We haven't done a vote on where we poll in quite a long time. That's more of an early cycle thing where we're trying to figure out which races are competitive and which aren't, and now that we pretty much know the answer to that we're tightening the rotation of states we poll and focusing heavily on places where there is a tight race for both Governor and the Senate.
But we'll do one next week: give us your nominations on where to poll next week and we'll pick finalists and put it to a vote starting Monday. We're not going to do any House races- just states that have a Governor's and/or Senate race in 2010. Fire away!
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71 comments:
Oregon governor. Rasmussen has the only public polls on that race and getting someone else's view on if Dudley is really doing as well as Rass say he is would be quite interesting to see.
Delaware. We badly need a Primary poll there. You could do the AL House seat if you wanted but the Senate Race certainly.
West Virginia also needs a new Senate poll.
Maine. Is it competitive? If the GOP has a huge wave, is there any possibility of knocking off Pingree?
Minnesota Governor!
West Virginia Sen, Maryland Gov and Sen, Connecticut Sen and Gov, Michigan Gov
West Virginia
Connecticut
Please poll Maine. I need to know how this Gubernatorial race really looks. The Tea Parties are all riled up, and I fear the worst.
MO-Sen, WI-Sen, or OH-Sen.
I would like to see Ohio Sen/Gov.
Please add Delaware and/or Maryland to the list.
Alaska Sen, obviously.
Kentucky Senate Race. You guys haven't done it in two months and last time it was a tie. Rasmussen says Rand is up by 9 but I don't believe it.
Maryland's 3rd Congressional District! While it has a well-known, dynasty incumbent, it is fairly competitive on paper (only D+6). I would like to see if the favored Republican (Jim Wilhelm) is making any inroads there...
Kentucky, latest poll said it was a tie in the Senate race.
KY-Sen and CT-Sen
How about Rhode Island?
BTW, I'd like to see a poll on how the public feels about President Obama's speeches to schoolchildren. It seems he's going to make these speeches an annual event.
KY Senate, please. It's been a while and there's just too much conflicting info coming outta there.
Can we get a Georgia poll, and ask about Deal's ethical issues.
NV Sen, IL Gov & Sen, FL Gov & Sen
Agreed on Oregon
MAINE - no polling since...June?
Both congressional races are potentially competitive - but are they? It seems like another safe Democrat district is suddenly in play every week - does this extend to New England?
Is the gov race truly 3-way? Can LePage become the state's first conservative governor in the modern era?
Eh, guess Rasmussen has been polling Maine governor each month - but it'd be fun to see PPP publish something more Republican-friendly, and get the congressional results.
Alaska: Sen/Gov - Joe Miller's likely shocking upset in the GOP primary could throw the Senate race into contention. It'd be great to have a baseline on this race. The governor's race could be competitive too, there's just too little Alaska polling. Also, Palin favorables in her home state would be fascinating. Did she put Miller over the top?
Nevada: Sen/Gov - Sure, the governor's race is likely a foregone conclusion, but the Senate race needs to be polled more. Angle looks like she may have recovered slightly from Reid's initial onslaught, but Reid still seems to lead, barely.
Georgia: Sen/Gov - The governor's race should be very competitive, and the senate race could be a sleeper, though that seems unlikely now.
You guys have shied away from congressional races. Yet most senate races are well polled and congressional races aren't. American Action Forum has been doing a lot of the polling and they are a Republican firm.
In the absence of congressional races, I'd say the Delaware and New Hampshire Republican senate primaries. With the results of the Alaska race, it's possible Castle or Ayotte might be in trouble.
If you were to do House districts, poll out here in California. There are eight districts potentially in play (3, 11, 18, 20, 44, 45, 47, 50), yet there's been no congressional polling.They're divided between GOP and Democrat. It's possible the Republicans might have a net of around 39 seats and then lose it when California results come in.
TX-Gov, CA-Gov, CA-Sen:
My hunch is that Obama's unpopularity is dragging Bill White down, and propping Rick Perry
up. Also think Jerry Brown is another in a long list of weak Democratic candidates this cycle.
Poll a national sales tax (VAT) vs an annual national wealth tax targeting the very affluent (over 50M in net worth). Also, poll the perception of public service unions. I'm afraid that the Dems are going to be negatively impacted by its close ties to the unions this fall.
CT-Sen and/or the NH GOP Senate Primary. The latter has had a surprising dearth of polling.
Vermont or Maine, two states that are seriously underpolled.
