spoiler role for Sink's chances this fall but at this point he's actually getting 8% of GOP votes and only 6% of Democratic votes, suggesting that for now his presence in the race is hurting Scott.

This race is almost definitely going to tighten up. 22% of Republicans are undecided and only 11% of Democrats are so Scott has a lot of room to grow. Still Sink goes into the general election as the favorite and given that our March Florida poll found her trailing Bill McCollum 44-31, that's quite an amazing turn around.

One other note in closing the book on McCollum's candidacy- this poll found Sink would have started out with an 8 point lead against him so there's not a real strong argument that he would have been more electable. Republicans were going to have an uphill climb in this race regardless of who won the nomination.

Full results here


Chuck T said...

That's very good news for the Dems. It's likely Nov. 2 will not be a great night for Dems overall but they will get some bragging rights if they pick up FL governorship. Also if they pick up Texas and California governorships. Why these are so important is because of redistricting and whose governor of the state will matter. I think Sink needs to keep positive, but Scott has some ethical problems with his business affairs which will undoubtedly become an issue.

Anonymous said...

As in almost all races so far, GOP will come together in end. Just wait for Sink's favs to tank as Scott will nuke her the same way he nuked McCollum.

wt said...

Off topic, but I have a suggestion for your next poll -- Miller v. McAdams.

Anonymous said...

I second wt's suggestion. An Alaska poll would be interesting, even if it seems uncompetitive. Nobody expected Murkowski to lose either.

Anonymous said...

That's enhanced by speculation about Murkowski running as a AIP candidate and Tony Knowles possibly replacing McAdams.

Anonymous said...

I think it's hilarious that Democrats could still blow both the Florida and Colorado governor races despite being handed massive advantages.

Dustin Ingalls said...

"I think it's hilarious that Democrats could still blow both the Florida and Colorado governor races despite being handed massive advantages."

What makes you think Dems could blow either one? This is our second poll in two months showing Sink with a high single-digit lead, and our latest CO poll shows Hickenlooper romping Maes with or without Tancredo.

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