Maine. No polling there. The right wing teabagger is LePage, and one has to wonder if even Maine will allow these kinds of political positions this year.
Georgia. No polling since the primary. How's Barnes, who's a good Democratic recruit doing?
South Carolina. Absolutely nothing since the long ago primary. Does Vincent Sheheen, who's been gathering the business community endorsement, stand a chance in the governor's race? What do people think of Alvin Greene?
Alaska. Now this is the obvious one. There's no reason not to. It hasn't been polled at all except by you in February.
It would be nice to know what you are doing for Kos, that way we are not listing useless choices. I'm sure you won't commission a poll for Kos of one state, and then do one independent poll.
Why did you guys start doing House races and just stop doing them?
I forgot to say that the added bonus of doing Maine is an Olympia Snowe & Susan Collins & moderate vs conservative GOP poll.
At the very least I'd like to see polling in a state that hasn't already been polled in the past three or four months...
Minnesota governor
Alaska - with and without Murkowski on the ballot as the Libertarian candidate. Murkowski had a 20-point lead on McAdams in early polling; it'll be interesting to see how much of Murkowski's support transitions to Miller and how much finds him too radical to be palatable.
Kentucky - PPP hasn't done this one in a while, and it'd be interesting to see if Aqua Buddha and Rand Paul's on-camera denials of a drug problem in Kentucky are hurting him in PPP's numbers. In the last two polls Ras (n=500) had a ten-point Paul lead, while CN2 Politics (n=803) had a 1-point Conway lead.
Texas Governor might be good to see; it's only had two polls, both Ras, in the last two months.
I like seeing polling for New Hampshire, but right at the moment the most interesting not-recently-polled races there are the congressional primaries. You did Delaware three weeks ago, so that's fairly recent, and polling picked up in Nevada, too.
Kentucky Conway vs Paul
Georgia sen/gov, interresting house seats; Maine gov, Snow and Collins approval, possible 2012 snow matchups. PLease!
AK SEN!!!!
Maybe TX GOV.
CT-Sen: Let's see what kind of bounce Linda McMahon has garnered post-primary.
DE-Sen: Have we seen any Castle/O'Donnell polling?
GA-Sen: I've heard rumblings Michael Thurmond could keep Isakson below 60%.
NY-Sen (B): Has Bruce Blakeman imploded after his debate gaffe? Also, is Gail Goode getting any traction vs. Gillibrand in the Dem primary?
DE-Sen
KY-Sen
MO-Sen
CO-Sen
I'd love an update on Texas.
While I prefer Maine, I do see value in polling Connecticut - the Senate could be tumbling into play, and there's Gov as well.
By the time an Alaska poll is completed there's an excellent chance it will be old news: Miller wins, Lisa declines 3rd party bid, the DSCC still can't remember their nominee's name.
Kentucky Senate forsure.
I second the idea on polling more house races. There has been news lately about a competitive house.
I say poll California District 8-(Nancy Pelosi's district) and see if the house speaker is hanging in there.
CO, especially the GOV race. Tancredo continues to drop in the polls and everyone wants to look at both 2 and 3 way races
New Mexico Governor and its 3 House districts need to be polled.
Wisconsin. Ras has been the only one polling it, Johnson and Feingold and Barrett and Walker have been aggressively engaging in TV ad wars. Numbers may have moved since then.
New Mexico. Only 1 poll since June, this weeks Rasmussen poll. Again, both candidates have released a barrage of ads and can also poll house races.
Delaware.
I am interested in how Castle fairs against O'Donnell in the GOP primary, and how O'Donnell fairs against Coons. The Tea Party Express is about to launch an ad campaign for her, and they have had considerable results in GOP primaries in Nevada and Alaska.
AK-Sen - both a two-way between Miller and McAdams and a three-way with Murkowski as the Libertarian nominee (unlikely, but it would be interesting to see how that would play out... perhaps a good showing in a public poll would push her into the race which would be preferable to having Miller win the seat).
DE-Sen - Coons has been losing ground against Castle, but has been gaining against O'Donnell. With the recent victory by Miller, could she beat uber-moderate Castle?
I think the biggest race with the most national implications would be California. California has been a deep blue state for at least two decades. If Sen. Barbara Boxer goes down, and Whitman beats out Brown for the Governor's mansion, it is going to have major repercussions across the land.
The downside to doing the Bear State is there are already a number of firms polling it.
Another major race you might consider is the Washington state US Senate race. You haven't been there since the primaries. They've got the mini-drama going on there with the loser Didlier refusing to endorse Rossi unless Dino meets certain requirements, and Rossi refusing to comply. That should be fun to poll. :-)
And, of course, there is the Alaska entertainment where Miller may have won, and Murkowski exploring running on the Libertarian ticket.
Anyway, those are three states that are outside of your usual radar range you may wish to consider.
New York, New York
When 70% of Americans reject a mosque being built where a building was destroyed by an Islamic terrorist attack, how much does it make Gillibrand vulnerable? Schumer? Cuomo?
Gillibrand couldn't get 50% support even before she went against her constituents on the mosque issue. How vulnerable will she be when Republicans unite around a candidate?
Arizona should be fun. While most polls show Brewer solidly ahead only two pollsters have done the state since May (just Ras and the Rocky Mountain poll), so it's very worth seeing if you find something they don't. Plus, a generic ballot would be good in a state where half it's Congressional races are competitive.
How foolish must leftists feel that they opposed the Restoring Honor 8/28 Rally? It is more obvious than ever that conservatives and Republicans are the ones who do honor to the legacy of Martin Luther King.
Race-baiting hucksters like Sharpton, Jackson, Rangel, and Waters ought to be ashamed of themselves. But of course, they obvious have no shame. If they had any sense (on race relations or any other issue), they would be Republicans. Throughout all of our history up to the current day and into the foreseeable future, Republicans have always been the honorable party on race... and Democrats have always been the shameless hucksters that bring disgrace upon themselves with their lies and demagoguery.
It's a five way race in Maine, although two of the three independent candidates have little hope. Race features Tea Party Republican prone to outrageous statements; longtime Dem legislator (former House Speaker, current Senate president); and three independents: Washington lawyer who hasn't really lived in Maine in over twenty years, a local business man who has dumped $500K of his own cash into his campaign, and local business recruiter with little money.
Only polls to date (two since primary) are from Rasmussen.
Gerald Weinand
Editor, Dirigo Blue
Rockland, Maine
Poll Maine. There are several counter-indicators on recent political trends since the last election - gay marriage was defeated in referendum but so were several tax-cutting referendums in the same year. So far only Rasmussen has polled the gubernatorial race, so it will be interesting to see if you match up with them at all.
Connecticuttt. I'm very interested in CT-4. It would also be cool to poll public opinion of gay marriage now that we've had it here for about two years. Ooh and the governor's race!
South Carolina governors race!
SC governor's race - should be an interesting one
Every week now until the election:
OH
PA
MO
KY
FL
NV
CA
Delaware and Alaska Senate!!
WV Senate. TN House seats(8,6,5,4). Alaska Sen. Race 3 way, and 2 way with each potential GOP candidate, and possibly generic to see if the conflict has hurt both Republican candidates.
VT,CT,MD,MN,ME Governors with Senate races where applicable.
I agree with the majority. I would like to see some numbers from Maine. If Rasmussen is correct then this is a lean R race. I have trouble believing that and would like to see more polling. Also SD-AL and Gov. Rasmussen also shows constant Republican leads there in the House race and I would like to see some other data. The Governors race would be a nice bonus. I know you can’t but I wish you could poll Indiana. :( Thanks!!!!
South Dakota. We need to know if Stephanie Herseth Sandlin is really in trouble and Rasmussen has been the only pollster to poll it, and is showing dire results for her.
My vote is for the South Carolina governor
Poll North Carolina House races!!!! You are suppose to be a North Carolina Polling company and you have polled them yet!!!
ME-Gov and VT-Gov need some no-Rasmussen poll.
I don't think votes should count if the comment is totally illiterate and uses multiple exclamation points.
I would like to see the South Carolina polls about the governor's race. With all the recent activity in the state, it might be a good race to see what voters think.
oregan gov+sen MA Gov NY gov TX gv MN Gov Wiscosn sen or gov maine gov co sen co gov DE primaries CA gov CA Sen and in ma hypothetical machups against scott brown including vicki k. and joe Kennedy
DE-Sen (primary especially is worrying me, I really hope Castle doesn't lose the race here)
CT-Sen (boring race because McMahon is probably losing by high single digits or more, but I guess it's interesting to see if there's a continued trend away from Blumenthal.)
NV-Sen (so overpolled, but it's the most exciting race out there right now, so I guess it never hurts to have another)
Poll West Virginia. Rasmussen is out showing only the Democrat leading by 6 points!
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